Biden to Unveil Next Phase of Economic Agenda Wednesday in Pittsburgh

Posted on 03/29/2021 4:09 AM

USDA on Wednesday issues key Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports

 


Washington Focus


 

The House and Senate are in their district work periods which mostly means an Easter recess.

 

President Biden is set to travel to Pittsburgh on Wednesday to formally unveil the first of two expected portions of the next phase of his economic agenda: a series of infrastructure proposals. The package would cost $3 trillion to $4 trillion — and will likely include billions in new tax revenue. While Democrats see this as an opportunity to raise taxes on big corporations and the wealthy, they do not agree on the details. And because Republican support is unlikely, Democrats have no room for error in a closely divided Senate. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has signaled openness to making changes to the 2017 tax overhaul. Manchin is also the focus by some to end the filibuster. Eliminating that voting mechanism would give Manchin even more influence in the 50-50 Senate, but he’s against doing so.

 

The White House this week is expected to release the broad outlines of its fiscal year 2022 budget request to Congress. The blueprint will likely call for a major increase in domestic spending starting next fiscal year, particularly targeting federal agencies that tackle education, climate change, housing insecurity and other longtime Democratic priorities, according to the party’s top congressional aides.

 

On the agriculture front, USDA on Wednesday releases important reports on Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks.

 


Hearings and Events This Week


 

Monday, March 29

  • President Joe Biden holds an American Rescue Plan event at the White House “to continue laying out his vision for the future of our country.”
  • Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller scheduled to speak.
  • Codex meeting. U.S. Codex Office teleconference to provide information and receive public comments on agenda items and draft United States positions to be discussed at the Fifth Session of the Codex Committee on Spices and Culinary Herbs of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, which will convene virtually April 26-30, 2021.
  • UN Security Council. Secretary of State Antony Blinken chairs a meeting of the UN Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria.
  • Covid decision making. Johns Hopkins University Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies webinar on “Covid, Information, Decision-making, In Europe and the U.S.”
  • Artificial intelligence in the U.S., China. Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion on “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of U.S./China Technology Competition.”
  • Ocean resilience and climate change. Woodrow Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program, and the Natural Resources Defense Council webinar on “Building Ocean Resilience in the Face of Climate Change.”
  • U.S./China. Johns Hopkins University Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies webinar on “A 'Special Relationship' in Transition: U.S./China Power Dynamics in the Emerging 21st Century.”
  • IEA COP26 summit. International Energy Agency (IEA) virtual news conference to brief media on the upcoming IEA-COP26 Net Zero Summit taking place on March 31 to “accelerate the momentum behind clean energy.”
  • Economic issues. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion with Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
  • Global networks in U.S. and China. Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar on “Global Networks 2030: Developing Economies and Emerging Technologies,” focusing on the U.S./China technology competition.

Tuesday, March 30

  • Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and New York Fed President John Williams scheduled to speak.
  • Agricultural trade issues. Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, the Virginia Farm Bureau Federation, the Port of Virginia, and the Virginia Tech Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, virtual 2021 Governor's Conference on Agricultural Trade. Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Agricultural Affairs and Commodity Policy Julie Callahan delivers remarks on “Trade Policy Priorities for U.S. Agriculture.”
  • Sanctions. German Marshall Fund of the United States webinar on “Sanctions and Tools of Economic Statecraft: Getting Allies' Act Together.”
  • U.S./Japan supply chains. Hudson Institute webinar on “Securing U.S./Japan Supply Chains After the Pandemic.”
  • Global economic outlook. Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, on “the economic outlook in the post-pandemic world and the actions needed to drive the recovery.”
  • North Korea. Center for American Progress webinar on “Reinvigorating Diplomacy with North Korea,” with remarks from Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Korea and Japan Marc Knapper.
  • China loans to Africa. Johns Hopkins University Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies' China-Africa Research Initiative, and the Boston University Global Development Policy Center webinar on “Chinese Loans to Africa, 2019 Data Update.”
  • Financial stability. Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar with Federal Reserve Board Governor Randal Quarles.
  • AfCETA. Business Council for International Understanding virtual discussion on “the African Continental Free-Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement and the impact of the agreement on financial flows in the context of fighting illicit economies in Africa.”
  • Mobil carriers event. Competitive Carriers Association virtual 2021 Mobile Carriers Show including remarks from Rep. Michael Doyle (D-Pa.) and FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr.
  • U.S. and Mideast. Cato Institute virtual forum on “Good Money after Bad? What Does America Need from the Mideast.”
  • Energy issues. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the “Future of Energy.”
  • EXIM report to Congress. Export-Import Bank teleconference of the Advisory Committee to discuss EXIM policies and programs to provide competitive financing to expand U.S. exports and comments for inclusion in EXIM's Report to the U.S. Congress on Global Export Credit Competition.

Wednesday, March 31

  • President Biden in Pittsburgh will unveil more details of his infrastructure proposals, part one of an expected two-part package.
  • Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.
  • Plant protections. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service teleconference of the Plant Variety Protection Board to discuss regulation updates, subcommittee activities, and program activities.
  • Clean energy. International Energy Agency virtual Net Zero Summit “to accelerate the momentum behind clean energy.”
  • Trade issues. Atlantic Council webinar on “Trade Disrupted: Global Shipping and the Future of International Commerce.”
  • Forest situation. World Resources Institute webinar on “What Happened to the World's Forests in 2020?”
  • Central bank digital currencies. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Central Bank Digital Currencies.”
  • Mobile carrier issues. Competitive Carriers Association virtual 2021 Mobile Carriers Show with remarks from Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.).
  • Israeli elections. George Washington University (Elliott School of International Affairs webinar on “To Bibi or Not to Bibi: Israel's Endless Election.”

