Rain Set to Improve South American Corn and Soybeans, Begin to Ease Drought in South Africa

Posted on 12/04/2018 12:00 PM

Dry conditions that have developed in parts of Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil the past 10 days will break next week as warmer temperatures usher in stronger storms and good coverage rains in many areas. The recent dry, cool weather is opposite of a normal El Nino pattern for this time of the year but does not mean a lasting, adverse change has developed, according to Kyle Tapley, the senior meteorologist at Radiant Solutions LLC.

Widespread rain should develop after Dec. 10 in Argentina, with many fields likely to get 1 to 2 inches of moisture next week. Only parts of southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa may miss out beneficial totals but still get some light showers, Tapley said.

Those rains should move north in Paraguay and southern Brazil by Dec. 15, alleviating dry soils and light crop stress. If those rains fail to develop, that may be a signal that something is changing in the weather pattern, increasing crop risks in January. Right now, those risks are very low, Tapley said.

A few areas of northern Brazil, including Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso may be getting too wet but they are isolated with most fields expected to be in generally good shape. Drier weather is expected to return late next week.

The one area of globe that has been struggling is South Africa. Dry weather the past month is increasing minor drought conditions and increasing corn crop stress in some areas. Showers will remain light and scattered early this week but should become more widespread late this week and next week. The increased rainfall will ease dryness, particularly in eastern portions of the corn producing region, Tapley said. 

Rain favors the UK, France, Germany, Czech Republic, and western Poland this week after some improvement during the past week. Still the region will need to get much-above-normal moisture this winter to boost depleted soil moisture levels before winter wheat and rapeseed emerges from dormancy next spring, Tapley said. Snow is expected across much of the Black Sea region the next week further increasing winterkill protections for winter wheat in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. Temperatures will remain well above levels that would produce damage in areas that fail to get enough snow.

U.S. feedlot conditions may see some improvement from warmer and mostly dry weather the next two weeks after recent rain and snow made for poor conditions, Tapley said. Warmer temperatures next week will melt snow and help to dry out feedlots across parts of the Plains and Midwest.

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