Negotiations Continue on Next Coronavirus Aid Package

Posted on 08/03/2020 3:20 AM

Biden's VP? | Employment report | Kansas primary

 

 


Washington Focus


 

Continued negotiations on the next Covid-19 aid package, an update on China's import numbers and Friday's U.S. Employment report are the key topics this week.

 

The Senate is in session. The House is operating remotely. The House canceled its traditional August recess until a coronavirus relief bill is passed. The Senate is scheduled to break for August recess on Thursday, though the senators may remain in Washington pending a stimulus deal.

 

     Procedural vote on DOE nominee set. A vote to invoke cloture on the nomination of Mark Menezes to be Deputy Energy Secretary has been set for Monday evening as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) filed cloture on the nomination last Thursday. Menezes is currently undersecretary of Energy.

 

On the political front, Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, said he will make his decision this week, though an announcement might not come until the week of Aug. 10.

 

President Donald Trump’s schedule:

 

     • Monday: Trump will sign an executive order on Hiring American. He will also have lunch with Vice President Mike Pence.
     • Tuesday: Trump will participate in a signing ceremony for "The Great American Outdoors Act." He will also have lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

 


Hearings and Events This Week


 

What is happening behind closed doors relative to the next aid package is more important than what happens in the open on Capitol Hill this week. Check Policy Updates for the latest on this topic.

 

Monday, Aug. 3


     • New Covid-19 aid package. Congressional leaders are scheduled to meet with administration officials.
     • USTR, tax court nominee votes. Senate Finance Committee vote on the nominations of Michael Nemelka to be deputy U.S. Trade Representative for investment, services, labor, environment, Africa, China and the Western Hemisphere; Christian Weiler to be a judge of the U.S. Tax Court; and Alina Marshall to be a judge of the U.S. Tax Court.

     • Covid-19 response. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) webinar on "the latest in Congress's response to the Covid-19 pandemic."

     • UN role in Venezuela. Center for Strategic and International Studies' (CSIS) Future of Venezuela Initiative webcast on "Understanding the Role of the United Nations in Venezuela."

     • Airline industry. Washington Post Live online discussion with Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian on "The Path Forward: The Airline Industry."

     • Essential medical supplies. Center for Security Policy (CSP) virtual discussion on "Ending America's Dependency on China for Essential Medical Supplies."

     • Infrastructure security. Woodrow Wilson Center webcast on "What's Critical? Evolving the Security Playbook for Managing Ones, Zeroes, and Everything in Between," focusing on protecting America's critical infrastructure.
     • Federal Reserve presidents speaking on the economy: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

Tuesday, Aug. 4


     • Politics. Kansas primary elections.
     • SEC and small businesses. Securities and Exchange Commission teleconference of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee on matters relating to how the capital markets are serving underrepresented founders and rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors.

     • Extreme heat. The Atlantic Council webinar on "Code Red," focusing on the global consequences of extreme heat.

     • Venezuela. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on "Venezuela in Maduro's Grasp: Assessing the Deteriorating Security and Humanitarian Situation." Testimony from Elliot Abrams, State Department special representative for Venezuela.

     • Supreme Court term limits. Center for American Progress (CAP) webinar on "The Importance of Term Limits for the Supreme Court."

     • China influence in Europe. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion on a report titled "Uncovering China's Influence in Europe: How Friendship Groups Co-opt European Elites."

• Global conservation. Woodrow Wilson Center's Latin American Program webcast on "Economic Growth and Environmental Protection: Latin America's Role in Global Conservation Efforts."

     • 5G. Open Radio Access Network (RAN) Institute virtual discussion on "Open RAN 101: Promoting a Diverse and Competitive Market for 5G and Advanced Wireless Technologies."

     • Covid-19 and children. Alliance for Health Policy webinar on "The Immediate and Lasting Impacts of Covid-19 on Children."

     • 2020 elections. House Homeland Security Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Innovation Subcommittee hearing on "Secure, Safe, and Auditable: Protecting the Integrity of the 2020 Elections."

     • Melania Trump. National Press Club Newsmaker Program book discussion via webinar on "The Art of Her Deal: The Untold Story of Melania Trump."

     • Protests. Senate Judiciary Constitution Subcommittee hearing on "The Right of the People Peaceably to Assemble: Protecting Speech by Stopping Anarchist Violence."

     • Big tech. Brookings Institution webcast on "Breaking up Big Tech: Should Congress Do It?"

