Updated USDA Supply/Demand Forecasts Released Friday

Posted on 07/06/2020 5:06 AM

Trump to host Mexico president and perhaps Canada PM Trudeau on Wednesday

 


Washington Focus


 

Senate and House lawmakers are on their July 4 recess but House committee action is scheduled related to some fiscal year 2021 appropriations.

 

House:

     Late afternoon on Monday:
House FY 2021 Agriculture Appropriations bill markup via House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee. Link to draft bill text (see bill summary below in box). Funding details: Total discretionary funding $23.98 billion, a $487 million increase over FY 2020 enacted. Total discretionary and mandatory funding $153 billion, a $331 million increase over FY 2020 enacted. The House Democratic bill would block the Trump administration from limiting food stamp eligibility and would undo line-speed waivers for meat and poultry processing plants, while boosting funding for USDA — it would block funding to implement a December 2019 rule by President Trump’s administration to tighten work requirements for able-bodied adults without dependents who receive aid from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP/food stamps). It would also require officials to end any waivers for meat or poultry processing line-speed limits that were given during the Covid-19 emergency period, and bar them from issuing new waivers. The federal government in April approved a record number of line-speed waivers for poultry slaughterhouses in a single month, which worker-safety advocates and unions have said increases the risk of on-the-job injuries. The measure includes nearly $1.1 billion for rural broadband expansion, a $435 million increase over fiscal 2020. The Food and Drug Administration would receive $3.2 billion in discretionary funding, a $40.8 million increase.

 

     On Thursday, House FY 2021 Agriculture Appropriations full committee markup.

 

Bill Summary:

 

Rural Development and Infrastructure – The bill provides a total of more than $4.214 billion for rural development programs. These programs help create an environment for economic growth by providing business and housing opportunities and building sustainable rural infrastructure for the modern economy.
 

  • Rural Broadband – The legislation invests over $1.055 billion, an increase of $435 million above the FY 2020 enacted level, in the expansion of broadband service to provide economic development opportunities and improved education and healthcare services. This includes $990 million for the ReConnect program. These significant investments in broadband reflect a commitment to enabling Americans in rural communities to access digital tools necessary to improve health, educational, and economic outcomes.
  • Critical Infrastructure – The legislation includes responsible investments in infrastructure to help rural areas of the country access basic utilities. This includes $1.45 billion for rural water and waste program loans, and over $610 million in water and waste grants for clean and reliable drinking water systems and sanitary waste disposal systems. An additional $6.9 billion in loan authority is provided for rural electric and telephone infrastructure loans.
  • Rural Housing Loans and Rental Assistance – The bill provides a total of $24 billion in loan authority for the Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program. The bill includes $1 billion in direct single family housing loans, meeting the estimated need for these loans, which provide home loan assistance to low-income rural families, many of whom would have few loan options for purchasing a home because of their geographical location. In addition, a total of $1.450 billion is provided for rental assistance and rental vouchers for affordable rental housing for low-income families and the elderly in rural communities for renewal of all existing rental assistance contracts.
     

Food and Nutrition Programs – The legislation contains discretionary funding, as well as mandatory funding required by law, for food and nutrition programs within the Department of Agriculture. This includes funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and child nutrition programs.
 

  • Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) – The bill provides $5.75 billion in discretionary funding for WIC, which is $298 million above the budget request.  
  • Child nutrition programs – The bill provides for $25.131 billion in mandatory funding for child nutrition programs. This is an increase of $1.516 billion above the FY 2020 enacted level. This funding will provide free or reduced-price school lunches and snacks for children who qualify for the program. The bill provides $552 million for the Summer Food Service Program to ensure low-income children continue to receive nutritious meals when school is not in session. In addition, the bill provides $50 million for the Summer EBT program, $35 million for school kitchen equipment grants, and $15 million for school breakfast expansion grants.
  • Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) – The bill provides for $68.277 billion in required mandatory spending for SNAP. This includes $3 billion for the SNAP reserve fund.
     

International Food Assistance Programs – The legislation contains $2 billion for international food aid and to promote U.S. agricultural exports overseas. This includes $1.775 billion for Food for Peace grants and $235 million for the McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition program. These programs work to reduce famine and increase food security overseas.
 

