House Out, Senate In | USDA WASDE on Friday

Posted on 11/04/2019 4:36 AM

Lingering issues: Spending, Immigration, USMCA, Nominations

The House is out again this week while the Senate is in session beginning Tuesday. The pending issues are the same as they have been all calendar year: spending bills (another stopgap spending measure is likely, with low odds for a gov't shutdown); immigration reform (going nowhere); Senate judicial nominations and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (possible vote by the end of the year).
     It's Election Day on Tuesday, with most of the focus on gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi.
     Senate Ag Committee on Thursday holds a hearing on implementation of the 2018 Farm Bill, focusing on rural development and energy programs.
     USDA on Friday releases its updated WASDE report, as market bulls continue to think USDA is overestimating the U.S. corn crop. Demand forecasts will also be important, as U.S. corn exports are not as robust as earlier thought.

 

Economic updates for the week include:

Monday:
— Factory Orders for September are likely to have fallen 0.5%, after a 0.1% dip in August.

Tuesday:
— Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September. Expectations are for 7.05 million job openings on the last business day of September, little changed from August.
— International Trade: Trade deficit data is expected to decrease to $52.5 billion from $54.9 billion in August.
— PMI Services Index
— Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing PMI for October is expected to show a reading of 53.4.
— Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS

Wednesday:
— BLS reports productivity and costs data for the third quarter. Economists forecast a 2.3% rise in unit labor costs, after jumping 2.6% in the second quarter. Nonfarm productivity is seen ticking up 0.8% after gaining 2.3% in the June quarter.
— MBA Mortgage Applications
— Bank of Japan releases minutes from its monetary policy meeting in mid-September.

Thursday:
— Initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 2 are likely to have decreased to 215,000 from 218,000 in the previous week.
— Consumer Credit
— Fed Balance Sheet
— Money Supply
— Bank of England announces its monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.75%.

Friday:
— University of Michigan releases its November Consumer Sentiment Survey. Consensus estimates are for a 96.3 reading, up from October’s 95.5.
— Wholesale Trade

Fed speakers on tap:

Monday:
— San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks in a fireside chat at NYU's Stern Center for Global Economy and Business in New York, N.Y.

Tuesday:
— Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan speaks at the Real Estate Council Speaker Series in Dallas, Texas.
— Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari speaks at the Thrivent Financial Business Development Conference in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Wednesday:
— Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speaks at the Council on Foreign Relation's C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics.
— New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks in a moderated discussion on the future of the workforce at a Wall Street Journal event in New York, N.Y.
— Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks about "Rethinking Workforce Investments" at Drexel University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
— New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcoming remarks at the New York Fed —GARP Global Risk Forum in New York, N.Y.

Thursday:
— Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan speaks at the Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce Year Ahead Summit in Dallas, Texas.
— Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks about monetary policy to the Money Marketeers in New York, N.Y.


Friday:
Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivers closing remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Conference--The Economics of Climate Change, San Francisco, California.

Key USDA & international ag and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, Nov. 4

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Holiday: Japan
  • Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) meeting, Bangkok, Nov. 4-6

Tuesday, Nov. 5

Ag reports and events:

  • Latest U.S. Agricultural Trade Data
  • Dairy Products
  • U.S. Purdue Agriculture Sentiment

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • OPEC publishes World Oil Outlook 2019

Wednesday, Nov. 6

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • U.S. Bioenergy Statistics
  • Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
  • Aquaculture Data
  • U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories

Thursday, Nov. 7

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • UN Food and Agriculture World Food Prices
  • UN FAO biannual Food Outlook report, which will include food import bill
  • China International Oils and Oilseeds Conference, Guangzhou
  • China agriculture outlook committee to publish monthly forecasts on supply/demand of soybeans, corn, cotton, sugar

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change

Friday, Nov. 8

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • WASDE
  • Cotton Ginnings
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, Nov. 4

  • President Trump hosts the Washington Nationals, the World Series champions.
  • The 2nd Houston Gas & LNG Forum takes place Nov. 4 and 5, featuring multiple House members as speakers, including Reps. Randy Weber (R-Texas) and Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas).
  • Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is in Bangkok, Thailand, for the East Asian Summit and US-ASEAN Summit with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to attend.
  • Middle East oil. American Historical Association's National History Center briefing on "The Geopolitics of Middle East Oil."
  • Climate & energy policies. Atlantic Council discussion on "An Assessment of Democratic Presidential Candidates' Climate and Energy Policies: Views from Across the Political Spectrum."
  • Energy security. Institute of World Politics (IWP) holds a lecture on "Measuring Energy Security Risk: Assessing Risk in a Global Energy Market."