Wednesday, Aug. 5


     • Trucking safety. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration summit meeting by teleconference on "The FMCSA 2020 Trucking Safety Summit," on improving the safe operation of property-carrying commercial motor vehicles on our Nation's roadways.

     • China situation. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on "The New China Rules."

     • European financial system. Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar on "Europe's Financial System Structures Transformed by EU Policies, Brexit, and Covid-19."

     • UN, other nominees. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the nominations of Jennifer Yue Barber to be the representative of the U.S. on the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations; Keith Dayton to be ambassador to Ukraine; Julie Fisher to be ambassador to Belarus; Alex Wong to be an alternate representative to the sessions of the General Assembly of the United Nations and representative for special political affairs in the United Nations.

     • NAS. National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS) virtual workshop, including remarks from Robert Temple, deputy director of the FDA's Center for Clinical Science.

     • Crossfire Hurricane investigation. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on "Oversight of the Crossfire Hurricane Investigation: Day 2."

     • FTC oversight. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on "Oversight of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)."

     • Energy sector cybersecurity. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on "Efforts to Improve Cybersecurity for the Energy Sector."

     • Nuclear infrastructure. Senate Environment and Public Works hearing on the "American Nuclear Infrastructure Act of 2020."

     • African perspectives on WTO. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on "African perspectives on the WTO (World Trade Organization) and prospects for regional trade cooperation."

     • Covid-19 and cannabis. American Bar Association virtual discussion on "Covid-19 Impact on Cannabis: Industry Insights and Expectations."

     • Public protests. American Bar Association virtual discussion on "The Future of Public Protest: Regulating Mass Demonstrations, Marches and Parades."

     • Supreme Court. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on "The Supreme Court in 2020."

     • U.S./China clashes. Hoover Institution webcast on "From Huawei to Hong Kong: How the U.S. and China are Clashing Around the World."

     • SEC nominations. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee markup to vote on the nominations of Hester Peirce to be a member of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Caroline Crenshaw to be a member of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

     • Conservation and sustainability. Washington Post Live webcast on "Conservation and Sustainability," examining "what is being done to address human impact on the natural environment and the disproportionate burden placed on vulnerable populations worldwide."

     • Immigration and pandemics. Woodrow Wilson Center's Canada Institute webcast on "Pandemic Immigration Consternation for the United States and Canada."

Thursday, Aug. 6


     • WTO candidate. Washington International Trade Association webinar with former Kenyan Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Trade Amina Mohamed, a candidate for director general of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

     • Agriculture systems. U.A. Agency for International Development's (USAID) Marketlinks virtual discussion on "Youth, Women and Market Systems Development in Agriculture and Supporting Markets."

     • DHS and protests. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on "Oversight of DHS Personnel Deployments to Recent Protests."

     • Fauci briefing. Alliance for Health Policy media briefing via webinar with National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease Director Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force.

     • Nominations hearing. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on the nominations of Eric Soskin to be inspector general of the Transportation Department; Robert Primus to be a member of the Surface Transportation Board; Sarah Feinberg to be a director of the Amtrak Board of Directors; and Chris Koos to be a director of the Amtrak Board of Directors.

     • Covid-19 and fiscal policy. Urban Institute webinar on "The Prescription: Fiscal Policy for the Covid-19 Economy."

     • Covid-19 funds oversight. Brookings Institution webcast on "Addressing Another Covid-19 Crisis: Corruption," focusing on congressional oversight of Covid-19 relief funds.

     • Global debt. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on "World Awash in Debt," as part of the "Economy Disrupted" series.

     • School re-openings. House Oversight and Reform Coronavirus Crisis Subcommittee hearing on "Challenges to Safely Reopening K-12 Schools."
     • Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan discusses the U.S. economy.

Friday, Aug. 7


     • Dairy outlook. Farm Credit East hosts webinar on 2020 Midyear Dairy Outlook
     • Hydrogen fuel cell technology. The Atlantic Council virtual discussion on "Energy Source Innovation Stream: Hydrogen fuel cell technology and infrastructure in the commercial transportation industry."

 


Economic Reports for the Week


 

The week ahead will include updates on construction spending, factory orders and trade before the big July jobs report at the end of the week.