Food and Drug Administration (FDA) – The FDA receives a total of $3.212 billion in discretionary funding in the bill, an increase of $40.8 million above the 2020 enacted level. Total funding for the FDA, including revenue from user fees, is $5.99 billion. Within this total, the Committee provides targeted increases for medical product and food safety activities, including new initiatives to advance new influenza vaccine manufacturing technologies, support for a new, crosscutting activity enhancing food and medical product safety and includes funding to develop a framework for regulating CBD products.  In addition, the bill includes a strong focus on continuing FDA’s efforts to enable faster responses to foodborne illness outbreaks and increase the safety and cybersecurity of medical devices. The bill also appropriates $70 million to accelerate medical product development as authorized in the 21st Century Cures Act.
 

Food Safety and Inspection Service – The legislation includes $1.087 billion for food safety and inspection programs. These mandatory inspection activities help ensure the safety and productivity of the country’s meat and poultry industry, and keep safe, healthy food on American tables. The funding provided will maintain nearly 8,800 frontline inspection personnel for meat, poultry, and egg products at more than 6,400 facilities across the country.
 

Marketing Programs – The bill provides $190 million, $2 million above 2020 and $42 million above the request, to facilitate the movement of agriculture products and open market opportunities. This includes $18 million for the National Organic Program to protect the integrity of the USDA Organic label and $16.5 million for the new hemp production program. The bill also provides $20 million in discretionary funds to the Agricultural Marketing Service and Rural Development for the Local Agriculture Market Program to continue supporting local food and value-added agriculture.
 

Farm Programs – The legislation provides $1.835 billion for farm programs, which is $30.3 million above the fiscal year 2020 level. This includes $5 million to resolve ownership and succession of farmland issues, also known as heirs property.  This funding will continue support for various farm, conservation, and emergency loan programs, and help American farmers and ranchers. It will also meet estimates of demand for farm loan programs.
 

Animal and Plant Health – The legislation includes $1.07 billion – $27 million above the fiscal year 2020 enacted level – for the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. This funding will support programs to help control or eradicate plant and animal pests and diseases that can be crippling to U.S. producers. The funding level provides increases that will help address harmful pests and diseases such as spotted lanternfly and chronic wasting disease and support the growing needs of veterinary biological products such as vaccines and diagnostic tests. while maintaining increases from past years for citrus greening. 
 

Conservation Programs – The bill provides $1 billion to help farmers, ranchers, and other private landowners conserve and protect their land. This includes $167 million for infrastructure for watershed and flood prevention and watershed rehabilitation projects.
 

Agricultural Research – The bill provides $3.3 billion – $90 million above the fiscal year 2020 level – for agriculture research programs, including the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA). This funding will support research at all ARS facilities to help mitigate and stop devastating crop diseases, improve food safety and water quality, increase production, and combat antimicrobial resistance. This funding also includes important research investments in U.S. land-grant colleges and universities, including a significant increase for the 1890 institutions, and for the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s premier competitive research program.
 

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – Included in the bill is $304 million for the CFTC, which is the same as the request.
 

Bill language
 

  • The bill includes language to block the Able-Bodied Adults Without Dependents final rule (ABAWD) and the Standard Utility Allowance rule (SUA) proposed rule.
  • The bill includes language to block USDA from granting line-speed waivers at meat processing facilities during the public health emergency.
  • The bill includes language requiring the Secretary to submit to the Committee documents the Department cited as the basis for its decision to cancel the Forest Service application for the Rainy River Watershed Withdrawal in Minnesota.
  • The bill continues language allowing the Secretary to waive matching fund requirements for the Specialty Crop Research Initiative.

 

 

The U.S. Senate’s two-week recess continues to July 20.

 

     There is growing support for a new round of fiscal stimulus when the chamber reconvenes, as enhanced unemployment benefits under the Cares Act are set to expire at the end of July. Regarding additional ag aid, discussions on that topic continue among staffers and others in both chambers. The House-passed stimulus package includes ag-related aid. One of the issues between House and Senate leaders will be what conditions, if any, are put on funding via USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), both existing funding and a possible additional boost to its borrowing authority. House Ag Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) wants more Ag panel say-so in CCC operations. The latest House ag aid package does not include increased CCC borrowing authority, but the Senate version will likely include a boost from the current $30 billion cap with no restrictions. Ag aid ahead will likely include future direct payments impacting 2020 crop producers, biofuel aid, and payments for producers who had to euthanize their animals due to Covid-19-related impacts.

 

     The Senate’s version of the Agriculture appropriations bill had been slated for consideration last week but was postponed due to disagreements over issues not related to agriculture.