Tuesday, Nov. 5

  • Election Day across much of the U.S. This off-year election features gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi, as well as a runoff in Louisiana on Nov. 16 — Gov. John Bel Edwards, the only Democratic governor in the Deep South, is facing Republican challenger Eddie Rispone, who describes himself as a conservative businessman, in a Nov. 16 runoff vote. Edwards fell short of a 50% majority in an October primary vote.
  • Nominations. Senate Energy and Natural Resources hearing on the nominations of Katharine MacGregor to be Interior deputy secretary; James Danly to be FERC member.
  • SEC meets to consider whether to propose new rules for proxy advisory firms amid corporate calls to rein them in.
  • CFTC open meeting. Agenda includes: Proposed Rule, Correcting Amendment to Commission Regulation 160.30 (Privacy of Consumer Financial Information); Foreign Board of Trade (FBOT) Applications of Euronext Amsterdam, Euronext Paris, and European Energy Exchange; and Other Commission business.
  • National security. Senate Homeland Security Cmte hearing on national security threats.
  • Big tech and data security. Senate Judiciary panel hearing on how big tech leaves data exposed to criminals, China and other “bad actors.”
  • Blockchain. Electronics Division of the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) webinar on "Understanding Blockchain Technology for Trusted Microelectronics Supply Chain Application."
  • 2020 election preview. George Washington University's (GWU) School of Media and Public Affairs (SMPA)discussion previewing the 2020 election.

Wednesday, Nov. 6

  • Energy policy. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee hearing on the Energy Policy Act of 2005.
  • Clean Water Act. U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments in a Clean Water Act case that could impose major limits on Act.
  • Environmental regs. Senate Environment and Public Works hearing on S 2662, the "Growing American Innovation Now Act."
  • Budget reform. Senate Budget Committee markup of S 2765, the "Bipartisan Congressional Budget Reform Act."
  • Migrant health care. Health and Human Services Department Health Resources and Services Administration meeting of the National Advisory Council on Migrant Health on issues related to migrant and seasonal agricultural worker health, November 6-7."
  • Dodd-Frank issues. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) symposium on section 1071 of the Dodd-Frank Act, which amended the Equal Credit Opportunity Act to "require financial institutions to collect, report and make public certain information concerning credit applications made by women-owned, minority-owned and small businesses."
  • Energy issues. R Street Institute discussion on "Understanding Carbon-Neutral and Carbon-Negative Technologies."

Thursday, Nov. 7

  • American Agricultural Law Association symposium through Saturday, Arlington, Va.
  • Rural development. Senate Agriculture Committee hearing on 2018 Farm Bill rural development programs.
  • Energy production. Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) on Thursday morning, to discuss U.S. energy production and the effects of recent events on the United States' position in the global energy space.
  • Energy development on public lands. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on S 2418, to amend the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 to modify a definition and the disposition and authorized uses of qualified outer Continental Shelf revenues under that act and to exempt state and county payments under that act from sequestration, to provide for the distribution of certain outer Continental Shelf revenues to the state of Alaska; and S 2666, to promote the development of renewable energy on public land.
  • Solar energy. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) forum on "Solar Goes Corporate" to discuss how businesses can effectively procure, deploy and invest in clean energy technologies such as solar, battery storage, wind and energy efficiency.
  • U.S., China competition. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) discussion on "U.S.-China Competition and the International Order."
  • Brexit. New America discussion on "What Now for Britain?" focusing on the Future of Brexit.

Friday, Nov. 8

  • China trade issues. International Trade Commission meeting to vote on Inv. Nos. 701-TA-630 and 731-TA-1462, Glass Containers from China, and is scheduled to complete and file its determinations on November 12, 2019; and vote on Inv. Nos. 701-TA-623 and 731-TA-1449, Vertical Metal File Cabinets from China, and is scheduled to complete and file its determinations and views of the Commission by November 21, 2019.
  • Immigration issues. House Small Business Committee field hearing on "Fostering the American Dream: How SBA Can Empower Immigrant Small Business Owners."
  • International energy issues. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) discussion on "Electrification Pathways to 2050," focusing on the electric power sector in the U.S., Japan and the European Union.
  • Venezuela. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) discussion on "Stabilizing Venezuela: What Now?"

 

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