Congress on Easter Recess; USDA S/D Reports Friday; Biden Budget Delayed

Posted on 04/04/2021 6:13 PM

IMF to release updated world and country economic forecasts

 


Washington Focus


 

The House and the Senate are not in session. USDA on Friday releases updated supply and demand forecasts. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take part in an International Monetary Fund (IMF) event on the global economy on Thursday at noon ET, with the IMF on Tuesday releasing updated world economic and country forecasts.

 

The first look at President Biden's fiscal 2022 discretionary budget request was not unveiled Friday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) confirmed. OMB declined to provide more specifics on the timeline for release, which had been expected last week. It seems there are funding disagreements among some departments, with most of the focus on the Pentagon.

 


Hearings and Events This Week


 

Monday, April 5

  • President Joe Biden delivers remarks at the White House regarding Easter.
  • Global economy. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group hold virtual 2021 Spring Meeting April 5-11.
  • U.S. economy. Chicago Council on Global Affairs virtual discussion with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the United States' role in the post-pandemic global economic recovery.
  • Carbon capture. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies discussion on "Carbon Captured: How Business and Labor Control Climate Politics."
  • International taxation. Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) conference call briefing to unveil a "framework to overhaul international taxation."
  • Covid and disinformation. Hudson Institute virtual discussion on "A Pandemic of Deception: Covid-19 and Disinformation Operations."
  • Emerging markets. Atlantic Council webinar on "Emerging Markets Recovery in 2021" with Mexican Finance Minister Arturo Herrera Gutierrez.
  • Japan-China relations. Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar on "Strategic Japan: The Future of Japan-China Relations."
  • DC statehood. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on "DC Statehood: Constitutional or Not?"

Tuesday, April 6

  • Global economy. International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group virtual 2021 Spring Meeting, with briefings on "The World Economic Outlook,” “Global Financial Stability Report,” and Covid and debt. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen; World Bank President David Malpass; and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, participate in a discussion on "Economic Recovery: Toward a Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Future."
  • Fruit and vegetable issues. Fruit and Vegetable Industry Advisory Committee to examine the full spectrum of fruit and vegetable industry issues and provide recommendations and ideas to the Secretary of Agriculture on how USDA can tailor programs and services to better meet the needs of the U.S. produce industry.
  • Food systems. Americas Society/Council of the Americas webinar on "Food Systems in the Americas: Toward a Comprehensive Approach."
  • U.S./China relations. Center for Strategic and International Studies (discussion on "Stronger: Adapting America's China Strategy in an Age of Competitive Interdependence."
  • Transportation improvements. National Transportation Safety Board teleconference on 2021-2022 Most Wanted List of Transportation Safety Improvements Proposal. National Transportation Safety Board Chairman Robert Sumwalt holds a media briefing after the meeting.
  • U.S./Bangladesh. U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual launch of the U.S./Bangladesh Business Council.
  • Russia policy. Atlantic Council webinar on "Russia Policy — American Interests and Values."
  • U.S./Japan relations. Hudson Institute webinar on "U.S./Japan Relations Under Biden and Suga: The Future of a Critical Alliance."
  • Energy employment report. National Association of State Energy Officials, the Energy Futures Initiative, and BW Research Partnership webinar on "Wages, Benefits, and Change: A Supplemental Report to the 2020 U.S. Energy & Employment Report."
  • Covid vaccines. National Press Club Newsmaker Program virtual news conference on "the latest developments in the Covid-19 pandemic and the status of the nation's vaccination program."
  • Filibuster. Brookings Institution webinar on "Filibuster 101: An Explainer of the Senate Rule and Reform."
  • China overseas lending. Johns Hopkins University Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies virtual seventh annual China/Africa Research Initiative Conference with the theme "China's Overseas Lending in Comparative Perspective," with a session on "Lenders and Borrowers in Distress."

Wednesday, April 7

  • Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.
  • Global economy. International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group virtual 2021 Spring Meeting, including the World Bank opening press conference and session with State Department Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry; and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, on "A Critical year for Climate Action"
  • Minority farmers. USDA Office of Partnerships and Public Engagement meeting by teleconference of the Advisory Committee on Minority Farmers.
  • WTO. Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar on "A Trade and Environment Negotiations Agenda in the World Trade Organization (WTO): Part 2."
  • World development. Business Council for International Understanding virtual discussion on "Roundtable on the World Development Report 2021."
  • Sanctions and humanitarian action. Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar on "Mitigating the Impact of Sanctions on Humanitarian Action."
  • Consumer products. Consumer Product Safety Commission webinar to receive views from all interested parties about the Commission's agenda and priorities for FY 2022.
  • Infrastructure proposal and cities. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Louisville, Kentucky, Mayor Greg Fischer (D), president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, about what the Biden administration's $2.25 trillion infrastructure and green energy proposal means for the nation's cities, and Biden’s pressing policy priorities.
  • U.S.-China-Mexico. Inter-American Dialogue webinar on "Developments in the U.S.-China-Mexico Triangular Dynamic."
  • Public lands and climate. Resources for the Future virtual discussion with former Interior Secretary Sally Jewell on public lands and climate issues.
  • National security and climate. American Security Project virtual discussion on "National Security Implications of Climate Change in Florida."
  • Argentina and energy. Woodrow Wilson Center's Argentina Project webinar on "Argentina's Lithium Industry and its Role in the Global Renewable Energy Transformation."
  • China issues. Institute of World Politics webinar on "How to Best Leverage U.S. Alliances and Partnerships Against the People's Republic of China (PRC)."

