Consultant Notes Weather Challenges in the U.S. and South America

Posted on 10/01/2019 10:00 AM

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier again made no change to his U.S. corn yield or production estimates that stand at 162 bu. per acre and 13.04 billion bu., and he has a neutral bias going forward. He notes that excessive moisture in the central and northwest Corn Belt has probably not been beneficial for the crop as it slows maturity, increases disease pressure and could lead to some quality issues.

Cordonnier also stuck with his U.S. soybean yield estimate of 46 bu. per acre for a 3.47 billion bu. crop. Again, his bias is neutral going forward. He says,The weather has been a tale of two extremes – too much rain in parts of the central and northwestern Corn Belt, and too little rain in the mid-south, the south, and the southeastern U.S.” Heat and dryness for some areas hindered pod fill, while heavy rains in central and northwest areas were not beneficial for maturing beans. These areas already had ample moisture to finish.

Brazil soybean planting slowed by dry weather

Cordonnier also made no change to his Brazilian crop estimates for 2019-20, pegging the bean crop at 124 MMT and the corn crop at 105 MMT. He has a neutral bias toward both crops going forward. Dryness in Brazil continues to limit soybean planting, with rainfall thus far being widely scattered and variable.

Cordonnier says, “The weather for full-season corn planting has been better than for soybeans because nearly all of the full-season corn is planted in southern and southeastern Brazil.  Southern Brazil has received some showers and the forecast is calling for more rain over the next one to two weeks.”

Politics AND weather at play in Argentina

Argentina will likely produce a 57 MMT soybean crop and a 50 MMT corn crop, forecasts Cordonnier. This is unchanged from his outlook last week and his bias toward both crops is neutral. But his confidence in these pegs is low, as there is “a lot of uncertainty surrounding the weather and the crop acreages in Argentina resulting in a very wide range in estimates for both the soybean and corn crops.”

Increased spring planting over the next several weeks should provide more clarity. For corn, specifically, there is some concern about dryness in western and southern areas. And politics could limit planting of the crop, as there is fear an opposition candidate win could bring a return of export taxes and market intervention, particularly for corn.

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