Senate In, House Out as Discussions Continue on New Covid Aid Package

Posted on 09/08/2020 5:22 AM

USDA on Friday updates supply and demand estimates

 


Washington Focus


 

Senators return Tuesday to Washington after their summer recess, with all eyes on a new coronavirus relief package. The House is on recess through Sept. 14 (pro forma session only).

 

The next Covid relief package. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Fox News Sunday that he and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) agreed that Congress would pass a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government running after Sept. 30, when fiscal 2020 ends fiscal year 2021 begins.

 

     The CR, Mnuchin said, is expected to keep the government funded into early December (Democratic aides said Sunday no decision on its duration has been made), and would be handled separately from negotiations over a new coronavirus bill. However, other congressional sources say there is still a chance that a new Covid aid package could hitch a ride on a CR, either the coming one or perhaps another one later.

 

     “The president and I believe we should do more stimulus,” Mnuchin said. “We have about 7 and a half million jobs we need to get back until we’re back to where we were and we want to help small businesses, we want to help businesses that are particularly impacted by this and we’ll continue to work on proposed new legislation.”

 

     Pelosi, Mnuchin said, “has refused to sit down and negotiate unless we agree to something like a $2.5 trillion-dollar deal in advance. As you know, we put $3 trillion into the economy when the economy was completely shut down. We’ve now reopened the economy. Let’s do a more targeted bill,” he said.

 

     Asked if the White House hoped to move forward with a so-called skinny stimulus bill in the week ahead. “I’d like to call it a more targeted bill, but, yes, our expectation is we will move forward with that,” Mnuchin said.

 

     Perspective: A bigger-than-expected drop in the U.S. jobless rate has tempered the appetite among some Republicans and the White House for a compromise on new coronavirus relief. After the release of the employment data on Friday, Larry Kudlow, President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, told Bloomberg TV that the U.S. could “absolutely live with” no deal on new stimulus. “Right now the economy is on a self-sustaining recovery path in my judgment and will continue along those lines, and will continue to surprise on the upside,” he said. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told a virtual Texas business panel: “I am skeptical about anything being passed between now and November.”

 

USDA will announce details of CFAP 2 prior this week ahead of Friday's deadline for CFAP 1 enrollment.

 

President Trump's schedule:

 

     Tuesday: Trump will deliver remarks on the environment in Jupiter, Florida. Later he will give a speech in Winston Salem, North Carolina.

     Thursday: Trump will deliver remarks in Freeland, Michigan.

     Friday: Trump and Biden will mark the 19th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks with visits to a memorial in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Vice President Mike Pence is in New York. Later Trump awards the Medal of Honor to Sgt. Maj. Thomas "Patrick" Payne, a Ranger assigned to the U.S. Army's Special Operations Command, who helped rescue about 70 hostages set to be executed by Islamic State militants in Iraq in 2015.

 


Hearings and Events This Week


 

Covid-19-related hearings and meetings dominate the topic of hearing and meetings this week.

 

Monday, Sept. 7


     • Holiday.

Tuesday, Sept. 8


     • Investing in ag. Farm Foundation online forum, “Investing in Agriculture — What Does the Future Hold?”
     • President Donald Trump travels to Florida, North Carolina.
     • European food production. Open Society Foundations-Washington, D.C. webinar on "Old Roots, New Shoots? Making Europe's Food Production System More Environmentally and Socially Sustainable."
     • Export-Import Bank teleconference of the Board of Directors.
     • China issues. Atlantic Council webinar with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on his recent trip to Central and Eastern Europe and "how European nations are awakening to the China challenge."
     • China and central Asia. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webcast on "China in Central Asia: Covid-19 and Beyond."
     • 2020 elections and the Mid East. Middle East Institute webinar on "Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy in the Middle East."
     • Fauci remarks. Research! America 2020 Virtual National Health Research Forum, including remarks from Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
     • Covid-19 vaccine. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) online discussion on the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs, including "what might happen when a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available and what potential problems a vaccine could cause around the world."
     • U.S. Army and Covid-19. Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute online discussion on "The Future of the U.S. Army: Forward Presence, Modernization, and Covid-19" with Secretary of the Army Ryan D. McCarthy.
     • USMCA. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) virtual Trade Week forum, with Acting CBP Commissioner Mark Morgan delivering keynote remarks — Session on "U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA).”
     • Biodefense and Covid-19. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on "Technology's Role Strengthening Biodefense and Accelerating Economic Recovery After Covid-19."
     • OECD report. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Washington Center webinar on "Education at a Glance 2020," a compilation of statistics analyzing the 37 OECD member countries and others on education issues.

