Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Fertilizers on Seasonal Upswing

Posted on 10/02/2018 4:18 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were higher across the board with urea and DAP leading gains.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 6.75 points to 558.59. This compares to our 5-year average of 615.41 for this week.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Urea was the upside leader in the nitrogen segment this week.
  • Anhydrous firmed by about half as much as did urea, adding roughly 6 bucks per short ton regionally.
  • UAN solutions were higher, but firmed far less than urea suggesting anhydrous ammonia still has greater influence over the segment at large.
  • If the near-term forecast for heavy rains in the Midwest is realized, the result will be a delayed harvest, possibly leading to a fertilizer supply overhang around the first of the year, which may spell opportunity to book spring supplies.

Phosphate

  • DAP led the P&K segment higher on the week with Indiana leading gains.
  • MAP was up roughly half as much as DAP with Illinois on the leading edge of this week's price hike.
  • Wholesale phosphates moved sideways to lower at all reported U.S. terminals in the week ended pandk indicesSept. 28 according MosaicCo.
  • No sign of relief in wholesale phosphate feedstock prices -- sulphur and ammonia -- both still priced at a decent premium to year ago for the reporting week. Phosphates will remain overpriced compared to the rest of the fertilizer segment until feedstock prices fall.

Potash

  • Potash followed the uptrend in the rest of the fertilizer segment adding $3.59 per short ton on the week.
  • MosaicCo's wholesale price survey reported higher wholesale potash prices at NOLA and in the Corn Belt.
  • The current upswing in retail and wholesale potash prices is likely seasonal and we see no reason potash shouldn't soften through the winter months.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday September 28 at $3.91 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $633.18 per acre -- softer $3.46 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 558.59 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 10.21 points and now stands at -74.59.
Fertilizer
9/17/18
9/24/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$492.60
$494.10
+$6.04
$500.14
Anhydrous
DAP
$512.37
$510.24
+$6.33
$516.58
DAP
MAP
$526.31
$523.93
+$3.85
$527.78
MAP
Potash
$352.09
$350.64
+$3.59
$354.23
Potash
UAN28
$238.99
$240.22
+$3.13
$243.36
UAN28
UAN32
$260.61
$262.07
+34 cents
$262.42
UAN32
Urea
$376.34
$379.21
+$10.70
$389.90
Urea
Composite
555.20
551.84
+6.75
558.59
Composite

nutrient composite index

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