Focus on Tuesday’s USDA Supply/Demand Forecasts

Posted on 01/10/2021 10:18 PM

House to push for impeachment | Fed chairman comments | Covid aid

 


Washington Focus


 

House could finish additional articles of impeachment Monday, vote on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) said the House could finalize articles of impeachment as soon as Monday, with members of Congress potentially voting on the articles on Tuesday or Wednesday. Around 185 House Democrats signed onto one article of impeachment on Friday introduced by Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and David Cicilline (D-R.I.) for "willfully inciting violence," culminating in the Wednesday breaching of the Capitol Hill complex that left five dead.

 

     House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in a statement Sunday that the House will attempt to pass a resolution by unanimous consent Monday morning calling for Vice President Mike Pence and Trump’s Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from office. If the resolution doesn’t pass by unanimous consent — and it is not likely to pass due to likely Republican resistance —then the measure will be brought to the floor for a full vote on Tuesday. The resolution will call on Pence to respond within 24 hours. “Next,” Pelosi said. “We will proceed with bringing impeachment legislation to the Floor.”

 

     Delay likely in sending House impeachment articles to the Senate. Even if the House votes on articles this week, Pelosi may wait to send the articles to the Senate until after President-elect Joe Biden has an opportunity to get his Cabinet approved and work on ambitious goals for his first 100 days. The Senate won’t reconvene until Jan. 19 and GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) sent a memo to Republican senators on Friday outlining how an impeachment trial could work, saying it would be impossible to do it before Joe Biden becomes president.

 

     Calls for Trump to resign. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), appearing Sunday on CNN's State of the Union and NBC's Meet the Press, became the second Republican senator to call for President Trump to resign, after Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Meanwhile, a group of seven House Republicans appealed to Biden on Saturday, asking him to urge Pelosi not to move forward with impeachment.

 

     Manchin: 'Judicial path' better to address Trump behavior than impeachment. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said "there is no doubt" that the House should impeach President Trump following Wednesday's attack on the Capitol Hill complex but said it might be more appropriate to pursue a "judicial path" once Trump is out of office rather than a Senate hearing. Appearing on CNN, Manchin said: “The rule of law is who we are. That's our bedrock. And that means no person is above the law. If people have died, and we know they have, and all the damage that was done, and insurrection, on our own capitol, someone has to go to be held accountable for that, so it never happens again or doesn't come within our borders, within our country. That has to stop and never can be allowed. I would think that that would be a better position to take, and that would be a better route to go versus taking a political route." Manchin added that judicial action should "absolutely" also be taken against members of Trump's inner circle "who played a role" in inciting Wednesday's violence, including Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump Jr., and Alabama Rep. Mo Brooks.      Michael Sherwin, the acting U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, told NPR that “hundreds” of people might ultimately face charges over the storming of the Capitol Building, which left five people dead.

 

     Biden, asked about impeachment during a news conference Friday in Wilmington, said: "That’s a decision for the Congress to make. I’m focused on my job."

 

     Meanwhile, while members of Congress sheltered in a secure room amid the violence, they may have been exposed to coronavirus. Brian Monahan, the attending physician to Congress, emailed members on Sunday, warning: “Individuals may have been exposed to another occupant with coronavirus infection.”

 

     President Trump “didn’t commit incitement or any other crime,” says Jeffrey Scott Shapiro, who served as an assistant attorney general of the District of Columbia, 2007-09 and is a White House appointed official at the U.S. Agency for Global Media. In a commentary item in the Wall Street Journal (link), Shapiro writes that Trump didn’t mention violence on Wednesday, much less provoke or incite it. He said, “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” He details that District law defines a riot as “a public disturbance . . . which by tumultuous and violent conduct or the threat thereof creates grave danger of damage or injury to property or persons.” When Trump spoke, there was no “public disturbance,” only a rally, he adds. “The ‘disturbance’ came later at the Capitol by a small minority who entered the perimeter and broke the law. They should be prosecuted,” Shapiro notes. “The president’s critics want him charged for inflaming the emotions of angry Americans. That alone does not satisfy the elements of any criminal offense, and therefore his speech is protected by the Constitution that members of Congress are sworn to support and defend.”

 

Biden to unveil coronavirus relief plan this week. The president-elect said he will offer details of his first Covid-19 aid proposal this Thursday with a price tag likely "in the trillions of the dollars."

 


Economic Reports for the Week


 

Economic reports in the week ahead are headlined by the consumer price release on Jan. 13 and retail sales on Jan. 15.

