NOPA’s July Soybean Crush Shatters Expectations, Signals Strong Demand

Posted on 08/15/2019 12:00 PM

Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 168.093 million bu. of soybeans during July, the sixth highest monthly tally (for any month) on record and an impressive surge from June’s light 148.843 billion bushels. Last month’s crush also took out last year’s 167.733 million bu. for the July record-holder. The tally shattered expectations for a July crush of 155.826 billion bushels.

Perhaps even more encouraging, soyoil stocks dropped 68 million lbs. from June to 1.467 billion lbs. in July, a 20-month low and a 297 million bu. year-over-year drop. That’s also 63 million bu. lighter than analysts surveyed by Reuters expected. The drawdown is even more impressive when you consider the much larger than expected July crush. That points to robust demand.

Assuming the average of the recent relationship between NOPA and NASS data translates to a July industry crush total just shy of last year’s 178.861 million bushels, says Sr. Economist Rob Hatchett. That plus the assumption for relatively steady crush levels since in August and September of last year would imply a 2018-19 crush of 2.085 billion, which is 20 million bu. above USDA’s projection earlier this week, he continues.

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