Soybean Export Sales Top 2.6 MMT, Shattering Expectations

Posted on Fri, 10/16/2020 - 07:53

Corn sales were near the lower end of expectations, while wheat sales were near the upper end of pre-report guesses. China accounted for nearly 1.6 MMT of the soybean purchases, with Mexico as the next largest buyer. Soybean exports were also impressive at nearly 2.4 MMT. Cotton sales were fairly light, but China was a lead buyer and destination for the fiber. Beef and pork sales were down notably from recent strong showings.

 

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report

Week Ended Oct. 8, 2020

Corn

Actual Sales (in MT)

2020-21: 655,200

Expectations (in MT)

2020-21: 600,000-1,200,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 655,200 MT for 2020-21 were down 47% from the previous week and 63% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (203,800 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), Colombia (184,200 MT, including 33,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,800 MT), Japan (175,800 MT, including 70,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,100 MT), China (140,700 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from South Korea and decreases of 3,200 MT), and Costa Rica (47,800 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (152,100 MT) and South Korea (7,700 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 815,100 MT were down 13% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (306,500 MT), China (269,700 MT), South Korea (58,000 MT), Honduras (49,100 MT), and Colombia (43,200 MT).  

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 156% ahead of year ago a few weeks into the marketing year, which compares to 159% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2020-21 at 2.325 billion bu., up 30.7% from the previous marketing year.

Wheat

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 599,700
2020-21: 528,500
2021-22: 71,200

Expectations (in MT)

2020-21: 200,000-600,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 528,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020-21 were unchanged from the previous week, but up 23% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (229,000 MT, including decreases of 11,000 MT), Japan (62,200 MT), China (57,400 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,000 MT), Thailand (55,000 MT), and unknown destinations (47,500 MT), were offset by reductions for the Philippines (28,400 MT) and Brazil (1,700 MT).  For 2021/2022, nets sales of 71,200 MT were for Brazil (60,000 MT) and Mexico (11,200 MT). 

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 506,700 MT were down 28% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (182,400 MT), Nigeria (96,900 MT), Brazil (58,300 MT), the Philippines (54,300 MT), and Mexico (36,200 MT).   

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 9% ahead of year-ago compared with 8% ahead of year-ago the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2020-21 at 975 million bu., up 1.0% from the previous marketing year.

Soybeans

Actual Sales (in MT)

2020-21: 2,631,300

Expectations (in MT)

2020-21: 1,500,000-2,200,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 2,631,300 MT for 2020-21 were up 18% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (1,592,500 MT, including 529,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, 1,500 MT switched from Taiwan, and decreases of 95,200 MT), Mexico (210,400 MT, including decreases of 3,700 MT), Germany (115,700 MT), Indonesia (110,800 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Thailand (101,200 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (37,700 MT). 

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 2,384,000 MT were down 8% from the previous week, but up 21% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,743,300 MT), Mexico (147,400 MT), Germany (115,700 MT), Indonesia (97,200 MT), and the Netherlands (54,600 MT).  

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 142% ahead of year-ago early in the marketing year, which compares to 151% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2020-21 at 2.200 billion bu., up 31.3% from year-ago.

Soymeal

Actual Sales (in MT)

2020-21: 00

Expectations

2020-21: 100,000-350,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 152,200 MT for 2020-21, primarily for Ecuador (37,200 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (32,300 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Morocco (31,200 MT), Colombia (25,500 MT), and Venezuela (20,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (34,600 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 227,100 MT were primarily to the Philippines (100,100 MT), Ecuador (32,200 MT), Morocco (26,200 MT), Canada (24,400 MT), and Mexico (23,400 MT).  

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are steady with year go early in the marketing year.  USDA projects exports in 2020-21 will slip 2.9% from the previous marketing year.

Soyoil

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 1,600
2020-21: 1,400
2021-22: 200

Expectations

2020-21: 0-30,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 1,400 MT for 2020-21 primarily for Canada (1,800 MT) and Mexico (200 MT), were offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (500 MT), Guatemala (100 MT), and South Korea (100 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 200 MT were for Canada.

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 18,300 MT were primarily to Venezuela (5,700 MT), Colombia (4,800 MT), Jamaica (3,000 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT), and Canada (2,100 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 11% behind year-ago early in the 2020-21 marketing year. USDA projects exports will fall 7.1% this season.

Cotton

Actual Sales (in RB)

Combined: 112,100
2020-21: 98,900
2021-22: 13,200

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 98,900 RB for 2020-21 were down 45% from the previous week and 61% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Pakistan (36,500 RB, including 500 RB switched from Indonesia), China (20,000 RB, including decreases of 13,200 RB), Guatemala (14,900 RB), Vietnam (13,800 RB), and Turkey (10,400 RB), were offset by reductions for Bangladesh (4,000 RB) and Japan (1,300 RB).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 13,200 RB were for China.

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 192,600 RB were up 35% from the previous week, but down 7% from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China (59,500 RB), Vietnam (51,200 RB), Mexico (20,400 RB), Pakistan (13,000 RB), and Turkey (9,700 RB). 

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 10% behind year-ago early in the 2020-21 marketing year, which compares to 9% behind last week. USDA forecasts total cotton exports will slide 6.0% to 14.6 million bales this marketing year.

Beef

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 13,800
2020: 13,400
2021: 400

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 13,400 MT reported for 2020 were down 35% from the previous week and 31% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (3,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Taiwan (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 400 MT were reported for Japan (200 MT), Taiwan (100 MT), and Chile (100 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 16,200 MT were down 5% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,200 MT), South Korea (3,800 MT), Hong Kong (1,500 MT), China (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,500 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Sales totaled 22,900 MT last week. USDA projects 2020 exports will drop 4.3% from year-ago levels.

Pork

Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 28,400
2020: 26,800
2021: 1,600

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 26,800 MT reported for 2020 were down 56% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (11,900 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), China (5,200 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), Japan (4,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Canada (1,100 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and Colombia (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 1,600 MT were primarily for Mexico (700 MT), Chile (600 MT), and Australia (300 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 36,000 MT were down 2% from the previous week, but up 8% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,700 MT), China (10,700 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), Canada (2,200 MT), and South Korea (1,800 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Sales totaled 60,700 MT last week. USDA projects exports in 2020 will surge 16.2% from year-ago.