Wide-ranging Guesses Reflect Widespread Crop Uncertainty

Posted on 08/08/2019 2:49 PM

USDA will update its Supply & Demand and Crop Production Reports Aug. 12 at 11:00 a.m. CT. Following are expectations heading into the reports based on a Reuters survey of analysts.

 

Expectations for 2019
U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Planted acres (mil.)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

13.193

164.9

87.998

80.050

Range

12.723-13.550

161.0-167.2

83.494-89.800

76.114-81.900

USDA July

13.875

166.0

91.700

83.600

 

 

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Planted acres (mil.)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

3.800

47.6

81.006

79.890

Range

3.663-3.974

46.0-49.0

78.00-83.500

77.300-82.800

USDA July

3.845

48.5

80.00

79.300

 

 

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Planted acres (mil.)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.*

21.99

NA

NA

NA

Range*

21.00-22.70

NA

NA

NA

USDA July

22.00

845

13.72

12.49

 

 

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

2.392

1.620

Range

2.220-2.490

1.281-1.900

USDA July

2.340

2.010

 

Soybeans – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

1.065

0.821

Range

0.988-1.124

0.607-0.950

USDA July

1.050

0.795

 

Wheat – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

NA

0.999

Range

NA

0.918-1.072

USDA July

1.072

1.000

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.*

NA

7.19

Range

NA

6.70-7.90

USDA July

5.00

6.70

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

329.84

290.09

 

Range

328.00-332.00

278.00-298.70

 

USDA July

328.75

298.92

 

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

113.27

104.77

 

Range

111.00-116.10

101.00-108.50

 

USDA July

112.98

104.53

 

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

275.02

284.08

 

Range

173.00-276.00

273.00-290.00

 

USDA July

275.15

286.46

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est. *

NA

81.07

 

Range*

NA

79.00-82.70

 

USDA July

79.27

80.42

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

Expectations for
U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.925

Range

1.873-1.990

USDA July

1.921

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.294

Range

1.270-1.324

USDA July

1.290

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

809

Range

799-834

USDA July

804

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

257

Range

250-259

USDA July

259

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

Average est.

228

Range

220-257

USDA July

227

Other Spring – million bu.

Average est.

569

Range

542-583

USDA July

572

Durum – million bu.

Average est.

57

Range

53-60

USDA July

58

 

 

 

 

 

                                  

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