 

Monday, Jan. 11


     • Federal Reserve: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic discusses his economic outlook for 2021 during a virtual event hosted by the Rotary Club of Atlanta. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan participates in a virtual town hall hosted by his bank.
     • Bank of England policy maker Silvana Tenreyro speaks about negative interest rates.
     • China’s consumer prices are expected to be unchanged from a year earlier in December. Prices fell in November, due to a pullback in pork prices amid increased supply. China’s producer-price index likely fell 0.8% on year, compared with a 1.5% drop in November, as the price of thermal coal picked up.

Tuesday, Jan. 12


     • National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index for December. Economists forecast a 100.5 reading, below November’s 101.4.
     • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November. The number of job openings on the last business day of November is expected to be roughly the same as it was in October—6.65 million. 
    • Federal Reserve: Three Fed presidents speak on “Racism and the Economy: Focus on Education.” Speakers include the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren, the Dallas Fed’s Robert Kaplan, and the Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren presents an economic overview at a Boston Chamber of Commerce event.

Wednesday, Jan. 13


     • MBA Mortgage Applications
     • BLS reports the consumer price index for December. Consensus estimate is for a 1.2% year-over-year increase, similar to the November figure. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 1.6%, matching the rise in November.
     • Treasury Department reports U.S. budget data for December. For fiscal 2020, which ended in September, the budget deficit hit a record high of $3.1 trillion, spurred on by massive Covid-19 relief spending.
     • Federal Reserve: Philadelphia Fed President Pat Harker discusses the economic outlook during a virtual event hosted by the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia.
     • ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at an online conference on the EU economy post-Covid and post-Brexit.

Thursday, Jan. 14


     • U.S. jobless claims are expected to remain elevated in the week ended Jan. 9, reflecting a high level of layoffs as Covid-19 cases accelerated and governments imposed more restrictions on businesses.
     • Fed Balance Sheet
     • Money Supply
     • Federal Reserve: Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes part in a Princeton Economics webinar Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren to speak at “Recover Boston: The Road Ahead — Economic Issues in 2021,” hosted by the Boston Business Journal. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic moderates a virtual panel on small business recovery.
     • China’s exports are forecast to increase 12.9% from a year earlier in December, a slowdown from November’s 21.1% surge, as another surge of coronavirus cases in Europe and the U.S. puts pressure on external demand for Chinese goods.
     • Germany will become the first large economy to release an official estimate of its gross domestic product in 2020, almost certainly recording the first contraction since 2009. The contraction is expected to be of roughly the same magnitude as in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, when GDP fell 5%.

Friday, Jan. 15


     • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for January. Expectations are for an 81.4 reading, similar to December’s.
     • Census Bureau reports retail sales data for December. Economists forecast a 0.1% month-over-month rise in consumer spending to $547 billion. Retail sales fell 1.1% in November. With autos excluded, retail sales are expected to be up 0.4%, after declining 0.9% in the previous month.
     • BLS releases the Producer Price Index for December. Consensus estimate is for a 0.1% month-over-month uptick, matching the November data.   
     • U.S. industrial production is expected to increase in December, reflecting another month of gains for factory activity. Manufacturing has been a relative bright spot in recent months as factories adapt to the pandemic.

 


Hearings and Events This Week


 

Monday, Jan. 11
     • Farm Bureau annual meeting. American Farm Bureau Federation annual meeting in a virtual format.
     • Energy transitions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) virtual news conference "to announce new projects and key priorities for the coming year in line with its focus on accelerating clean energy transitions."
     • Automated vehicles. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Deputy (NHTSA) Administrator James Owens and Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) Deputy Administrator Wiley Deck virtual press event to make an announcement about the Automated Vehicle Transparency and Engagement for Safe Testing (AV TEST) Initiative.
     • U.S. trade policy. Bracewell and Hogan Lovells webinar on "U.S. Trade Policy in the Biden Administration."
     • Incoming California U.S. senator. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Sen.-designate Alex Padilla, California Secretary of State.
     • 50-50 Senate. Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) virtual discussion on "Navigating a 50-50 Senate."