Wednesday, Sept. 9


     • U.S./China issues. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission virtual hearing on "U.S./China Relations in 2020: Enduring Problems and Emerging Challenges."
     • Covid-19 and vaccines. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on "Vaccines: Saving Lives, Ensuring Confidence, and Protecting Public Health."
     • U.S. and Japan. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on "The U.S./Japan Alliance at 60."
     • U.S. Fed and emergency lending. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on "The Status of the Federal Reserve Emergency Lending Facilities."
     • Covid-19 and trade. Washington International Trade Association webinar on "American leadership on trade in the wake of Covid-19, how we can maintain an open and fair global trading system, and the role of the World Trade Organization."
     • Middle East. Brookings Institution webinar on "U.S. Policy in the Middle East."
     • Covid-19 and railroads. House Transportation and Infrastructure Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee hearing on "Amtrak's Response to Covid-19."
     • FDA’s Hahn. Research! America 2020 Virtual National Health Research Forum with remarks from FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn on "Science on the Front Lines."
     • Covid-19 and research. House Science, Space and Technology Research and Technology Subcommittee hearing on "The Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on University Research."
     • Covid-19. Health and Human Services Department meeting by teleconference of the Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria, with a focus on Covid-19.
     • Small business lending. House Small Business Committee hearing on "Transparency in Small Business Lending."
     • Covid-19 and elections. House Oversight and Reform Coronavirus Crisis Subcommittee hearing on "Ensuring a Free, Fair, and Safe Election During the Coronavirus Pandemic."
     • Homeland Security. Atlantic Council webinar on "Countering New Threats to the Homeland: The Future of the Department of Homeland Security."
     • U.S. and North Korea. United States Institute of Peace webinar on "A New Direction for U.S. Policy on North Korea."
     • China direction. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments webinar on a new report, "Which Way the Dragon? Sharpening Allied Perceptions of China's Strategic Trajectory."
     • Trade issues. Washington International Trade Association and the International Trade Club of Chicago hold a webinar on "Trade is Not a Four Letter Word: Fred Hochberg on Global Trade Policy in the Age of Tariffs and Sanctions."
     • Renewable energy. American Council on Renewable Energy and IJ Global webinar on "REFF-Wall Street 2020" on renewable energy and storage capital flows, including remarks from FERC Chairman Neil Chatterjee.

Thursday, Sept. 10


     • Main street economy. House Small Business Rural Development, Agriculture, Trade, and Entrepreneurship Subcommittee hearing on "Kick Starting Entrepreneurship and Main Street Economic Recovery."
     • Future of the WTO. Washington International Trade Association webinar on "The Future of the World Trade Organization (WTO)."
     • EPA and agriculture. Environmental Protection Agency meeting by teleconference of the Farm, Ranch, and Rural Communities Advisory Committee on environmental issues impacting agriculture; state, local, and tribal government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations.
     • U.S./China report. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission meeting to review and edit drafts of the 2020 Annual Report to Congress.
     • Farm Credit Administration. Farm Credit Administration meeting by teleconference including the Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and FCS Condition and Performance.
     • Investment council. Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration meeting by webcast of the U.s. Investment Advisory Council.
     • Cybersecurity and utilities. United States Energy Association webinar on "Forging a Cybersecurity Defense for Utilities."
     • NATO issues. Washington Post Live webinar with U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison, on "the emerging challenges facing NATO."
     • U.S. Census. House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing on "Providing the Census Bureau with the Time to Produce a Complete and Accurate Census."
     • Covid-19 and aid to states. House Financial Services Committee hearing on "The Need for Financial Aid to America's States and Territories During the Pandemic: Supporting First Responders, Assisting Schools in Their Efforts to Safely Educate, and Preventing Mass Layoffs."
     • Cannabis. National Cannabis Festival virtual third annual National Cannabis Policy Summit.
     • Grain car issues. Surface Transportation Board meeting by teleconference of the National Grain Car Council to discuss issues affecting rail grain car availability and transportation.
     • Chinese drones. Heritage Foundation webinar on "The Enemy Within: The Security Risks of U.S. Law Enforcement's Use of Chinese Drones."
     • Elections and markets. CQ Roll Call and Fiscal Note webinar on "Projected Outcomes of the 2020 Elections and Impacts on the Market."
     • Climate and the economy. Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) webinar on "Natural Climate Solutions for Economic Recovery."