 

Monday, Aug. 3


     • Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July. Consensus estimate is for a 53.6 reading, up from June’s 52.5. The June data reversed three months when the index was below the expansionary level of 50.
     • PMI Manufacturing Index, July. Consensus: 51.3, range of 50.7 to 51.3. Last period: 49.8.
     • Census Bureau reports residential construction spending data for June. Expectations are for a 1.3% rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.37 trillion.
     • Federal Reserve presidents speaking on the economy: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
     • China’s Caixin manufacturing index, a private gauge of factory activity tilted toward small and private companies, is expected to show another month of expansion in July. An official gauge last week beat expectations, signaling the country’s economic recovery remained on track.
     • Japan releases a second revision for January-to-March gross domestic product. Earlier data showed the economy contracted at an annualized 2.2% pace. Economists expect downward revisions, reflecting weaker-than-expected capital expenditures.

Tuesday, Aug. 4


     • Motor vehicle sales. Consensus: 14.0 million, range of 13.5 – 14.5 million. Last Period: 13.1 million.
     • Factory Orders, June. Consensus: +5.2%, range of +3.3% to +7.7%. Last period: +8.0%

Wednesday, Aug. 5


     • MBA Mortgage Applications
     • ADP releases its National Employment report for July. Economists forecast that the economy added 2.1 million private-sector jobs, building on June’s gain of 2.37 million.
     • ISM releases its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for July. Consensus estimate is for a 55.8 reading, edging down from June’s 57.1.
     • International Trade, June. Consensus: -$50.3 billion, range of -$53.7 billion to -$49.0 billion. Last period: -$54.6 billion.
     • PMI Services index, July. Consensus: 49.6 , range of 49.0 to 49.6. Last period: 47.9.

Thursday, Aug. 6


     • Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Aug. 1. Claims remain above the one million mark, which would have been a record high before this year. In the last two weeks of July, jobless claims rose from the preceding week for the first time since peaking at 6.9 million in late March, as parts of the country shuttered again due to rising Covid-19 cases.
     • Fed Balance Sheet
     • Money Supply
     * Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan discusses the U.S. economy.
     • Bank of England announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate at a record low 0.1%.

Friday, Aug. 7


     • Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for July. Economists forecast a gain of two million nonfarm jobs, adding to June’s 4.8 million jump. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.5% from 11.1%. The unemployment rate hit a record high 14.7% in April.
     • Wholesale Trade, June. Consensus: -2.0%, range of -2.0% to -2.5%. Last period: -1.2%.
     • Federal Reserve releases consumer credit data for June. Outstanding consumer credit has fallen for three consecutive months as the pandemic has cut into consumer spending.
     • China’s customs bureau releases trade data for July. Import and export figures will be closely watched as a gauge of Chinese demand for foreign goods and the rest of the world’s demand for Chinese products.
     • Japan’s household spending for June is expected to have declined 8%, according to a survey by data provider Quick, compared with a decrease of 16.2% in May. Shops and restaurants slowly reopened after Japan lifted a nationwide state of emergency in late May.

 


Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events


 

U.S. ag sector focus will be on (1) weather, (2) export inspections, (3) any daily export sales to China or others, and (4) debate over potential above-trend yields for both U.S. corn and soybeans.

 

     On the international front, the International Cotton Advisory Committee will update its global outlook on Monday, when Brazil’s agri-business association ABAG will hold an annual conference. The week also brings the United Nations’ FAO monthly food price index and China’s import numbers for soybeans and meat. The French Agriculture ministry’s 2020 grain estimates will be announced Wednesday.

 

Monday, Aug. 3

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • Cotton System
  • Fats & Oils
  • Flour Milling
  • Grain Crushings
  • Honey Bee Colonies
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • International Cotton Advisory Committee updates global outlook
  • ABAG, Brazil’s agri-business association, hosts annual conference
  • Malaysia palm oil export data for July 1-31
  • Holiday: Canada markets closed for Civic Holiday

Tuesday, Aug. 4

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Dairy Products
  • U.S. Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
  • Australia commodity index

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, Aug. 5

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Latest U.S. Agricultural Trade Data
  • China’s CNGOIC to release supply-demand reports on corn, soybeans
  • French Agriculture ministry’s 2020 grain estimates
  • Malaysia’s palm oil export data for Aug. 1-5

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories

Thursday, Aug. 6

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
  • U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update
  • Cash Rents, State
  • Land Values
  • FAO World Food Price Index
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change

Friday, Aug. 7

 

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • China’s foreign trade data for July, including imports of soybeans and meat
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

 

 

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