 

President Donald Trump's schedule this week:

 

     • Monday: Lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
     • Tuesday: Lunch with VP Mike Pence, and he will participate in a conversation about "safely reopening American schools."
     • Wednesday: Will host Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador at the White House.
     • Thursday: Will host a roundtable with Hispanic leaders.

 


Hearings and Events This Week


 

Confab at the White House on Wednesday. With the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) implemented on July 1, President Donald Trump on Wednesday hosts Mexico's Andrés Manuel López Obrador on that and likely other topics. A late attendee may be Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who said he was still unsure whether he would attend to celebrate the new USMCA, citing concern about possible U.S. tariffs on aluminum.

 

Note: Unless otherwise noted, hearings will be held remotely.

 

Monday, July 6


     • Covid-19 and EU. American Enterprise Institute hosts a live-streamed conversation with Maarten Verwey, the European Commission’s director-general for economic and financial affairs. He’ll discuss the evolving design and efforts of the EC around the pandemic.
     • Trade policy. EU’s top trade negotiator Phil Hogan will address the OECD’s “Global Forum on Responsible Business Conduct.”
     • Agriculture-Rural Development-FDA 2020 appropriations. House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee markup.
     • FY 2021 appropriations, State, Foreign operatons. House State-Foreign Operations Appropriations Subcommittee meeting to consider its fiscal 2021 spending bill.
     • Supreme Court decisions are due. As the court nears the end of its current term, the justices have yet to rule on several high-profile issues, including access to President Trump’s financial records and whether employers can be forced to cover birth control in their health plans.
     • Russia & Putin. Atlantic Council holds a webinar on "Russia's New Tsar? The Aftermath of Putin's Constitutional Referendum."
     • Economic recession. Brookings Institution discussion on "How deep will the Covid-19 recession be?"

Tuesday, July 7


     • Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin take part in a virtual discussion on the economy hosted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). Also, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Randal Quarles delivers remarks via webcast on the Financial Stability Board at an Exchequer Club luncheon.
     • Protecting workers' pay during Covid-19. House Financial Services — Subcommittee on National Security, International Development, and Monetary Policy hearing on "Paycheck Security: Economic Perspectives on Alternative Approaches to Protecting Workers' Pay During Covid-19."
     • Covid-19 and the workforce. House Education and Labor Higher Education and Workforce Investment Subcommittee hearing on "A Major Test: Examining the Impact of COVID-19 on the Future of Higher Education."
     • Energy and Water Development, FY 2021 appropriations. House Appropriations Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee markup of appropriations for FY 2021.
     • FY 2021 appropriations, Interior, Environment. House Interior-Environment Appropriations Subcommittee meeting to consider its FY 2021 spending bill.
     • Politics. Democratic candidates will face off in New Jersey. At stake in Tuesday’s primary is the chance to try to unseat Rep. Jeff Van Drew, who switched to the Republican Party last year and faces a primary challenge of his own. Delaware also hosts a primary, while Louisiana voters go the polls Saturday.
     • U.S. media outlets face deadline to meet Beijing's demands. China's government has given four American news organizations until July 7 to submit information about their operations in the country. A similar request earlier this year came in connection with Beijing's decision to revoke the press credentials of several reporters at other U.S. titles.
     • Climate & Covid-19. World Resources Institute (WRI) discussion on "Building a Clean and Resilient Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis in Support of Climate Action and the Sustainable Development Goals."
     • WTO chief candidate. Washington International Trade Association (WITA) webinar with Mexico’s Jesus Seade, nominee to be the next director general of the World Trade Organization.

     • Climate disruptions. World Resources Institute (WRI) discussion on "Build Back Better: How to Prepare for the Coming Climate Disruption."

     • China influence efforts. Hudson Institute discussion on "China's Attempt to Influence U.S. Institutions."

     • Climate and energy needs in USDA reports. USDA meeting by teleconference of the National Agricultural Research, Extension, Education, and Economics Advisory Board to deliberate on the report and recommendations of the relevance and adequacy review of the climate and energy needs programs of the USDA Research, Education, and Extension mission area and the Cooperative Extension activities of the land-grant university system.
     • U.S./Kenya trade. U.S. International Trade Commission hearing on "The U.S./Kenya Trade Agreement: Advice on the Probable Economic Effect of Providing Duty-Free Treatment for Currently Dutiable Imports."

