Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour Takes Center Stage This Week

Posted on 08/19/2019 5:33 AM

FOMC minutes Wed., Jackson Hole confab Aug. 22-24; Fed chairman speaks Friday

Lawmakers are on their summer recess until Sept. 9.
     The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour is the major ag-related event this week, with a key USDA NASS official at daily meetings to answer questions about USDA's latest crop estimates. “
     On the economic front, the Federal Reserve is in focus, with Wednesday's minutes of a prior FOMC meeting and the beginning Thursday of the Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, with Chairman Jerome Powell speaking Friday.


The primary ag focus this week will be on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

Lance Honig, Crops Branch chief for USDA’s NASS, will be at the nightly meetings in Nebraska City (Aug. 20), Iowa City (Aug. 21) and the finale in Rochester (Aug. 22) to answer questions about USDA’s latest crop estimates.

Where to get up-to-date information from the Tour There will be exclusive daily route reports from Tour leaders on www.profarmer.com/crop-tour. You can also access daily Tour results each evening and compare this year’s Tour data to last year and the three-year average.

Daily commentary. Brian Grete and Eastern Tour Consultant Mark Bernard, and Jeff Wilson and Western Tour Consultant Emily Carolan, will provide daily commentary in “From the Rows” on www.profarmer.com. Also, tune in to AgriTalk each day at 10:06 a.m. and 2:06 p.m. CT on www.agweb.com/agritalk or the AgriTalk app, or your favorite farm radio station to hear a Crop Tour update from Chip Flory and Davis Michaelsen.

Tweets. Search #PFTour19 on Twitter to get Tour-related tweets and follow @BGrete, @JWilson29, @ChipFlory, @emily_floryag14 and @MNWeedWizard for tweets from the field each day. Follow @MeghanVick for daily Tour results. You can also find daily reports on Reuters, Bloomberg and Dow Jones newswires.

House and Senate lawmakers are on recess until Sept. 9, but as usual, that has not stopped some of them from tweeting and making statements.

The Federal Reserve is also in this week's spotlight. FOMC minutes are out Wednesday and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins Thursday. Traders are now pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting and 31% odds for a 50-point cut (unlikely, say most analysts). Fed Chairman Jerome “Jay” Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole confab Friday, with the overall sessions' them being "Challenges for Monetary Policy."

Economic updates for the week include:

Monday:
— Institute for Supply Management releases its Non-manufacturing Index for July. Economists forecast a 55.5 reading, up from June’s 55.1.

Tuesday:
— Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June. Consensus estimates are for 7.3 million job openings on the last business day of June, roughly even with May’s data.
— Reserve Bank of Australia announces its monetary-policy decision. The market expects the central bank to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 1%.
— Statistics Canada is expected to report factory sales dropped by 1.8% in June, after posting a rise of 1.6% in May.

Wednesday:
— Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for June. Expectations are for an increase of $17 billion in total outstanding consumer credit at the end of June. If estimates are met, consumer debt would surpass $4.1 trillion, an all-time high.
— MBA Mortgage Applications
— National Association of Realtors is expected to show existing home sales for July have risen 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.4 million units, from 5.27 million units in June.
— FOMC Minutes: Will provide details on the discussions leading to the first interest-rate cut in a decade.
— Three-day summit of Group of Seven leaders is set to begin in the French coastal resort of Biarritz on Wednesday.
— Statistics Canada is likely to report the country's annual inflation to have risen 1.7% in July, after posting an increase of 2.0% in June.

Thursday:
— Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Aug. 3. The four-week average of jobless claims is 212,000.
— IHS Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to show a reading of 50.5 in August, after reporting a reading of 50.4 for the previous month.
— IHS Markit U.S. services PMI is expected to show a reading of 52.9 in August, following a reading of 53 in July.
— Leading Indicators
— Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
— Fed Balance Sheet
— Money Supply

Friday:
— BLS releases the July Producer Price Index. Economists forecast a 1.6% year-over-year rise, down from June’s 1.7%. The core PPI is expected to hit 2.3%, even with June’s data.
— Commerce Department is expected to report new homes sales rose to 0.647 million units in July, from 0.646 million units in the month before.
— Statscan is likely to report retail sales dropped 0.2% in June, after posting a fall of 0.1% in the month before.

Fed speakers on tap:

Monday:
— Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren discusses the economy in an exclusive Bloomberg interview.

Tuesday:
— Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles speaks on community development at the 10-year Celebration for the Utah Center for Neighborhood Stabilization event in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Thursday:
— Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: The theme of this year's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is "Challenges for Monetary Policy." This is the first day of the three-day annual event where participants traditionally (since 1978) include prominent central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world. Participants convene to discuss the economic issues, implications, and policy options pertaining to the symposium topic.

