Market Did a Pretty Good Job Predicting USDA’s Cuts to Corn & Soybean Production

Posted on Fri, 09/11/2020 - 10:56

USDA’s carryover adjustments for the U.S. were also roughly in line with expectations. One of the more surprising elements of the report USDA’s 1-MMT cut to cotton production, which was bigger than the market anticipated.  

There were a few surprises on the global balance sheet, with USDA cutting new-crop corn carryover quite a bit more than expected. Also of note, the department raised 2020-21 wheat stocks roughly 2.6 MMT whereas traders had expected roughly a 1-MMT cut.

The following expectations are based on survey-work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).

2020 U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested (acres)

USDA

14.900

178.5

83.5

Average est.

14.898

178.3

83.5

USDA August

15.278

181.8

84.0

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested (acres)

USDA

4.313

51.9

83.0

Average est.

4.295

51.8

82.9

USDA August

4.425

53.3

83.0

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested (acres)

USDA

17.06

910

9.01

Average est.

17.57

NA

NA

USDA August

18.08

938

9.25

 

 

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2019-20

2020-21

USDA

2.253

2.503

Average est.

2.234

2.451

USDA August

2.228

2.756

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2019-20

2020-21

USDA

575

460

Average est.

600

465

USDA August

615

610

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2019-20

2020-21

USDA

1,044

925

Average est.

NA

924

USDA August

1,044

925

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2019-20

2020-21

USDA

7.25

7.20

Average est.

NA

7.01

USDA August

7.20

7.60

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2019-20

2020-21

USDA

309.15

306.79

World less China

108.08

123.41

Average est.

310.90

311.11

USDA August

311.30

317.46

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2019-20

2020-21

USDA

96.01

93.59

World less China

68.75

66.33

Average est.

95.70

93.11

USDA August

95.85

95.36

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2019-20

2020-21

USDA

299.78

319.37

World less China

148.10

154.11

Average est.

300.46

315.81

USDA August

300.91

316.79

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2019-20

2020-21

USDA

99.44

103.84

World less China

62.54

67.32

Average est.

NA

104.44

USDA August

100.56

104.91

 

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2019-20

September (August)

2020-21
September (August)

U.S.

 345.89 (345.89)

378.47 (388.08)

Argentina

50.00 (50.00)

50.00 (50.00)

Brazil

 102.00 (101.00)

110.00 (107.00)

South Africa

 16.25 (16.25)

14.00 (14.00)

Ukraine

35.89 (35.89)

38.50 (39.50)

China

 260.77 (260.77)

260.00 (260.00)

Soybeans – MMT

 

2019-20

September (August)

2020-21
September (August)

U.S.

96.68 (96.68)

117.38 (120.42)

Argentina

49.70 (49.70)

53.50 (53.50)

Brazil

 126.00 (126.00)

133.00 (131.00)

Paraguay

9.90 (9.90)

10.25 (10.25)

China

18.10 (18.10)

17.50 (17.50)

Wheat – MMT

 

2019-20

September (August)

2020-21
September (August)

U.S.

52.26 (52.26)

50.01 (50.01)

Argentina

19.75 (19.75)

19.50 (20.50)

Australia

15.20 (15.20)

28.50 (26.00)

Canada

 32.35 (32.35)

36.00 (34.00)

EU

154.94 (154.94)

136.15 (135.50)

Russia

 73.61 (73.61)

78.00 (78.00)

Ukraine

29.17 (29.17)

27.00 (27.00)

Cotton – million bales

 

2019-20

September (August)

2020-21
September (August)

U.S.

19.91 (19.91)

17.06 (18.08)

Australia

0.63 (0.63)

2.10 (1.90)

Brazil

13.40 (13.40)

12.00 (12.00)

India

29.50 (30.50)

30.00 (29.70)

China

 27.25 (27.25)

27.25 (26.50)