     • U.S./China relations. Washington International Trade Association (WITA) webinar.

     • Kremlin crimes. House Foreign Affairs Europe, Eurasia, Energy and the Environment Subcommittee hearing on "Exposing and Demanding Accountability for Kremlin Crimes Abroad."

     • Environmental and economic opportunities. House Natural Resources Committee holds a policy roundtable via webcast on "The Restoration Economy: Examining Environmental and Economic Opportunities," focusing on policies to create new conservation-oriented jobs around the country.

Wednesday, July 8


     • President Trump hosts Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador at the White House. It’s AMLO’s first foreign visit since taking office; through July 9. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may also attend.
     • National response to worsening Covid-19 pandemic. House Homeland Security — Subcommittee on Emergency Preparedness, Response and Recovery hearing.
     • Federal role in research and development. House Budget Committee hearing.
     • FY 2021 appropriations, Transportation, HUD. House Transportation-HUD Appropriations Subcommittee meeting to consider its FY 2021 spending measure.
     • FY 2021 Appropriations, Commerce, Justice. House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee markup of appropriations for FY 2021.
     • Essential workers and Covid-19. Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) holds a webinar on "America in Recovery: Lessons from Essential Employers."

     • U.K. and global trade. Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) holds a webinar on "What Role for the United Kingdom in the Global Trading System?"

     • Drones. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International hold an "Unmanned Aircraft Systems Symposium — Remotely Piloted Edition."

     • States and policy issues. CQ RollCall and Fiscal Note webinar on "The Rise of the States — What it Means for Policy Going Forward," about best practices for navigating state-level issues and the future of state policy and power.

     • Contact tracing. House Financial Services Task Force on Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee hearing on "Exposure Notification and Contact Tracing: How AI Helps Localities Reopen and Researchers Find a Cure."

     • China and 5G. Hudson Institute webcast on "U.K./China Clash," about issues including "repression in Hong Kong, the outbreak of the coronavirus and tensions over surveillance embedded into 5G technologies and infrastructure."

     • FY 2021 Appropriations, financial services. House Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee markup of appropriations for FY 2021.

     • 2020 elections. Election Assistance Commission webcast on "Lessons Learned from the 2020 Primary Election," focusing on state and local election officials during the 2020 elections in preparation for the remaining primaries and general election.

     • Covid-19 and colleges. The Atlantic holds a webcast on "The State of Higher Ed: Roadmap to Reopening."

     • U.S./China relations. United States Institute of Peace (USIP) webcast on "Congressional Perspectives on U.S./China Relations."

     • FY 2021 Appropriations, Defense. House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee markup of appropriations for FY 2021.
     • Covid-19. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies discussion with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on American foreign policy priorities during and after Covid-19.

Thursday, July 9


     • Investing in China, emerging markets. SEC Chairman Jay Clayton will lead a roundtable discussion with commentary from investors, industry and regulators on risks associated with investing in China and other emerging markets.
     • Euro-area finance ministers will vote for the next Eurogroup president.
     • State-Foreign Ops/Agriculture/Milcon-VA FY 2021 appropriations. House Appropriations Committee markup.
     • Covid-19 women/minority owned businesses access to capital. House Financial Services — Subcommittee on Diversity and Inclusion hearing.
     • Consumer risks during Covid-19 pandemic. House Energy and Commerce — Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce hearing.
     • Green summit. International Energy Agency will host a summit to discuss a global green recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and accompanying economic decline.
     • President Donald Trump hosts a roundtable with Hispanic leaders.
     • Energy and cybersecurity. U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States Energy Association (USEA) webinar on "Cybersecurity and Distributed Energy Resources," part of the "Digitalization and Cybersecurity" series.
     • Manufacturing and Covid-19. Brookings Institution webcast on "Preserving Manufacturing in the Covid-19 Economy."
     • Migrant workers and food security. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) webcast on "Covid-19 Through the Migration Lens," focusing on the impact of the coronavirus on migrant workers and food security.
     • Drones. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International hold a "Unmanned Aircraft Systems Symposium - Remotely Piloted Edition.”
     • Digital services taxes. Washington International Trade Association (WITA) webinar on "A Taxing Issues and a Trade Matter - Digital Services Taxes and Trade."
     • Fiscal policy and Covid-19. Urban Institute's Tax Policy Center webcast on "The Prescription: Fiscal Policy for the Covid-19 Economy," focusing on "the historic economic challenges facing the U.S. and the world and how best to meet them."
     • Pandemics and elections. New York University Brademas Center webinar on "Pandemic Propaganda: A New Electoral Crisis," focusing on "how domestic and foreign actors weaponize rumors, conspiracy theories, and disinformation about Covid-19 against American voters."
     • CFTC. Women in Housing & Finance hosting a luncheon with Commodity Futures Trading Commissioner Dawn DeBerry Stump.

