The NFiles | Unrelenting Upswing

Posted on 02/22/2018 1:38 PM

 

  • Anhydrous is $3.18 below year-ago pricing -- higher $3.78/st this week at $503.95.anhydrous chart
  • Urea is $5.57 above the same time last year -- higher $4.23/st this week at $366.46.
  • UAN28% is $18.43 below year-ago -- lower $4.77/st this week to $228.17.
  • UAN32% is priced $15.06 below last year -- higher $8.46/st this week at $259.72.

UAN32% led gains in the nitrogen segment with Ohio adding $25.77 as Minnesota firmed $15.84 and Michigan firmed $14.53. Three states were unchanged as Missouri posted the only declines in 32%, falling $2.23 per short ton.

Urea was led higher by Nebraska which gained $18.79 as Minnesota added $18.41. Only Wisconsin was unchanged on urea as Iowa fell $8.36, Michigan dropped $2.68 and Missouri fell $2.23.

Anhydrous ammonia firmed this week led by Nebraska, which added $37.18, North Dakota firmed $12.53 and Illinois gained $8.41. South Dakota led declines softening $19.44 and Missouri fell 54 cents per short ton.UAN chart

UAN28% was the only decliner in the nitrogen segment led by North Dakota which softened $42.78, Minnesota fell $33.67 and South Dakota dropped $23.01. Meanwhile, Illinois added $9.75 as Kansas firmed $8.57.

We pulled the trigger on our remaining nitrogen needs for spring/summer applications on Tuesday of this week. The current uptrend isn't likely to relent, and our appetite for risk is exhausted. As you well know, spring applications are coming up fast as February unwinds, and some fieldwork is already underway in the far south. that will bring in demand for all forms of fertilizer with nitrogen at the forefront, as usual.

If you have not yet covered your needs for spring nitrogen, get on the stick and get covered before the market goes any higher. We do not expect to see prices soften with any gusto until after spring fieldwork and early summer sidedress are complete.urea chart

Click here to view our advice.

December 2018 corn closed at $3.97 on Friday, February 16. That places expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) per acre based on Dec '18 futures at $632.40 with the eNCR17/NH3 spread at -128.45 with anhydrous ammonia priced at a discount to expected new-crop revenue. The spread firmed 4.72 points on the week.


Nitrogen pricing by pound of N 2/22/18

Anhydrous $N/lb

Urea $N/lb
UAN28 $N/lb
UAN32 $N/lb
Midwest Average
$0.30 1/2
$0.40 1/2
$0.40 1/2
$0.41
Year-ago
$0.30 3/4
$0.40
$0.44
$0.42 3/4

The Margins by lb/N -- UAN32% is at a 1/2 cent premium to NH3. Urea is 5 cents above anhydrous ammonia; UAN28% solution is priced 2 cents below NH3.


Nitrogen
Expected Margin
Current Price by the Pound of N
Actual Margin This Week
Outstanding Spread
Anhydrous Ammonia (NH3)
0
30 1/2 cents
0
0
Urea
NH3 +5 cents
40 1/2 cents
+10 cents
+5 cents
UAN28%
NH3 +12 cents
40 1/2 cents
+10 cents
-2 cents
UAN32%
NH3 +10 cents
41 cents
+10 1/2 cents
+1/2 cent

nitrogen indices

 

 

 

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