Traders Expect Lower Corn Carryover, But Uncertain How Aggressive the Cut Will Be

Posted on Wed, 04/07/2021 - 15:01

Analysts fully anticipate USDA will cut its estimate of old-crop corn carryover, but there’s a fair amount of uncertainty as to how much. We expect upward revisions to exports, feed/residual use and ethanol grind to drop carryover more in the 1.2 billion bu. vicinity. There’s more uncertainty regarding the direction USDA will go with its soybean and wheat carryover projections, with some analysts polled by Reuters calling for month-over-month cuts and others calling for increases. The net result is that the average trade guess points to little change to soybean or wheat carryover vs. March.

Cotton carryover is expected to slip 90,000 bales from March, with analysts polled by Bloomberg expecting slight increases to USDA’s export forecast and a modest cut to its production estimate.

The reports will be released at 11:00 a.m. CT.

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2020-21

Average est.

1.396

Range

1.200-1.502

USDA March

1.502

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2020-21

Average est.

119

Range

110-135

USDA March

120

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2020-21

Average est.

847

Range

827-872

USDA March

836

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

Average est.

4.11

Range

3.90-4.30

USDA March

4.20

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21

Average est.

284.82

Range

282.41-287.00

USDA March

287.67

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21

Average est.

83.52

Range

82.50-85.00

USDA March

83.74

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21

Average est.

301.59

Range

297.77-303.00

USDA March

301.19

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

Average est.

94.43

Range

93.70-95.23

USDA March

94.59

 

Brazilian Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

134.03

Range

132.00-137.00

USDA March

134.00

 

Corn – MMT

Average est.

108.29

Range

105.06-110.00

USDA March

109.00

 

Argentine
Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

46.63

Range

44.50-47.50

USDA March

47.50

 

Corn – MMT

Average est.

46.63

Range

45.00-47.50

USDA March

47.50