Friday:
— Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Challenges for Monetary Policy event in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Key USDA and international agriculture and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, Aug. 19

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • County Estimates: Hogs
  • Milk Production
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Council online seminar, Kuala Lumpur
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Energy reports and events:

  • Japan finance ministry fuel import data (July)

Tuesday, Aug. 20

Ag reports and events:

  • Mushrooms
  • AmSpec, Intertek and SGS release Malaysia’s Aug. 1-20 palm oil exports data

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • WTI September futures contract expires

Wednesday, Aug. 21

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Brazil’s chicken exporter group ABPA releases estimates for chicken and pork exports in 2019

Energy reports and events:

  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Thursday, Aug. 22

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Cold Storage
  • Livestock Slaughter
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
  • Brazilian crop agency Conab’s report on sugarcane crop
  • Asia Palm Oil Conference, Day 1

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data
  • Russia refining maintenance schedule

Friday, Aug. 23

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • Rice Stocks
  • Cattle on Feed
  • Chickens and Eggs
  • Poultry Slaughter
  • Asia Palm Oil Conference, Day 2

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, Aug. 19

  • Congress. House and Senate return September 9.
  • President Trump’s response is due in legal case related to his attempt to block New York from handing his tax records to congressional Democrats.
  • Russia. Federal Register notice due on second round of U.S. sanctions on Russia for using a nerve agent in an assassination attempt last year.
  • Huawei temporary general license expires for certain U.S. broadband companies and wireless customers using Chinese technology giant’s equipment.
  • Deadline for Mexican tomato producers to settle a dumping dispute with the U.S. Commerce Dept has collected preliminary duties of more than 17% on Mexican tomatoes since May, when it resumed a suspended dumping probe at the request of Florida growers
  • Native seeds. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources holds a meeting on "An Assessment of Native Seed Needs and Capacities," Aug. 18-19.
  • Sen. Gillibrand. Washington Post Live holds a discussion with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), a 2020 presidential candidate, on gun control, climate change and her strategy "to break through the crowded field," as part of the 2020 Candidates series.

Tuesday, Aug. 20

  • President Trump hosts Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis at the White House to discuss trade and energy policies.
  • FDIC will consider changes to Volcker Rule limits on banks’ ability to trade with their own funds, a move that would ease post-crisis safeguards reviled by the industry.
  • Foreign aid. White House may ask Congress to stop the State Dept from distributing several billion dollars in unspent foreign aid by the end of the fiscal year. Move to cap spending is the latest development in a multi-year battle by Trump’s White House to cut foreign assistance funding.
  • Earthquake hazards. National Institute of Standards and Technology meeting of the Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction to finalize their 2019 biennial Report on the Effectiveness of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, August 20-21.
  • Materials processing. Bureau of Industry and Security meeting of the Materials Processing Equipment Technical Advisory Committee on technical questions that affect the level of export controls applicable to materials processing equipment and related technology.
  • China steel trade review. International Trade Commission meeting to vote on steel racks from China.
  • Immigration. Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) discussion on "Minimizing the National Security Risks of U.S. Foreign Student and Exchange Visitor Policies."

Wednesday, Aug. 21

  • Congressional Budget Office updates its latest 10-year budget and economic forecasts.
  • Three-day summit of Group of Seven leaders is set to begin in the French coastal resort of Biarritz.
  • Broadband connectivity. National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) meeting by webinar of the BroadbandUSA program to bring together government, industry and non-profit personnel working to expand broadband connectivity and improve digital inclusion and workforce skills.
  • Iran issues. Hudson Institute discussion on "Trump's Maximum Pressure Campaign: Rally Allies and Rattle Iran."

Thursday, Aug. 22

  • Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, through Saturday.
  • Wind tour trade review. International Trade Commission meeting to vote on utility scale wind towers from Canada, Indonesia, Korea, and Vietnam, and is scheduled to complete and file its determinations on Aug. 23, 2019.
  • Cotton & China. Citizen Power Initiatives for China (CPIFC) news conference to release a new report on "Cotton: The Fabric Full of Lies," focusing on forced and prison labor in Xinjiang, China and the nexus to global supply chains.

Friday, Aug. 23

  • President Trump heads to G7 in Biarritz, France.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Economic Syposium.
  • ICE Acting Director Matthew Albence asked by House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) to provide information related to the planning and coordination of recent immigration raids in Mississippi.
  • Federal appeals court in New York will hear arguments in Trump’s challenge to a subpoena by House Democrats seeking records from Deutsche Bank and Capital One Financial.
  • U.S.-South Korea military drills scheduled to end.

 

Add new comment