Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Nitrogen Hints at Topping

Posted on 01/09/2018 10:56 AM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mostly higher, but the uptrend appears to be slowing.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 0.27 points to 507.23 compared to last year's 496.27.
  • Expected new-crop corn revenue has been at a standstill for three consecutive weeks. Despite mild strength in some fertilizers, nutrient can still be considered a good value and we will wait for a decent setback before filling remaining spring/summer needs.

Nitrogennitrogen indices

  • Anhydrous ammonia posted the only gains in our nitrogen segment this week led by strength in Illinois.
  • Urea was unchanged as UAN solutions fell timidly.
  • Both UAN28% and UAN32% are priced below the midpoint of the NH3/urea spread.
  • This week's price action may be an early indication nitrogen prices are working on a near-term top.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices were led higher by strength in Indiana DAP although price strength was muted.
  • The DAP/MAP spread is currently at 22.04, which is at the top end of expectations.
  • Wholesale values are generally steady with previous reports.
  • Phosphate has bucked the influence of nitrogen over the past year and we cannot consider signals that nitrogen is topping to mean phosphate will top as well. However, DAP and MAP are due for a seasonal decline.pandk indices

Potash

  • Potash prices were generally higher with Missouri and Kansas leading to the upside as all other states were unchanged or slightly lower.
  • As with phosphate, potash is due for a seasonal decline.
  • as retailers refill ahead of spring demand, prices will likely reset to reflect world fundamentals, which still feature solid production and ample available supplies.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Friday, January 5 at $3.84 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $609.22 per acre -- unchanged on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 507.23 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 0.27 points and now stands at -101.99.
Fertilizer
12/29/17
1/2/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$442.28
$444.98
+$1.56
$446.55
Anhydrous
DAP
$453.91
$454.54
+$2.34
$456.88
DAP
MAP
$475.10
$477.97
+96 cents
$478.92
MAP
Potash
$331.58
$332.08
+$1.72
$333.80
Potash
UAN28
$224.48
$225.32
-$2.96
$222.35
UAN28
UAN32
$243.41
$244.80
-6 cents
$244.74
UAN32
Urea
$351.04
$350.00
Unchanged
$350.00
Urea
Composite
505.45
506.96
+0.27
507.23
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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