Thursday, April 1

  • Federal Reserve. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan scheduled to speak.
  • Rural broadband gap. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation webinar on “How to Bridge the Rural Broadband Gap Once and For All.”
  • Election security. House Administration Committee Elections Subcommittee hearing on “Voting in America: Ensuring Free and Fair Access to the Ballot.”
  • Energy issues. Atlantic Council webinar on “Drone-Based Natural Gas Leak Detection and Mapping,” as part of the Energy Source Innovation series.
  • Global economic prospects. Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) holds a webinar on “Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2021.”
  • Covid medical supply chains. Washington International Trade Association and the Association of Women in International Trade webinar on “Covid-19 and the Medical Supply Chain.”
  • Israel elections. Jewish Council for Public Affairs virtual discussion on “Post Israel Election Analysis.”

Friday, April 2

  • Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.
  • Holiday. Good Friday, with U.S. futures and equity markets closed; Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommending 11 am CT close for bond market.
  • TRIPS waivers and Covid vaccine access. American Bar Association (ABA) virtual discussion on “WTO TRIPS (Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property) Waivers, Local Manufacturing and Access to COVID Vaccines.”
  • Uyghurs. Jewish Council for Public Affairs virtual discussion on “Combatting the Genocide of the Uyghur People.”
  • Congressional redistricting. Chicago Lawyers Chapter of the Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies webinar on “The Future of Redistricting.”

 


Economic Reports for the Week


 

Monday, March 29

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas releases its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for March. The consensus estimate is for a 12.3 reading, below February’s 17.2. The index has had seven consecutive monthly positive readings, which indicate growth in the region’s manufacturing sector.

Tuesday, March 30

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for January. Economists forecast an 11% year-over-year jump in home prices, higher than the 10.1% rise in December. Three Western cities — Phoenix, Seattle, and San Diego — led the way in December, with gains of 13% or higher.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March. Expectations are for a 95 reading, compared with February’s 91.3. The index remains well off its 132.6 figure from February 2020, right before the pandemic hit the U.S.
  • FHFA House Price Index

Wednesday, March 31

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • ADP National Employment report for March. Economists forecast a gain of 401,500 jobs, after 117,100 were added in February, still a net loss of about 9.5 million private-sector jobs since March 2020.
  • Institute for Supply Management Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for March. The consensus call is for a 60.5 reading, a point higher than February’s. In January, the PMI hit a 2½-year high.
  • National Association of Realtors pending home sales for February. Expectations are for a 3% month-over-month decline, after a 2.8% dip in January. Home sales are off their peak, partly due to the lack of inventory to meet the demand.
  • China’s official purchasing managers index for manufacturing is expected to show that activity has been rebounding in March following disruptions related to Lunar New Year holidays in February. China’s industrial sector led its economic recovery from the coronavirus shocks last year, but factory production last month posted its slowest rate of expansion in nine months.

Thursday, April 1

  • Jobless Claims: U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level of the pandemic in mid-March, a trend expected to continue as stronger hiring and another round of government stimulus drive an economic revival. Economists are forecasting a fresh pandemic low for jobless claims in the week ending March 27, though weekly figures have proven volatile.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI for March. Economists forecast a 60.5 reading, roughly even with February’s. The index matched its post-financial-crisis peak of 60.8 in February.
  • Census Bureau construction spending for February. The consensus estimate is for spending to decline 0.8%, month over month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.51 trillion, after a 1.7% rise previously.
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply

Friday, April 2

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report for March. The economy is estimated to have added 525,000 nonfarm payrolls, after a 379,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate is seen edging down, from 6.2% to 6.0%, which would be the lowest figure since before the pandemic. But even with another month of strong employment gains, the U.S. will still have millions fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic struck, underscoring widespread dislocation and an incomplete recovery.
  • Motor vehicle sales

 


Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 


 

Wednesday brings major USDA reports: Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks.

 

Monday, March 29
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Livestock and Meat Domestic Data

Tuesday, March 30
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • State Stories
  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook
  • Egg Products

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Wednesday, March 31
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Grain Stocks
  • Prospective Plantings
  • Rice Stocks
  • Rice Yearbook Tables
  • Agricultural Prices

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting ahead of OPEC+ meeting
  • EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, including oil & gas production report
  • ICE May Brent crude futures expire
  • Nymex April ULSD & gasoline futures expire
  • Genscape ARA crude inventories

Thursday, April 1
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Peanut Prices
  • Annual Milk Production and Factors Affecting Supply
  • Cotton System
  • Dairy Products
  • Fats & Oils
  • Grain Crushings

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • OPEC+ energy ministers meet, to set production targets for May, possibly beyond
  • Singapore onshore oil product stockpiles weekly update
  • Insights Global report on European refined product inventories in ARA region
  • Russian refinery outage data (weekly)
  • Baker-Hughes rig count (early due to Good Friday holiday)
  • Holiday: Mexico, Argentina and several other Latin American countries

Friday, April 2
 

     Ag reports and events:

  • Holiday. Good Friday, with U.S. futures and equity markets closed

     Energy reports and events:

  • Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory
  • Holiday: Europe, Africa, Americas and parts of Asia

 

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