USDA Unlikely to Make Any Big Change to its Corn Crop Estimate This Month

Posted on 07/09/2019 2:28 PM

USDA will release its July Supply & Demand and Crop Production Reports July 11 at 11:00 a.m. CT. Following are expectations based on a Reuters survey of analysts.

Note: Traders are expecting a slightly smaller corn crop from USDA. In reality, the corn crop likely will be higher than the June projection. The World Board will very likely incorporate NASS’s survey-based June acreage estimate, which is higher than it used in the June Supply & Demand Report, and is unlikely to adjust yield again this month after slashing it by 10 bu. per acre last month.

Bottom line: The average pre-report estimate for the corn crop in Thursday’s report is too small, in our opinion. As a result, the report could get a negative reaction even if the data isn’t bearish.

 

Expectations for 2019
U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

13.664

165.0

Range

13.100-13.960

162.0-167.0

USDA June

13.68

166.0

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

3.883

48.6

Range

3.738-4.100

47.0-51.0

USDA June

4.150

49.5

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Average est.*

21.86

NA

Range*

21.50-22.30

NA

USDA June

22.00

842

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

2.197

1.692

Range

2.065-2.295

1.450-1.975

USDA June

2.195

1.675

 

Soybeans – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

1.044

0.812

Range

0.935-1.137

0.558-1.040

USDA June

1.070

1.045

 

Wheat – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

NA

1.043

Range

NA

0.990-1.092

USDA June

1.102

1.072

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.*

NA

6.53

Range

NA

6.10-6.95

USDA June

4.65

6.40

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

325.93

292.48

 

Range

324.00-329.690

289.70-298.00

 

USDA June

325.38

290.52

 

 

Soybeans – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

112.77

109.17

 

Range

111.64-116.10

103.00-115.90

 

USDA June

112.80

112.66

 

 

Wheat – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

275.75

292.43

 

Range

273.00-277.00

286.40-295.00

 

USDA June

276.57

294.34

 

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est. *

NA

77.38

 

Range*

NA

76.50-78.50

 

USDA June

77.53

77.26

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

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