Consultant Leaves Corn and Soybean Crop Pegs Unchanged, But Has Neutral to Lower Bias

Posted on 08/08/2017 8:37 AM

Pro Farmer Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged this week, but maintains a neutral to lower bias toward the crops due to dryness concerns in areas of the Corn Belt. He notes that last week's rains were lighter than expected, but the saving grace so far in August has been the cooler temps.

"The cool temperatures have helped to hold down the stress levels on the corn crop, but they have also slowed down the development of the corn crop," says Cordonnier. "If this pattern would persist going forward, it could make the corn crop more susceptible to an extra-early frost if that were to occur. I would not be too concerned about the possibility of frost damage unless the frost occurred about two weeks earlier than normal."

Meanwhile, Cordonnier notes that scattered showers have benefited the crop where it has been seen. "I thought the biggest winners in last week's weather was probably Minnesota and North Dakota and the biggest loser last week was Iowa," he notes.

Cordonnier expects USDA to lower its corn yield estimate in this week's Crop Production Report to be within a range of 166 bu. to 167 bu. per acre, from 170.7 bu. per acre currently. He expects USDA to trim the soybean yield estimate by one bu. per acre from its current peg of 48 bu. per acre, but not more than two bushels. Regarding soybean yields, he says, "I think the weather thus far in August has not been adverse enough to convince them to really cut the yields. Additionally, the forecast looks generally non-threatening, so they will probably be conservative in their estimate."

Cordonnier 2017 Production
Harvested
acreage
Yield
Production

million acres

bu. per acre
billion bu.
Corn
83.4
163.5
13.63
Soybeans
88.7
46.5
4.12

Specifically, Cordonnier outlines the following areas of concern for the U.S. crops:

  • The most recent Drought Monitor indicated that scattered showers brought some temporary relief to areas of the northwestern Corn Belt, but South Dakota is still 73% short on soil moisture with North Dakota 67% short, Nebraska 60% short and Iowa 56% short.
  • Iowa is the key state to watch going forward. Northwest Iowa is 86% short on moisture, central Iowa is 66% short, south-central Iowa is 95% short, and southeastern Iowa is 89% short.
  • Dryland corn and soybeans in Nebraska are also being impacted by the dry weather.
  • Dryness in central and western Illinois also continues to be a concern.
     

     

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