USDA to Release First Survey-Based Look at Corn and Soybeans

Posted on 08/08/2017 2:16 PM

According to pre-report expectations compiled by Reuters, traders expect USDA to trim its corn and soybean crop forecasts from last month's projections when it releases its first survey-based estimates Aug. 10 at 11:00 a.m. CT. Traders look for USDA to trim its corn yield by 4.5 bu. per acre from trendline to 166.2 bu. per acre for a crop of 13.855 billion bushels.

Comparatively, traders expect a smaller reduction to USDA's soybean crop peg. According to pre-report expectations, traders look for USDA to trim its soybean yield peg by 0.5 bu. per acre from trendline to 47.5 bu. per acre for a crop of 4.212 billion bushels.

 

Yield -- in bu. per acre

Production -- in billion bu.

Commodity

Avg.

Range

USDA July

Avg.

Range

USDA July

 

Corn

166.2

162.8-168.5

170.7

13.855

13.590-14.070

14.255

Soybeans

47.5

46.9-48.0

48.0

4.212

4.165-4.307

4.260

Meanwhile, traders expect USDA to trim 2017-18 corn, soybean, wheat and cotton carryover from last month. According to pre-report expectations, traders look for USDA to trim new-crop corn carryover by around 320 million bu. from last month to just over 2 billion bushels. Soybean carryover is expected to decline by 36 million bu. to 424 million bu., wheat carryover is expected to decline by around 31 million bu. to 907 million bu. and cotton carryover is expected to drop by 500,000 bales to 4.8 million bushels.

Traders expect USDA to raise its 2016-17 corn carryover peg from last month to 2.386 billion bu., while old-crop soybean carryover is expected to decline by around 9 million bu. to 401 million bushels.

 

2016-17

2017-18

Commodity

Avg.

Range

USDA July

Avg.

Range

USDA July

in billion bushels

Corn

2.386

2.340-2.730

2.370

2.003

1.642-2.375

2.325

Soybeans

0.401

0.370-0.420

0.410

0.424

0.369-0.474

0.460

Wheat

--

--

1.184

0.907

0.806-0.948

0.938

Cotton (mil. bales)

--

--

3.20

4.80

4.10-5.40

5.30

Traders expect USDA to trim the size of the other spring wheat crop by 30 million bu. from last month to 393 million bushels. With other wheat flavors expected to see just minor tuning, traders look for all wheat production to decline by 49 million bu. from last month to 1.711 billion bushels.

2017 Wheat Production

Avg.

Range

USDA
July

in billion bushels

All wheat

1.711

1.550-1.784

1.760

All winter

1.278

1.258-1.293

1.279

HRW

0.756

0.737-0.775

0.758

SRW

0.307

0.300-0.311

0.306

White winter

0.215

0.205-0.224

0.216

Other spring

0.393

0.350-0.440

0.423

Durum

0.056

0.050-0.065

0.058

 

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