Fertilizers Turn Higher -- Advice Updated

Posted on 10/14/2019 4:23 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mostly higher on the week with only DAP posting a price decline.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) firmed 4.85 points to 567.98, eliminating last week's downside slide.
  • With this week's turnaround, we advise farmers complete booking fall nutrients including nitrogen, phosphates and potash.

Book remaining N,P & K needs for fall application at current prices.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • All four forms of nitrogen in our weekly price survey posted price gains.
  • Anhydrous ammonia led the charge higher with Wisconsin up $38.32 and Indiana $15.15 higher by the short ton. Only Kansas posted a softer price, down a penny on the week.
  • UAN solutions were higher with 28% up 5 bucks even and 32% $3.54 higher. Illinois led gains in 28% firming $26.94 and North Dakota up $22.07. Indiana led gains in 32% adding $29.46 and Minnesota up $27.27.
  • Urea firmed just a bit more than a full dollar per short ton led by Minnesota, up $6.56 and Indiana $6.12 higher on the week.

Previously, we had been 30% filled on fall and spring nitrogen needs. With this week's upward swing, we advise growers fill remaining nitrogen needs for fall. We will wait on the winter price slump before booking nitrogen for spring as watchers suspect lower prices during the winter offseason.

Book remaining fall nitrogen needs at current prices.

Phosphatep and k indices chart

  • Phosphate prices were mixed on the week.
  • DAP fell moderately with Iowa off a corrective $91.50 and Michigan down $4.99. Iowa's corrective move influenced our regional average higher this week. Without that downside dive, DAP would surely have been higher along with MAP.
  • MAP gained $5.08 on the week with Wisconsin up $26.01 and North Dakota up $17.86.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale DAP and MAP were sideways to mostly lower in the week ended October 11.

We had been 50% filled on fall phosphates and now advise growers book remaining needs for fall applications. While wholesale markets have eased, seasonally, phosphates are on the cusp of an annual demand push. There is still time to get ahead of a potential upside seasonal push, so get your fall phosphate needs locked in at current prices. As with nitrogen, we are content to wait for the mid-winter swoon before booking phosphates for spring application.

Book remaining fall phosphate needs at current prices.

Potash

  • Potash was higher in this week's survey with Wisconsin up $17.72 and Michigan $7.79 higher.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale potash prices were lower at U.S. terminals during the report week.
  • As anhydrous firmed moderately this week, the spread between our indexed potash figure and NH3 narrowed, but potash remains at a decent premium to anhydrous, suggesting near-term upside risk for NH3.

We have not yet booked potash for fall applications, and this week advise you do just that. Potash prices will follow seasonal demand higher and we advise you book fall needs at current prices. Once again, we are content to wait for lower prices during the offseason before booking vitamin K for spring.

Book fall potash needs at current prices.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday October 11 at $4.10 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $677.60 per acre -- higher 10.56 on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 567.98 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 5.71 points and now stands at -109.62.
Fertilizer
9/30/19
10/7/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$512.17
$504.36
+$9.82
$514.18
Anhydrous
DAP
$457.45
$463.66
-$4.89
$458.77
DAP
MAP
$455.14
$450.96
+$5.08
$456.04
MAP
Potash
$374.11
$370.52
+$2.70
$373.22
Potash
UAN28
$258.65
$254.06
+$5.00
$259.06
UAN28
UAN32
$283.03
$280.91
+$3.54
$284.45
UAN32
Urea
$399.68
$397.47
+$1.07
$398.54
Urea
Composite
567.18
563.13
+4.85
567.98
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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