The commodity brokerage INTL FCStone is calling for a relatively light 1.6% gain in Brazil’s soybean planted area to 36.4 million hectares in 2019-20, which is expected to push the crop to 121.41 MMT, up 6.34 MMT from its 2018-19 estimate. This would make Brazil the world’s largest soybean producer. The firm expects soybean exports to climb to 75 MMT in 2019-20, a 5-MMT rise from the previous season.
FCStone also warns that 201-19 ending stocks are likely to be quite tight at just 1.41 MMT. The U.S./China trade war has helped Brazil ramp up its shipments of the oilseed to China earlier this year, despite an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF).
Williams shipping data cited by Reuters shows Brazilian soybean exports fell to 4.9 MMT in August, a 27% decline from year-ago levels and a 18% slide from July. Tightening supplies in Brazil and uncertainty about the U.S. crop has lifted Brazilian bean prices to relatively high levels. Export prices for Brazilian beans reportedly topped those for the U.S. by 7% in August.