Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Fertilizers Turn Lower

Posted on 04/30/2018 3:44 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mostly lower on the week with NH3 leading declines.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index softened 0.54 points to 554.83. This compares to last year's 538.37.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Anhydrous ammonia led declines in the nitrogen segment and across our retail survey this week after having led gains last week.
  • UAN32% was slightly lower as well with half o the states in our 12-state survey unchanged.
  • UAN28% posted the most aggressive upside move on the week with a $1.11 price hike.
  • Urea was higher, but only by 12 cents, with strength in Indiana supporting the upward move.
  • On an indexed basis, UAN28% still holds a very thin discount to anhydrous ammonia.

Phosphate

  • DAP and MAP softened by nearly identical amounts on the week... 85 and 86 cents respectively.
  • While the downward turn is a welcome sight, this week's price action does nothing to narrow the wide spread between the two.
  • Wholesale sulphur prices are on our radar and this week we note little change. Until sulphur values fall sharply, we expect little downside potential for DAP or MAP.
  • Wholesale DAP and MAP values were mostly sideways to lower in the week end3d April 27 according to MosaicCo.p and k indices chart

Potash

  • Potash prices fell $1.27 on the week. On an indexed basis, potash remains at the bottom of our weekly survey.
  • Wholesale potash prices were sideways to lower at all locations reported by MosaicCo.
  • On an indexed basis, potash is at a 2.5% discount to anhydrous ammonia, which suggests near-term pressure for NH3.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Thursday, April 20 at $4.02 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $640.90 per acre -- lower $18.70 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 555.37 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread favors fertilizer buyers, narrowing 20.34 points and now stands at -85.53.
Fertilizer
4/16/18
4/23/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$517.04
$524.59
-$1.61
$522.98
Anhydrous
DAP
$486.64
$484.93
-85 cents
$484.08
DAP
MAP
$515.86
$517.50
-86 cents
$516.64
MAP
Potash
$346.95
$345.90
-$1.27
$344.63
Potash
UAN28
$244.74
$243.11
+$1.11
$244.22
UAN28
UAN32
$268.08
$272.64
-38 cents
$272.27
UAN32
Urea
$370.31
$370.41
+12 cents
$370.52
Urea
Composite
553.73
555.37
-0.54
554.83
Composite

nci chart

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