Friday, July 10


     • FY 2021 appropriations, Interior, Environment. House Appropriations Committee meeting to consider the FY 2021 Interior-Environment bill.
     • Covid-19 impacts. House Homeland Security Emergency Preparedness, Response and Recovery Subcommittee hearing on "Pandemic Response: Confronting the Unequal Impacts of Covid-19."

     • Trade and medical goods. Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) webcast on "A Trade Bargain to Secure Supplies of Medical Goods."

     • Venezuela and Iran relations. Hudson Institute webcast on the evolving relationship between Venezuela and Iran.

 

 


Economic Reports for the Week


 

Economic focus will continue on whether or not Covid-19-related cases continue to surge and what the impact is on hospitalizations and deaths. It is a light week for Fedspeak, with just San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin participating in a NABE talk on the economy.

 

Monday, July 6


     • Institute for Supply Management releases its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June. Economists forecast a 54.5 reading, a return above the expansionary level of 50 after two months below it, as nearly all of the country has reopened to some degree. Before April’s 41.8 figure, the index had more than 10 consecutive years of monthly readings above 50.
     • Bank of Canada releases its quarterly business outlook survey.

Tuesday, July 7


     • Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) for May. Consensus estimate is for 4.9 million job openings on the last business day of May, down from five million in April. In February, before the economy had suffered from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, the total stood at seven million.
     • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin take part in a virtual discussion on the economy hosted by the National Association for Business Economics. Also, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Randal Quarles delivers remarks via webcast on the Financial Stability Board at an Exchequer Club luncheon.
     • Reserve Bank of Australia announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its cash target rate at a record low 0.25%, since the country is most likely enduring its first recession, as defined by two consecutive quarters of gross-domestic-product contraction, in nearly three decades. The March quarter GDP was negative 0.3%, and the treasurer of Australia, Josh Frydenberg, has said that second-quarter GDP will be worse.

Wednesday, July 8


     • Federal Reserve releases consumer credit data for May. Forecasters expect outstanding consumer credit to decline for a third month in a row, albeit at a much slower rate, to $4.1 trillion. In April, consumer credit declined at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19.6% from March, the fastest rate since 1943. Revolving credit, such as credit cards, plummeted a record 64.9% in April, as U.S. consumers were stuck at home. This also led to an all-time high rate of personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income of 32.2% in April.

Thursday, July 9


     • Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 4. A total of 48.7 million Americans has filed for unemployment benefits since the U.S. began to shut down.
     • Fed Balance Sheet
     • Money Supply

Friday, July 10


     • Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Producer Price Index for June. Consensus estimate is for a 0.4% monthly gain, which would match May’s rise. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to tick up 0.1%, after edging down 0.1% in May.

 


Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events


 

USDA on Friday releases its monthly supply/demand reports. With last week's Acreage report surprising most, demand and weather/crop developments will now be the focus.

 

Monday, July 6
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC Commitments of Traders report; delayed release from Friday due to U.S. federal holiday
  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
  • Latest U.S. Agricultural Trade Data
  • U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • French Agriculture Ministry crop report
  • Holiday: Thailand
     

Tuesday, July 7

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • U.S. Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
     

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • EIA monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
     

Wednesday, July 8

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Brazil’s crop agency Conab releases data on area, output and yield of corn, soybeans
  • China’s CNGOIC monthly report on supply and demand of soy and corn
  • FranceAgriMer crop report
     

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
     

Thursday, July 9

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Brazil’s Unica may release cane crush, sugar production
  • Holiday: Argentina
     

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
     

Friday, July 10

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • Crop Production
  • WASDE
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Market and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • Season Average Price Forecasts
  • Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
  • China farm ministry’s CASDE monthly crop supply-demand report
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s data on reserves, exports and production in June
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s palm oil export data for July 1-10
  • Holiday: Singapore (election day), Argentina
     

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • IEA Oil Market Report; OPEC production estimates for June

 

 

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