Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Potash Corrects Lower

Posted on 08/13/2018 4:24 PM

 

  • Fertilizers were generally lower with UAN28% and potash leading declines.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index fell 0.32 points to 556.95. This compares to our 5-year average of 654.33.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Anhydrous ammonia was our sole decliner in the nitrogen segment this week.
  • UAN28% led gains in the segment firming 28 cents.
  • Urea was higher as well with UAN32% following, but up only 2 cents per short ton.
  • There is support for the idea this week that UAN solutions will pay homage to urea rather than anhydrous, which we take as a signal of near-term upside risk, although this week's rise was small enough that we believe there is still time for a late summer swoon.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices were mixed on the week with MAP falling slightly on pressure in Iowa prices.
  • DAP firmed more than a dollar on the week with no state in our survey posting a price retreat.
  • According to MosaicCo, wholesale phosphate prices were sideways to higher with DAP and MAP values at NOLA firming slightly.p and k indices chart
  • Wholesale sulphur continued to support overpriced phosphates, unchanged on the week.

Potash

  • Potash prices fell on the week with Michigan leading declines.
  • On an indexed basis, our regional average potash price is at a premium to NH3. This week's downward swing may indicate potash will work to correct lower to better reflect our regional average anhydrous ammonia price.
  • Wholesale potash ran sideways at U.S. terminals according to MosaicCo. but firmed in Brazil.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday August 10 at $4.00 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $649.78 per acre -- off $17.30 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 556.95 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 16.98 points and now stands at -91.80.
Fertilizer
7/30/18
8/6/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$510.61
$507.57
-60 cents
$506.96
Anhydrous
DAP
$498.17
$491.24
+$1.39
$492.63
DAP
MAP
$507.22
$524.15
-34 cents
$523.81
MAP
Potash
$346.97
$350.84
-$2.60
$348.24
Potash
UAN28
$257.78
$249.13
+28 cents
$249.41
UAN28
UAN32
$273.02
$268.12
+2 cents
$268.15
UAN32
Urea
$359.25
$372.36
+13 cents
$372.49
Urea
Composite
556.30
557.27
-0.32
556.95
Composite

encr chart

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