Tuesday, Jan. 12
     • State of American business. U.S. Chamber of Commerce webinar on "The 2021 State of American Business."
     • Blueberry trade. International Trade Commission teleconference to determine whether fresh, chilled, or frozen blueberries are being imported into the United States in such increased quantities as to be a substantial cause of serious injury, or the threat thereof, to the domestic industry.
     • U.S. foreign policy. Institute for Policy Studies webinar on "Setting a Progressive Foreign Policy Agenda."
     • U.S./U.K. relations. Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion on "the enduring strength of the U.S./U.K. partnership and how the nations are collaborating to advance mission needs related to cybersecurity, counterterrorism and great power competition."
     • U.S. Armed Forces. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on "Civilian Control of the Armed Forces."
     • U.K. G7 presidency. Atlantic Council webinar on "Economic Statecraft with U.K. G7 Presidency."
     • U.S. Forest Service. American Bar Association (ABA) virtual discussion "U.S. Forest Service Transition: More of the Same, or New Policy Direction?"
     • Campaign finance. Cato Institute virtual book discussion on "Campaign Finance and American Democracy: What the Public Really Thinks and Why It Matters."
     • Telecommunications. National Grange and the Multicultural Media, Telecom and Internet Council virtual discussion with FCC Chairman Ajit Pai.
     • Russia cyber attack. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on intelligence concerns with William Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, including the Russian hack of U.S. federal agencies and businesses late last year, and China targeting President-elect Biden and his incoming administration.
     • Covid-19. National Press Club Newsmaker Program virtual discussion on "Covid-19 and the Long Road to Recovery."
     • China and the WTO. Global Business Dialogue webinar on "China, the World, and the World Trade Organization (WTO)."
     • Climate change. American Security Project (ASP) holds a webinar on "Beyond Our Borders: A Discussion on the International Cooperation Needed for Climate Change.”
     • Presidential transition. New York University (NYU) Brennan Center for Justice virtual discussion on "Debate Defends Democracy: Presidential Power and Presidential Transition."
     • U.S./Japan relations. Brookings Institution webcast on "U.S./Japan Relations: Policy Challenges for the Biden Administration (Part 1: National Security and Politics)."

Wednesday, Jan. 13
    • First 100 days. CQ Roll Call and Fiscal Note webinar on "The First 100 Days — What to Expect."
     • Artificial intelligence. Federal Reserve Board virtual Artificial Intelligence Symposium.
     • Banks’ troubled assets. Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar on "The Accounting and Regulatory Challenges of Banks' Troubled Assets."
     • Biden administration and Iran. United States Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson Center (virtual discussion on "Joe Biden's Tough Challenges in Iran."
     • Section 230. New America webinar on "Section 230's Fate Under the Biden Administration" — referring to part of the Communications Decency Act.
     • Global competitiveness. U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual "Policy Power" hour on "America's Global Competitiveness," focusing on "the challenges and opportunities on the horizon at the state, national and global level."
     • U.S. travel and tourism. Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration teleconference of the United States Travel and Tourism Advisory Board to discuss key issues related to travel and tourism in the United States and for the Secretary of Commerce to charge the Board with recommending priorities in travel and tourism that should be addressed to support the recovery and growth of the sector and restore foreign travel to the United States.
     • Economic outlook. Canadian Association for Business Economics virtual lecture on full employment with Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard discussing "The Economic Outlook and Full Employment."
     • Sustainable energy issues. U.S. Energy Association webinar on "Sustainable Water Management for Decarbonizing Fossil Power Generation."
     • Covid-19 and state and local governments. Brookings Institution virtual discussion on "How can Congress best help state and local governments," about how the federal government can support spending in states and localities hit hard financially by the Covid-19 pandemic.
     • Asia-Pacific issues. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on the Asia-Pacific.
     • Global monetary policy. Hoover Institution virtual Monetary Policy Conference on "The Road Ahead for Central Banks."
     • Climate issues. Politics and Prose Bookstore virtual discussion on "The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back Our Planet."