Friday, Sept. 11


     • CFAP 1 deadline for farmers to apply for the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP).
     • COVID-19 vaccines. Center for Global Development (CGD) online discussion on "Understanding and Improving Covid-19 Vaccine Portfolio."
     • Covid-19 and tax policy. House Ways and Means Select Revenue Measures Subcommittee hearing on "Consequences of Inaction on Covid Tax Legislation."
     • Saudi Arabia. House Select Intelligence Committee hearing on "Assessing the U.S./Saudi Security and Intelligence Relationship."
     • Energy research. House Science, Space and Technology Energy Subcommittee hearing on "Biological research at the Department of Energy: Leveraging DOE's unique capabilities to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic."

 


Economic Reports for the Week


 

Economic reports of note during include the JOLTS survey on Sept. 9 and another jobless claims update on Sept. 10, as well as the federal budget update and inflation data pouring in on Sept. 11.

 

Monday, Sept. 7


• Holiday. U.S.markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.

Tuesday, Sept. 8


     • National Federation of Independent Business reports its Small Business Optimism Index for August. The consensus estimate is for a 98.9 reading, even with the July figure.
     • Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. In June consumer debt rose by $9 billion after three months of shrinking, as Americans closed their wallets and stayed at home. It was the first time that consumer debt fell in three consecutive months since 2010, in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Wednesday, Sept. 9


     • Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July. Economists forecast six million job openings on the last business day of July, up from June’s 5.9 million.
     • MBA Mortgage Applications
     • Bank of Canada announces its monetary-policy decision. Since cutting its key short-term interest rate three times in March, from 1.75% to a record-low 0.25%, the central bank has stood pat. It is expected to keep rates at this level through at least the end of 2021 to help stabilize the economy, which shrank at an annualized rate of 38.7% in the second quarter.

Thursday, Sept. 10


     • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Producer Price Index for August. The PPI and core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, are both expected to gain 0.2% month over month. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, in July.
     • Jobless Claims
     • Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
     • Fed Balance Sheet
     • Money Supply
     • European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is likely to leave its benchmark deposit-facility rate unchanged at a record-low negative 0.5%.

Friday, Sept. 11


     • BLS releases the Consumer Price Index for August. Consensus estimate is for 1.2% year-over-year rise, ahead of July’s 1% gain. The core CPI is seen gaining 1.5%, nearly even with the July data.
     • Treasury Statement

 


Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events


 

USDA's supply and demand updates on Friday is the focus this week, with a close look on the impact of the August 10 derecho on yields and acreage, and a needed boost to USDA's current forecast for China's corn imports.

 

 

Monday, Sept. 7
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • China trade data on soybean and meat imports
  • International Grains Council secretariat briefing on trade
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Holiday: U.S., Brazil, Canada, Thailand

Tuesday, Sept. 8

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Council webinar on Middle East, North Africa palm trade
  • Abares Australian crop report

Wednesday, Sept. 9

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Food Security in the United States
  • Brazil Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Thursday, Sept. 10

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s end-Aug. palm oil stockpiles, production, export data
  • Malaysia palm oil export data for Sept. 1-10
  • Conab’s data on production, area and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories

Friday, Sept. 11

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Cotton Ginnings
  • Crop Production
  • WASDE
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Market and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • Season Average Price Forecasts
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
  • China agriculture ministry’s (CASDE) monthly report on supply and demand

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

 

 

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