Massive Pork Sales to Mexico and China

Posted on 10/18/2019 7:22 AM

Traders looked to today’s weekly export sales update for the week ending Oct. 10 for confirmation of big Chinese pork purchases as the country continues to work to fill a protein gap amid an outbreak of African swine fever, and today’s update did not disappoint. USDA reported massive sales of 292,200 MT for 2019, with Mexico buying 132,400 MT, China purchasing 94,000 MT, Japan buying 46,400 MT and South Korea buying 9,900 MT.

In a normal week, an overall tally above 30,000 MT would stand out as strong, so today’s tallies raised eyebrows. USDA issued a note confirming that the sales “accurately reflects what was reported to USDA by U.S. exporters.”

But the department muddied the waters with its comment that, “This week’s report includes a significant quantity of pork sales for the current marketing year that may have occurred in previous weeks but were not previously reported.”

The department also issued a correction to its net sales tally of 1.7 MMT of soybeans for the week ending Oct. 10, and now reports sales totaled 1.601 MMT. It offered no explanation for the change.

 

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report

Week Ended Oct. 10, 2019

Corn

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 368,500
2019-20: 368,600
2020-21: -100

Expectations (in MT)

2019-20: 400,000-800,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 368,600 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 30% from the previous week, but down 48% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (106,900 MT, including 71,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,300 MT), Colombia (102,600 MT, including decreases of 3,300 MT), Mexico (91,500 MT, including decreases of 13,800 MT), Honduras (27,000 MT), and Guatemala (13,400 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from Costa Rica), were partially offset by reductions primarily for Costa Rica (16,700 MT) and unknown destinations (7,700 MT).  For 2019/2020, total net sales reductions of 100 MT were for Canada.

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 556,600 MT were up 17% from the previous week and 33% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (255,600 MT), Japan (121,700 MT), Honduras (50,000 MT), Costa Rica (25,000 MT), and Panama (23,000 MT). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments early in the 2019-20 marketing year are 51% behind year-ago commitments versus 52% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 at 1.900 billion bu., down 8.0% from the previous marketing year.

Wheat

Actual Sales (in MT)

2019-20: 395,100

Expectations (in MT)

2019-20: 250,000-550,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 395,100 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 24% from the previous week, but up 11% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (78,900 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), Nigeria (77,000 MT), unknown destinations (56,500 MT), Bangladesh (55,000 MT), and Japan (42,200 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Indonesia (1,200 MT) and the Leeward and Windward Island (400 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 510,900 MT were up 5% from the previous week, but down 1% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (118,800 MT), Mexico (100,800 MT), China (63,000 MT), Indonesia (53,800 MT), and Taiwan (50,500 MT). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are running 14% ahead of year-ago compared with 15% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 at 950 million bu., up 1.5% from the previous marketing year.

Soybeans

Actual Sales (in MT)

2019-20: 1,700,000

Expectations (in MT)

2019-20: 900,000-1,600,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 1,601,000 metric tons for 2019/2020 were down 24% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (850,500 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Egypt (160,200 MT, including 169,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 13,700 MT), unknown destinations (137,100 MT), Mexico (102,000 MT, including decreases of 2,100 MT), and Thailand (84,700 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by reductions for the United Kingdom (2,900 MT) and Barbados (700).  

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 956,100 MT were down 8% from the previous week, but up 6% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Egypt (210,200 MT), Pakistan (139,100 MT), China (136,000 MT), Mexico (96,000 MT), and Thailand (85,400 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments early in 2019-20 are 13% behind year-ago levels, which compares to 20% behind year-ago last week. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 at 1.775 billion bu., up 1.5% from year-ago.

Soymeal

Actual Sales (in MT)

2019-20: 152,900

Expectations

2019-20: 150,000-400,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 152,900 MT for the 2019/2020, primarily for Mexico (54,500 MT), Colombia (27,400 MT, including decreases of 3,700 MT), Honduras (22,400 MT), Canada (19,400 MT), and Guatemala (16,000 MT, including 9,700 MT switched from El Salvador), were partially offset by reductions for unknown destinations (22,500 MT), El Salvador (15,300 MT), and Other Pacific Islands (1,000 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 301,900 MT were primarily to the Philippines (126,300 MT), Japan (28,800 MT), Canada (26,000 MT), Colombia (20,900 MT), and Honduras (20,300 MT).  

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments for 2019-20 are running 11% behind year-ago early in the marketing year. USDA projects exports in 2019-20 to edge 0.7% higher from the previous marketing year.

Soyoil

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 43,400
2019-20: 4,000
2020-21: 39,400

Expectations

2019-20: 0-25,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 4,000 MT for 2019/2020, primarily for Taiwan (3,000 MT), Colombia (1,000 MT), and Mexico (500 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Canada (700 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 39,400 MT were primarily to South Korea (14,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (13,500 MT), Guatemala (5,000 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), and Mexico (3,000 MT). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments for the 2019-20 marketing year are running 13% ahead of year-ago early in the marketing year.   USDA projects exports in 2019-20 to fall 14.8% from the previous year.

Cotton

Actual Sales (in RB)

2019-20: 206,500

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 206,500 RB for 2019/2020 were up 9% from the previous week and 36% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (108,800 RB, including 1,600 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 2,200 RB), Pakistan (64,800 RB), Bangladesh (13,900 RB), Thailand (10,600 RB), and South Korea (4,300 RB), were partially offset by reductions for Japan (2,600 RB) and Taiwan (200 RB).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 151,600 RB were up 2% from the previous week, but down 6% from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to Vietnam (35,700 RB), Mexico (15,800 RB), Pakistan (14,800 RB), Bangladesh (11,200 RB), and Turkey (9,900 RB).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments for 2019-20 are steady with year-ago versus 2% behind year-ago last week. USDA forecasts total cotton exports to fall rise 11.8% to 16.5 million bales this marketing year.

Beef

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 13,500
2019: 13,000
2020: 500

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 13,000 MT reported for 2019 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Japan (2,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (2,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Taiwan (1,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT).  For 2020, net sales of 500 MT were primarily for Canada (200 MT), Japan (100 MT), and Mexico (100 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 15,100 MT were down 8% from the previous week and 10% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (3,800 MT), Japan (3,400 MT), Hong Kong (2,100 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT), and Taiwan (1,400 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Last week, USDA reported a net sales reduction of 29,100 MT for 2019. USDA projects 2019 exports to slide 1.1% from year-ago levels.

Pork

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 351,100
2019: 292,200
2020: 58,900

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 292,200 MT reported for 2019--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (132,400 MT), China (94,000 MT), Japan (46,400 MT), South Korea (9,900 MT), and Canada (5,800 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Australia (200 MT).  For 2020, net sales of 58,900 MT were primarily for China (58,600 MT) and Japan (200 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 210,900 MT--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were to Mexico (135,800 MT), Japan (39,400 MT), China (13,800 MT), South Korea (9,500 MT), and Canada (7,100 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Sales totaled 154,800 in last week’s report. USDA projects exports in 2019 will rise 12.0% from year-ago.

 

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