Today’s report defines final U.S. production for 2020. Of note, USDA’s annual production update shows there are still 494,000 soybean acres left to be harvested along with 330,000 MT of corn left to be harvested when surveys were completed Nov. 28 through Dec. 17.
Also of note, USDA revised its Sept. 1 corn stocks roughly 76 million bu. lower versus what was initially reported, dropping stocks to 1.919 billion bu. for the quarter. That contributed to the much lower than expect Dec. 1 corn stocks projection. Dec. 1 soybean and corn stocks were more in line with expectations.
The following expectations are based on survey-work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).
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2020 U.S. Production |
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Corn |
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Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres |
|
|
USDA |
14.182 |
172.0 |
82.467 |
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Average est. |
14.470 |
175.3 |
82.543 |
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USDA November |
14.507 |
175.8 |
82.527 |
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Soybeans |
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Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres |
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USDA |
4.135 |
50.2 |
82.318 |
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Average est. |
4.158 |
50.5 |
82.305 |
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USDA November |
4.170 |
50.7 |
82.289 |
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Cotton |
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Production |
Yield |
Harvested acres |
|
|
USDA |
14.953 |
825 |
8.702 |
|
Average est. |
15.660 |
NA |
NA |
|
USDA December |
15.949 |
850 |
9.005 |
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Expectations for |
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Corn – billion bushels |
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|
2020-21 |
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|
USDA |
1.552 |
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Average est. |
1.599 |
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USDA December |
1.702 |
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Soybeans – million bushels |
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|
2020-21 |
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|
USDA |
140 |
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Average est. |
139 |
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USDA December |
175 |
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Wheat – million bushels |
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|
2020-21 |
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|
USDA |
836 |
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Average est. |
859 |
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USDA December |
862 |
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Cotton – million bales |
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2020-21 |
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|
USDA |
4.60 |
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Average est. |
5.39 |
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USDA December |
5.70 |
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Global Carryover |
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Corn – MMT |
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2020-21 |
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USDA |
283.83 |
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World less China |
92.16 |
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Avg. est. |
283.53 |
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USDA December |
288.96 |
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Soybeans – MMT |
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|
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2020-21 |
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USDA |
84.31 |
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World less China |
55.72 |
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Average est. |
82.66 |
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USDA December |
85.64 |
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Wheat – MMT |
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|
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2020-21 |
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USDA |
313.19 |
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World less China |
154.25 |
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Average est. |
315.37 |
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USDA December |
316.50 |
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Cotton – million bales |
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|
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2020-21 |
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USDA |
96.32 |
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World less China |
60.04 |
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Average est. |
97.51 |
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USDA December |
97.52 |
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Corn – MMT |
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2020-21 |
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U.S. |
360.25 (368.49) |
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Argentina |
47.50 (49.00) |
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Brazil |
109.00 (110.00) |
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South Africa |
16.00 (16.00) |
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Russia |
14.00 (14.00) |
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Ukraine |
29.50 (29.50) |
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China |
260.67 (260.00) |
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Soybeans – MMT |
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|
|
2020-21 |
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U.S. |
112.55 (113.50) |
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Argentina |
48.00 (50.00) |
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Brazil |
133.00 (133.00) |
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Paraguay |
10.25 (10.25) |
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China |
19.60 (17.50) |
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Wheat – MMT |
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|
2020-21 |
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U.S. |
49.69 (49.69) |
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Argentina |
17.50 (18.00) |
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Australia |
30.00 (30.00) |
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Canada |
35.18 (35.18) |
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EU + UK |
135.80 (135.80) |
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Russia |
85.30 (84.00) |
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Ukraine |
25.50 (25.50) |
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Cotton – million bales |
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|
|
2020-21 |
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U.S. |
14.95 (15.95) |
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Australia |
2.50 (2.40) |
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Brazil |
12.00 (12.00) |
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India |
29.50 (29.50) |
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China |
27.50 (27.50) |
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Quarterly Grain Stocks Report |
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|
Corn – billion bu. |
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|
USDA, Dec. 1, 2020 |
11.322 |
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Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020 |
11.951 |
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USDA Sept. 1, 2020 |
1.919 |
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USDA Dec. 1, 2019 |
11.327 |
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Soybeans – billion bu. |
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|
USDA, Dec. 1, 2020 |
2.933 |
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Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020 |
2.920 |
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USDA Sept. 1, 2020 |
0.525 |
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USDA Dec. 1, 2019 |
3.252 |
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Wheat – billion bu. |
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USDA, Dec. 1, 2020 |
1.674 |
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Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020 |
1.695 |
|
USDA Sept. 1, 2020 |
2.158 |
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USDA Dec. 1, 2019 |
1.841 |
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