Thursday, April 8

  • Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to deliver remarks on the global economy. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard scheduled to speak.
  • Global economy. International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group virtual 2021 Spring Meeting, including remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
  • Trade issues. Washington International Trade Association webinar on "Why Do We Trade?" as part of the Worker Centric and Inclusive Trade series.
  • Economies and pandemic. Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar on "Economic Policy for a Pandemic Age: Inequality, Technology, and Lessons from East Asia."
  • Vaccine passport. Woodrow Wilson Center's Global Europe Program and Science and Technology Innovation Program webinar on "Vaccine Passports: A Public Health Solution or Ethical and Legal Minefield?"
  • U.K. and Brexit. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research webinar on "Global Britain in an Age of De-Globalization," focusing on U.K. policy in foreign, security and trade policy following Brexit.
  • Farm Credit meeting. Farm Credit Administration teleconference of the board.
  • Nuclear energy and climate goals. Atlantic Council webinar on "Raising Ambitions: The Role of Nuclear Energy in Meeting Climate Goals."
  • U.S./Africa policy. German Marshall Fund of the United States webinar on "U.S./Africa Policy."
  • Covid-19 and economics. Cato Institute virtual book discussion on "Economics in One Virus: An Introduction to Economic Reasoning Through Covid-19."
  • Paying for infrastructure. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget webinar on "Paying for Infrastructure."

Friday, April 9

  • Global economy. International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group virtual 2021 Spring Meeting, with World Bank President David Malpass participating in a discussion on "Covid-19: Vaccines for Developing Countries.”
  • Digital markets. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation virtual discussion on the House Report on Competition in the Digital Markets, issued last October, as part of the "Dynamic Antitrust" series.
  • U.S./China competition. Hudson Institute webinar on "Sino/U.S. Tech Competition: Where Does Europe Stand?"
  • Covid vaccines. Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar on "Trusting a Covid-19 Vaccine: What's Next?"
  • Tax increase proposals. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist on "President Biden's proposed tax increases and his $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan."
     

Economic Reports for the Week


 

Monday, April 5

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group hold 2021 spring meetings, virtually. The event will run through Sunday, April 11.
  • Institute for Supply Management Services Purchasing Managers’ Index for March. Economists forecast a 58.5 reading, higher than February’s 55.3.
  • PMI Composite Final
  • Factory Orders

Tuesday, April 6

  • IMF releases its world economic outlook during its annual spring meetings. The development agency is preparing to raise its forecasts for the global economy in 2021 and 2022 thanks to recent fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and increasing vaccination against Covid-19, but also highlight a growing divergence between wealthy countries that are quickly inoculating their populations and poorer ones that lack the resources to do so.
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February. Consensus estimate is for 6.9 million job openings on the last business day of February, close to the January data.

Wednesday, April 7

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen in February, and preliminary data for the month already show a record gap for trade in goods. The figures will likely underscore voracious consumer demand for products made overseas and the limited impact of tariffs on the overall deficit.
  • Federal Open Market Committee minutes from its mid-March monetary-policy meeting.
  • Federal Reserve consumer credit data for February. Total outstanding consumer credit stands at $4.18 trillion, slightly lower than the all-time peak of $4.21 trillion set in February of last year. In 2020, consumer credit remained essentially unchanged, the first year that it didn’t expand since 2008.
  • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scheduled to speak.

Thursday, April 8

  • Jobless Claims for the week ending on April 3. The four-week moving average of jobless claims this past week was 719,000, the lowest since March of last year.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva discuss the global economy at the 2021 spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group. The Fed has played a central role in backstopping the U.S. economy through the pandemic, though some economists are cautioning about possible negative side effects of U.S. stimulus both at home and abroad.
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at an Economic Club of New York event on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.
  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard scheduled to speak.
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply

Friday, April 9

  • BLS Producer Price Index for March. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise, matching the February increase.
  • Wholesale Inventories
  • China’s consumer inflation is expected to turn positive again in March after a small contraction in February. The producer-price index is likely to jump to 3% or more amid a surge in global commodity costs, especially for oil and coal, compared with a 1.7% increase in February. Economists are watching closely to see if price pressures at the factory gate start to filter out toward consumers in China and abroad.
     

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 


 

Friday brings USDA’s monthly updates on supply and demand. On the energy front, the EIA releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday.

 

Monday, April 5
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress: U.S. cotton plantings, winter wheat condition
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Council’s Pointers seminar (April 5-11)
  • Holiday: Easter Monday holiday in Australia, many European and African countries including U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Nigeria and South Africa. China also has a holiday

     Energy reports and events:

  • Saudi Aramco to publish official selling prices for May crude oil shipments (tentative date)

Tuesday, April 6
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
  • Holiday: Hong Kong, Thailand

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) including U.S. summer fuels outlook
  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, April 7
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Hatchery Production, Annual

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Genscape weekly crude inventories in Europe’s ARA region
  • U.S. Census crude export data
  • Russian Duma’s Energy Committee meets to discuss Russian oil industry development through 2035

Thursday, April 8
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Livestock and Meat International Trade Data
  • U.S. Agricultural Trade Data Update
  • FAO World Food Price Index
  • China’s CNGOIC soybean and corn reports
  • Conab’s data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans in Brazil
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • Russian weekly refinery outage data from ministry
  • Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region

Friday, April 9
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC Commitments of Traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • WASDE
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders weekly report
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

 


 

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