It's August and Just 37% of the Bean Crop Is Setting Pods

Posted on 08/05/2019 4:25 PM

Corn condition rating slides a point, as expected

USDA rated 57% of the U.S. corn crop in “good” to “excellent” condition as of Aug. 4, a one-point drop from last week, as the market expected. The crop remains well behind last year, when near ideal weather had 71% of the crop receiving top marks. Dryness is an increasing concern, especially after a soggy spring got crops planted late and likely resulted in shallow root systems.

USDA’s update on topsoil moisture climbed six percentage points to 37% short to very short, including 57% in Illinois, 50% in Indiana, 38% in Ohio and 31% in Iowa. 

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

3

3

Poor

10

9

7

Fair

30

30

19

Good

47

47

50

Excellent

10

11

21

 

The crop continues to lag normal development by a wide margin. Seventy-eight percent of the crop was silking as of Aug. 4, a 20-point gain from last week but still 15 percentage points behind the five-year average.

USDA reports 23% of the crop has reached the dough phase, which is 19 points behind the norm. That includes 29% of the Illinois crop (58% on average), 16% in Indiana (40%), 20% in Iowa (42%), 39% in Kansas (50%), 15% in Minnesota (34%), 27% in Nebraska (40%) and 7% in South Dakota (31%).

 

No change in soybean condition ratings, but development remains troubling

 USDA maintained its 54% “good” to “excellent” rating for the U.S. soybean crop this week, whereas the market had expected a one-point decline. Last year at this time, USDA rated 67% of the crop “good” to “excellent.”

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

3

3

Poor

10

10

7

Fair

33

33

23

Good

45

45

51

Excellent

9

9

16

 

The department reports 72% of the crop is blooming, 15 percentage points behind the five-year average, and just 37% of the crop is setting pods, a dramatic 26 percentage points behind the norm. States from Iowa eastward are running at less than half the norm in terms of pod setting. Just 30% of the Illinois crop is setting pods (66% on average), along with 19% of the Indiana crop (65%), 33% of the Iowa crop (68%), 53% of the Minnesota crop (70%), 16% in Missouri (40%), 43% in North Dakota (69%), 51% in Nebraska (62%) and 33% in South Dakota (62%).

 

Spring wheat harvest begins

USDA continues to rate 73% of the spring wheat crop in “good” to “excellent” condition, but that did include a one-point shift from the “excellent” to the “good” category. Traders had expected USDA to put 72% of the crop in the top two spots. This year’s rating is near in line with last year’s.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

0

1

1

Poor

5

5

5

Fair

22

21

20

Good

63

62

60

Excellent

10

11

14

 

Spring wheat harvest is just getting started, with USDA reporting 2% had been harvested as of Sunday. That compares to 14% on average. Washington is farthest along at 10% (versus 29% on average), followed by South Dakota at 5% (42%). Idaho, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota are all 1% harvested versus 16%, 13%, 11%, and 8% on average, respectively.

 

Big drop in cotton condition ratings

 This week features a fairly dramatic decline in the amount of cotton rated in “good” to “excellent” condition—that figure dropped seven percentage points to 54%. But that’s still well ahead of last year when just 40% of the crop fell in the top two categories.

Cotton development is running near in line with the five-year average, with USDA reporting 95% of the crop is squaring, two points ahead of average, and 59% is setting bolls, two points behind the average. Half the Texas crop is setting bolls, which is right in line with the average pace for this time of year.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

1

1

11

Poor

12

10

21

Fair

33

28

28

Good

44

46

32

Excellent

10

15

8

 

Winter wheat harvest remains slow

Winter wheat harvest advance seven percentage points over the past week to 82% complete, which was two points lighter than the market anticipated and 10 points behind the five-year average.  

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