Canadian Wheat Plantings Surprise to the Downside

Posted on 06/26/2019 2:59 PM

Statistics Canada surprised the market with its all wheat planted acreage estimate of 24.595 million, which nearly 1.1 million acres lighter than both what was anticipated and what producers signaled in April. All wheat plantings are now expected to come in a bit under year-ago levels, with durum acres leading the decline amid lighter demand.

Acreage for most other crops came in roughly in line with what was expected. Canola plantings edged down a bit less than the market anticipated to 20.952 million, which MarketsFarm Editor Mike Jubinville says was likely a function of lower prices relative to year-ago. “While the seeded area in 2019 was the lowest since 2016, it still represented the fourth highest canola area on record,” he points out.

The average trade guess for barley and soybeans were nearly spot-on.

Of note, StatsCan noted that at the time of the survey (late May/early June), seeing in Western Canada was well underway, but planting in Eastern Canada had been delayed by wet, cool weather. “This may result in some changes in seeded area estimates later in the reporting cycle, as some estimates provided by farmers in Eastern Canada may have been intentions at the time of the survey,” the statistics agency noted. Sound familiar?

 

StatsCan
(mil. acres)

Average est.
(mil. acres)

April 2019
(mil. acres)

2018
(mil. acres)

All wheat

24.595

25.700

25.674

24.735

Durum

4.894

5.100

5.021

6.185

Canola

20.952

20.700

21.314

22.813

Barley

7.402

7.400

7.155

6.493

Soybeans

5.714

5.700

5.646

6.320

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