Concerns About Yield Drag, Lower Acres Has Consultant Leaning Down on Crop Pegs

Posted on 06/18/2019 11:35 AM

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his U.S. corn planted acreage estimate of 86.3 million and his yield projection at 165.0 bu. per acre for a crop of 12.8 billion bu., unchanged from last week. But he has a lower bias toward both yield and acreage.

“The crop progress report indicated that the corn is 92% planted, but we don’t know if farmers planted all their intended corn or if they decided not to try to plant any more corn.  The prevent plant dates for corn are long past and I think very little more corn will be planted,” he explains, adding that any corn planted this week would not pollinate until the third week of August.

Therefore, he still assumes at least 6 million acres of corn will not get planted, adding that figure could climb to 8 million when adding in fields that won’t get replanted or will be abandoned.

Consultant also increasingly concerned about the bean crop

Cordonnier also maintained his 3.7 billion bu. soybean crop estimate on a planted acreage estimate of 84.0 million acres and a yield estimate of 45.0 bu. per acre.

 But he says he is “becoming more concerned that the soybean acreage may not reach 84.0 million due to the prolonged wet conditions,” adding that the forecast “does not look good” for the eastern Corn Belt where planting is most delayed.

He says we still have about two more weeks during which farmers will try to plant beans. On yield, he notes that the potential yield drag on soybeans planted after June 10 is about 20%, “and it gets much worse if the soybeans are planted at the end of June.”

With 19 million billion acres left to plant the latter half of June, he says the yield drag on these late planted beans is likely to be “very significant.”  

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