Diesel Firms A Penny

Posted on 03/05/2020 12:34 PM

 

Farm Diesel --farm diesel price chart

  • Farm diesel firmed a penny on the week. I do not believe the market is set to move higher however. This week, Michigan retraced a 33 cent move that drove our regional average downward last week. Perhaps a keystroke error or just a volatile price pattern, but the fact of the matter is, last week Michigan fell 33 cents and this week the same state is back up 33 cents. For this reason I do not trust the penny we added to the regional average farm diesel price.
  • Most states were unchanged. With the exception of Ohio's suspicious move upward, Indiana firmed 8 cents and Ohio gained 2 cents per gallon. Nebraska diesel fell one cent. All others were unchanged on the week.
  • Front-month heating oil futures cascaded lower through the last half of February and has since recovered mildly. I do not foresee any reason for heating oil futures to rise sharply propane price chartwithout warning.
  • According to EIA, national distillate supplies fell 4 million barrels, now just 1.5 million barrels below the same time last year at 134.5 million barrels.
  • Front-month WTI crude oil is well below $50 per barrel, closing Wednesday's session at $46.78.
  • Our trusted, proven heating oil futures/farm diesel spread analysis continues to point farm diesel lower. (see chart below)

Propane --

  • Our regional average propane price gained 3 cents per gallon on the week.
  • Ohio firmed 32 cents and Indiana added 15 cents per gallon. All other states were unchanged.
  • According to EIA, national propane stocks fell 3.620 million barrels to 69.951, now 18.2580 million barrels above the same week last year. Stocks are above the top end of the 5-year average supply range.

Fuel
2/17/20
2/24/20
Week-over Change
Current Week
Fuel
Farm Diesel
$2.34
$2.32
+1 cent
$2.33
Farm Diesel
LP
$1.47
$1.44
+3 cents
$1.47
LP

heating oil futures/farm diesel spread chart

 

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