Russian Wheat Crop Estimates Sliding

Posted on 07/08/2019 1:59 PM

IKAR, a leading ag consultancy in Russia, lowered its estimate of the country’s 2019 wheat crop by 800,000 MT to 78.5 MMT, as heat and dryness has drawn down crop potential.

Also today, the consultancy SovEcon lowered its wheat crop forecast from 82.2 MMT to 76.6 MMT, which also translated to a substantial (4.6-MMT) cut to its export forecast that now stands at 33.0 MMT, as we reported in “First Thing Today.”

A Reuters poll of 19 analysts today showed they still expect a rise in wheat production for the Black Sea region compared to last year, as favorable winter conditions helped the crop to withstand a June heatwave.

Specifically, survey participants expect Russia to produce a 78.0 MMT wheat crop, with exports at 36.5 MMT for 2019-20. That compares to USDA’s 36.0 MMT export projection for 2018-19. The survey participants expect Ukraine to grow a 27.8 MMT crop with exports pegged at 18.7 MMT, up notably from USDA’s 16.2-MMT projection for 2018-19.

On the other hand, analysts on average project a 13.6 MMT Kazakh wheat crop with exports at 7.5 MMT, down 1 MMT from USDA's export projection for 2018-19.

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