USDA Surprises with Bigger Corn Crop and Smaller Bean Crop Estimates

Posted on 08/12/2019 10:59 AM

2019
U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Planted acres (mil.)

Harvested acres (mil.)

USDA

13.901

169.5

90.005

82.017

Average est.

13.193

164.9

87.998

80.050

USDA July

13.875

166.0*

91.700

83.600

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Planted acres (mil.)

Harvested acres (mil.)

USDA

3.680

48.5

76.700

75.866

Average est.

3.800

47.6

81.006

79.890

USDA July*

3.845

48.5*

80.00

79.300

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Planted acres (mil.)

Harvested acres (mil.)

 

22.52

855

13.903

12.637

Average est.**

21.99

NA

NA

NA

USDA July

22.00

845

13.72

12.49

 

* Generated by a World Board forecast model. 
**Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

2.360

2.181

Average est.

2.392

1.620

USDA July

2.340

2.010

 

Soybeans – billion bushels

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

1.070

0.755

Average est.

1.065

0.821

USDA July

1.050

0.795

 

Wheat – billion bushels

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

1.072

1.014

Average est.

NA

0.999

USDA July

1.072

1.000

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

5.25

7.20

Average est.*

NA

7.19

USDA July

5.00

6.70

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

328.58

307.72

Without China

116.74

107.10

Average est.

329.84

290.09

USDA July

328.75

298.92

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

114.53

101.74

Without China

94.33

82.37

Average est.

113.27

104.77

USDA July

112.98

104.53

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

275.49

285.40

Without China

135.72

140.57

Average est.

275.02

284.08

USDA July

275.15

286.46

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

80.27

82.45

Without China

44.68

47.43

Average est. *

NA

81.07

USDA July

79.27

80.42

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2018-19

August (July)

2019-20

August (July)

 

U.S.

366.29 (366.29)

353.09 (352.44)

 

Argentina

51.00 (51.00)

50.00 (50.00)

 

Brazil

101.00 (101.00)

101.00 (101.00)

 

South Africa

11.50 (11.50)

14.00 (14.00)

 

Ukraine

35.81 (35.81)

36.50 (34.00)

 

China

257.33 (257.33)

254.00 (254.00)

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2018-19

August (July)

2019-20

August (July)

 

U.S.

123.66 (123.66)

100.16 (104.64)

 

Argentina

56.00 (56.00)

53.00 (53.00)

 

Brazil

117.00 (117.00)

123.00 (123.00)

 

Paraguay

9.00 (9.00)

10.20 (10.20)

 

China

15.90 (15.90)

17.00 (17.00)

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

August (July)

2019-20

August (July)

 

U.S.

51.29 (51.29)

53.89 (52.28)

 

Argentina

19.50 (19.50)

20.50 (20.00)

 

Australia

17.30 (17.30)

21.00 (21.00)

 

Canada

31.80 (31.80)

33.30 (33.30)

 

EU

136.86 (137.22)

150.00 (151.30)

 

Russia

71.69 (71.69)

73.00 (74.20)

 

Ukraine

25.06 (25.06)

29.20 (29.00)

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

August (July)

2019-20

August (July)

 

U.S.

18.37 (18.37)

22.52 (22.00)

 

Australia

2.40 (2.40)

1.90 (1.90)

 

Brazil

12.80 (12.80)

12.00 (12.00)

 

India

26.50 (26.50)

29.00 (29.00)

 

China

27.75 (27.75)

27.75 (27.75)

 

 

 

Expectations for
U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.980

Average est.

1.925

USDA July

1.921

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.326

Average est.

1.294

USDA July

1.290

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

840

Average est.

809

USDA July

804

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

257

Average est.

257

USDA July

259

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

USDA

229

Average est.

228

USDA July

227

Other Spring – million bu.

USDA

597

Average est.

569

USDA July

572

 

 

Durum – million bu.

USDA

57

Average est.

57

USDA July

58

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