Thursday, Jan. 14
     • Fed’s Powell comments. Princeton University's Center for Finance webinar with Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell.
     • U.S./Europe. Woodrow Wilson Center's Global Europe Program webcast on "Biden and Europe: Now What?"
     • Economic forecasts. American Bankers Association virtual news conference to present the latest consensus economic forecast from some of North America's largest banks.
     • USAID. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on "U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Economic Growth Policy Launch."
     • Spectrum sharing. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion with FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr on "Spectrum sharing and maximizing future tech."
     • Fiscal issues. Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar on "Fiscal Resiliency in a Deeply Uncertain World."
     • Covid vaccines and long-term care facilities. Kaiser Family Foundation (webinar on "A Shot in the Arm for Long-Term Care Facilities? Early Lessons from the Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout to High Priority Populations."
     • Spectrum management. National Telecommunications and Information Administration teleconference of the Commerce Spectrum Management Advisory Committee on spectrum management policy matters.
     • Covid vaccine rollout. Politico briefing via webcast on "Fast and Fair? The Covid Vaccine Rollout.”
     • EXIM board. Export-import Bank teleconference of the Board of Directors to discuss State Department vetting of EXIM transactions.
     • U.S./Canada relations. Meridian International Center virtual briefing on the U.S./Canada economic relationship and trade outlooks in 2021.
     • Global economy. Center for Global Development (CGD) webinar on "Global Economy in 2021: Light at the End of the Tunnel?"
     • Puerto Rico statehood. American Constitution Society for Law and Policy virtual discussion on "Puerto Rico's 2020 Statehood Referendum.”  

Friday, Jan. 15
     • U.S./China relations. George Washington University (GWU) Elliott School of International Affairs webinar on "U.S./China Relations Under the Biden Administration."
     • First 100 days of the Biden administration. American University (AU) virtual briefing to preview the Biden inauguration and first 100 days of presidency. Bloomberg Government also holds a separate webinar on the topic.
     • Transatlantic agenda. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on "A New Transatlantic Agenda."
     • U.S. and European relations. Brookings Institution holds a webcast on "World in Danger? Europe and the World in 2021."
     • India and the U.S. Hudson Institute webinar on "India and the U.S.: Strategic Partners for the Future."
     • U.S., China and Covid. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on "great power competition with China, Covid-19 relief efforts, the Trump administration's work on religious freedom, the future of U.S. foreign assistance, and opportunities and challenges for the incoming Biden administration."
     • U.S. communications policy. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion with FCC Chairman Ajit Pai on "decisions that reshaped U.S. communications policy."
     • U.S. foreign policy ahead. Ronald Reagan Foundation webinar on "U.S. Foreign Policy in 2021 and Beyond."

 


Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 


 

An ongoing bull market in soybeans, corn and other markets may get more fuel Tuesday when USDA releases its latest WASDE report on supply and demand forecasts that are finally getting more realistic after lagging USDA World Board forecasts last year. Key is how much of the coming forecasts are already baked into current prices.

 

Monday, Jan. 11
 

     Ag reports and events:

     • Export Inspections
     • U.S. winter wheat conditions, cotton harvested
     • Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB) data on end-Dec. stockpiles, output, exports
     • MPOB’s 2021 economic review and palm oil outlook seminar
     • Malaysia’s Jan. 1-10 palm oil exports
     • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
     • Holiday: Japan

 

Tuesday, Jan. 12
 

     Ag reports and events:

     • WASDE
     • Cotton Ginnings
     • Crop Production
     • Crop Production, Annual
     • Grain Stocks
     • Rice Stocks
     • Winter Wheat/Canola Seedings
     • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
     • Grains: World Markets and Trade
     • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
     • World Agricultural Production
     • Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

 

     Energy reports and events:

     • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
     • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
     • Pioneer Natural Resources & Parsley Energy shareholders expected to approve merger

 

Wednesday, Jan. 13
 

     Ag reports and events:

     • Broiler Hatchery
     • Feed Grains Database
     • Meat Price Spreads
     • Season Average Price Forecasts
     • Wheat Data
     • Turkey Hatchery
     • FranceAgriMer monthly crop report
     • Conab’s data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans in Brazil

 

     Energy reports and events:

     • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report

     • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
     • American Petroleum Institute annual "State of American Energy”

 

Thursday, Jan. 14
 

     Ag reports and events:

     • Weekly Export Sales
     • Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables
     • Oil Crops Outlook
     • Dairy Monthly Tables
     • Feed Outlook
     • Rice Outlook
     • Wheat Outlook
     • China customs 2020 trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat
     • International Grains Council monthly report
     • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

 

     Energy reports and events:

     • EIA natural gas storage change
     • China initial trade data (December)
     • Singapore onshore oil product stockpiles weekly update
     • Insights Global report on European refined product inventories in ARA region
     • Russia refinery outage data
     • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

 

Friday, Jan. 15
 

     Ag reports and events:

     • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report

     • Peanut Prices
     • Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables
     • Malaysia’s Jan. 1-15 palm oil export data

 

     Energy reports and events:

     • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
     • ConocoPhillips, Concho Resources shareholders expected to approve merger

 


 

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