Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Fertilizers Firm Amid Bullish Outlook

Posted on 05/22/2018 11:52 AM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mixed but mostly higher as farm diesel and LP firmed.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 1.10 points to 561.23. This compares to last year's 536.99.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • UAN28% led gains in the nitrogen segment this week with 32% and urea following higher.
  • Anhydrous ammonia softened with Minnesota and Michigan leading declines.
  • Recent updates from the nitrogen industry suggest tightening world nitrogen supplies will elevate prices through summer. We will watch this carefully and may get started on booking fall and spring nitrogen for the next season earlier than anticipated. I would advise preparing financially to get out in front of upside risk.
  • Domestic production may trump higher worldwide values, but since nitrogen prices have been in decline for several years, the industry will likely take advantage of the overall updraft, and allow their own production margins to swell.

Phosphate

  • DAP and MAP moved in opposite directions this week with MAP firming and DAP off $2.61 per short ton.p and k indices
  • The midpoint between DAP and MAP softened slightly but remains elevated at $502.16. The spread between the two, however, remains very strong at $32.96 this week.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale phosphate values are under pressure at all U.S. terminals surveyed and mostly sideways elsewhere around the world. The one is exception is higher MAP prices at Brazilian terminals.
  • We have been watching sulphur prices for signs of a pending price break, but that key feedstock trended sideways again on the week.

Potash

  • Potash producers chimed in with nitrogen producers this week noting upside risk in retail potash prices between now and fall.
  • Wholesale potash ticked slightly higher at NOLA on the week and ran sideways at Corn Belt locations.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Friday May 18 at $4.20 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $674.90 per acre -- higher $13.60 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 561.23 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 12.51 points and now stands at -113.67.
Fertilizer
5/7/18
5/14/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$525.75
$528.04
+$2.29
$523.81
Anhydrous
DAP
$482.60
$488.30
+$5.70
$485.68
DAP
MAP
$516.82
$517.10
+28 cents
$518.64
MAP
Potash
$348.47
$350.42
+$1.95
$350.79
Potash
UAN28
$243.49
$244.20
+71 cents
$248.04
UAN28
UAN32
$279.36
$279.17
-19 cents
$281.08
UAN32
Urea
$372.86
$373.41
+55 cents
$373.91
Urea
Composite
558.06
560.13
+1.10
561.23
Composite

nci chart

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