U.S. Corn, Soybean Ending Stocks Expected to Decline

Posted on 09/10/2019 9:31 AM

Pre-report estimates from a Reuters poll signal traders anticipate the expected drop in crop size will lead to reductions in the U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks forecasts for 2019-20 in Thursday’s Supply & Demand Report. Our fear is that any decline in corn production will be mostly (or fully) offset by higher beginning stocks, which could keep new-crop corn carryover from dropping as much as the average pre-report estimate implies. Little change is expected to wheat and cotton ending stocks this month.

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

2.401

2.002

Range

2.280-2.460

1.570-2.269

USDA August

2.360

2.181

 

Soybeans – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

1.054

0.660

Range

1.015-1.084

0.565-0.797

USDA August

1.070

0.755

 

Wheat – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.

NA

1.016

Range

NA

0.989-1.034

USDA August

1.072

1.014

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2018-19

2019-20

Average est.*

NA

7.14

Range

NA

6.40-8.50

USDA August

5.25

7.20

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

329.33

303.18

 

Range

328.58-332.30

292.70-310.00

 

USDA August

328.58

307.72

 

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

114.23

100.11

 

Range

113.00-115.00

97.00-102.50

 

USDA August

114.53

101.74

 

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est.

275.60

285.71

 

Range

275.49-276.00

283.00-287.50

 

USDA August

275.49

285.40

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

2019-20

 

Average est. *

NA

82.43

 

Range*

NA

81.20-83.55

 

USDA August

80.27

82.45

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

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