Soybean Bookings as Percent of Exports at 103%

Posted on 05/04/2017 11:29 AM

Export Performance Indicator update... Following is a snapshot of how exports are stacking up. The data compares how USDA's export forecasts are performing against USDA's Weekly Export Performance Indicator. Click here for this morning's weekly report.

Corn: With one-third of the 2016-17 marketing year left, total corn bookings are running 37% ahead of year-ago, which is down one point from the previous week. USDA projects 2016-17 exports at 2.225 billion bu., which represents a 17.2% increase from 2015-16. USDA reports total bookings as a percent of total exports are at 92%, compared to 81% a year-ago and the five-year average of 90%. This suggests there is room for USDA to raise its export forecast in next week's Supply & Demand Report, although we wouldn't be surprised if they kept with the status quo to see how exports perform through the spring months.

Soybeans: With one-third of the 2016-17 marketing year left, total soybean bookings are running 23% ahead of year-ago, which is down one point from the previous week. USDA projects 2016-17 exports at 2.025 billion bu., which represents a 4.6% increase from the previous marketing year. USDA reports total bookings as a percent of total exports at 103%, which compares to 91% a year-ago and the five-year average of 96%. Unless USDA expects large U.S. soybean sales cancellations during the last third of the marketing year, there is certainly more room for the agency to raise its export forecast in coming Supply & Demand Reports.

Wheat: With just a month left in the 2016-17 marketing year, total wheat bookings are running 39% ahead of year-ago, which is equal to the previous week's pace. USDA currently projects 2016-17 exports at 1.025 billion bu., up 32.3% from the previous marketing year. USDA reports total bookings as a percent of total exports are at 101%, which compares to 104% last year at this time and the five-year average of 103%. Typically at the end of the marketing year, remaining sales that were not shipped account for the "extra" supplies and are carried over into the new marketing year. The data suggests there is room for USDA to raise its export forecast, but we don't expect very much if any change.

 

 

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