Consultant Cuts Corn and Soybean Crop Projections

Posted on 06/25/2019 9:57 AM

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his corn planted acreage projection 1 million acres this week to 85.3 million acres, noting that at this point it’s too late to plant or replant acres. He also said there will be more abandoned corn than normal, so he’s using a harvested acreage percentage of 88.5%, yielding a corn harvested acreage estimate of 75.5 million, down roughly 2 million acres from his previous estimate.

Cordonnier also hacked 5 bu. from his yield estimate, bringing it to 160 bu. per acre, explaining the main reason for his cut was “how late some of the corn is in the eastern Corn Belt.” Late emerging corn won’t pollinate until late August and then it’s going to be very difficult to reach full maturity before the first frost.

This translates to a 12.07 billion bu. corn crop estimate, down 730 million bu. from his projection last week and a dramatic slide from last year’s 14.420 billion bu. crop. “Everything is still a guess this year – planted acreage, harvested acreage, pollination, potential yield, and if the late planted corn will reach maturity before the first frost,” Cordonnier cautions.    

Consultant also takes a knife to his bean crop peg

Based on a recent trip through the eastern Corn Belt, Cordonnier said he is more confident not all the intended soybean acres will be planted. Therefore, he cut 2 million acres from his planted acreage estimate that now stands at 82.0 million and he lowered his harvested acreage percentage to 97.5%, which puts harvested acres at 79.9 million. Again, he explained he thinks there will be more abandonment than normal this year.

For now, he left his yield estimate at 45 bu. per acre, but he has a lower bias. “You always have to wait to estimate the soybean yield, but we already know that a lot of the late planted soybeans are going to be shorter than normal because they lost a month and a half of potential growth,” Cordonnier explains.   

This acreage and yield combination results in a soybean crop estimate of 3.59 billion bu., a 110 million bu. cut from his estimate last week and a 950-million-acre drop from year-ago levels.

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