USDA Slashes Its Crop and Carryover Estimates for Corn and Cotton

Posted on Tue, 01/12/2021 - 11:12

Today’s report defines final U.S. production for 2020. Of note, USDA’s annual production update shows there are still 494,000 soybean acres left to be harvested along with 330,000 MT of corn left to be harvested when surveys were completed Nov. 28 through Dec. 17.

Also of note, USDA revised its Sept. 1 corn stocks roughly 76 million bu. lower versus what was initially reported, dropping stocks to 1.919 billion bu. for the quarter. That contributed to the much lower than expect Dec. 1 corn stocks projection. Dec. 1 soybean and corn stocks were more in line with expectations.

The following expectations are based on survey-work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).

 

2020 U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres

USDA

14.182

172.0

82.467

Average est.

14.470

175.3

82.543

USDA November

14.507

175.8

82.527

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres

USDA

4.135

50.2

82.318

Average est.

4.158

50.5

82.305

USDA November

4.170

50.7

82.289

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested acres

USDA

14.953

825

8.702

Average est.

15.660

NA

NA

USDA December

15.949

850

9.005

 

 

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2020-21

USDA

1.552

Average est.

1.599

USDA December

1.702

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2020-21

USDA

140

Average est.

139

USDA December

175

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2020-21

USDA

836

Average est.

859

USDA December

862

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

USDA

4.60

Average est.

5.39

USDA December

5.70

 

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21

USDA

283.83

World less China

92.16

Avg. est.

283.53

USDA December

288.96

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21

USDA

84.31

World less China

55.72

Average est.

82.66

USDA December

85.64

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21

USDA

313.19

World less China

154.25

Average est.

315.37

USDA December

316.50

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

USDA

96.32

World less China

60.04

Average est.

97.51

USDA December

97.52

 

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21
January (December)

U.S.

360.25 (368.49)

Argentina

47.50 (49.00)

Brazil

109.00 (110.00)

South Africa

16.00 (16.00)

Russia

14.00 (14.00)

Ukraine

29.50 (29.50)

China

260.67 (260.00)

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21
January (December)

U.S.

112.55 (113.50)

Argentina

48.00 (50.00)

Brazil

133.00 (133.00)

Paraguay

10.25 (10.25)

China

19.60 (17.50)

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21
January (December)

U.S.

49.69 (49.69)

Argentina

17.50 (18.00)

Australia

30.00 (30.00)

Canada

35.18 (35.18)

EU + UK

135.80 (135.80)

Russia

85.30 (84.00)

Ukraine

25.50 (25.50)

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21
January (December)

U.S.

14.95 (15.95)

Australia

2.50 (2.40)

Brazil

12.00 (12.00)

India

29.50 (29.50)

China

27.50 (27.50)

 

 

Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

Corn – billion bu.

USDA, Dec. 1, 2020

11.322

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020

11.951

USDA Sept. 1, 2020

1.919

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

11.327

 

Soybeans – billion bu.

USDA, Dec. 1, 2020

2.933

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020

2.920

USDA Sept. 1, 2020

0.525

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

3.252

 

Wheat – billion bu.

USDA, Dec. 1, 2020

1.674

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020

1.695

USDA Sept. 1, 2020

2.158

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

1.841