Ahead of the Open: Corn, Soybeans Seen Down On Midwest Rain; Wheat Mixed

Posted on 06/11/2018 8:04 AM

Crop calls

Corn: Down 1-2 cents
Soybeans: Down 2 to 3 cents

Wheat: Mixed

Corn futures seen defensive as rains moved from North Dakota to Pennsylvania during the weekend with another storm on the way this week. Rains reached some of the driest areas, but also were accompanied by high winds and hail. While a few spots missed drought-easing rain and some damaged occurred, overall the market is trading beneficial moisture. The heat from Texas to Tennessee remains only a potential threat into July and August for the Midwest, which may slow further declines. Good U.S. crops offset by improving demand.  Quiet grain trade today ahead of monthly USDA supply and demand update on Tuesday.

 

Soybean futures will open lower after overnight rally stalls on Midwest rains. Trade is focused on President Trump meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, which is due to begin at 8:00 p.m. Central Time tonight. A positive outcome could prove advantageous to moving ahead on trade issues with China, the biggest global buyer. Palm oil futures in Malaysia continue to fall on slow exports, adding to the negative tone in the soyoil market today.

 

Wheat futures seen mixed.  Hot, dry weekend weather accelerated harvesting across the U.S. winter wheat belt and cash remains firm, a sign of commercial demand for this year’s higher-quality crop.  Forecasts still see limited rain for both Russia and Ukraine with crop estimates coming down while rains aid final planting in western Australia with eastern areas still parched. USDA’s world wheat production numbers closely eyed Tuesday.
 

Livestock calls                                                                      

Cattle: Steady to higher
Hogs:  Steady to higher

Cattle futures seen higher on improved packer bids last week and strong close on Friday. Additional gain from last week’s advances may be tempered by uncertainty whether packers will add to the $4 to $5 higher bids last week. Beef ended soft last week. Retail featuring down from year earlier activity with most focus on grilling items.

 

Hog futures rebounded last week and should open with a firm tone with cash bids leaning higher to start this week. Pork prices rose last week on moderate to good movement, Retail pork featuring improved last week, but still remain below a year ago.  Slaughter last week rose 3.1% above year ago. So even as slaughter rates slip seasonally, there is no shortage of market-ready animals. Key is moving more loin cuts. Concern about exports to Mexico have eased with tariff-free quotas available to move U.S. leg and shoulder meats.  

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