Ahead of the Open | March 29, 2023

Ahead of the Open
Ahead of the Open
(Pro Farmer)

GRAIN CALLS

Corn: 2 to 5 cents higher.

Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.

Wheat: SRW 15 to 20 cents higher; HRW 10 to 15 cents higher; HRS 10 to 14 cents higher.


GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat futures were supported overnight by news Cargill will cease exporting Russian grain. Corn and soybeans followed to the upside. Corn should find additional support from another daily old-crop corn sale. Front-month crude oil futures are nearly $1 higher this morning, while the U.S. dollar index is more than 100 points higher.

USDA announced another daily old-crop corn sale, this time 204,000 MT to China. This marked the seventh straight day with an old-crop corn sale and 11 of the last 12 days. During that span, there have been 3.205 MMT of daily corn sales – all to China aside from 112,800 MT to unknown destinations. 

Global commodities trader Cargill Inc. will stop exporting Russian grain at the beginning of 2023-24 on July 1, the country’s ag ministry said. “The cessation of its export activities on the Russian market will not affect the volume of domestic grain shipments abroad. The company’s grain export assets will continue to operate regardless of who manages them,” the ag ministry told Reuters. Cargill will likely export around 2.2 MMT of Russian grain in 2022-23, accounting for around 4% of the country’s total grain exports. Focus now is on whether the other major global grain exporting companies follow suit and vacate the Russian market.

Poland wants the European Union to use all tools at its disposal to limit the amount of Ukrainian grain entering the bloc's market, the prime minister said on Wednesday. “We demand the use of all regulatory instruments – quotas, tariffs, which will limit or block the import of Ukrainian grain into Poland,” Mateusz Morawiecki said.

World Weather Inc. says the southwestern Plains will remain dry over the next 10 days, maintaining stress on the greening up HRW wheat crop.

The Red River valley in the Northern Plains will experience two new storm systems over the coming week that will add more moisture to the region’s flood potential. World Weather says the first storm will come Thursday into Saturday and the second will be during middle of next week.

Argentina will see improved weather, with the best rainfall chances next week. Brazil weather will be favorable for safrinha corn development.
 

CORN: May corn futures continued to strengthen technically, pushing above the 40-day moving average during overnight trade. The 50-day average near $6.55 1/2 is next resistance, followed by the 100-day average at $6.58 3/4. The upside breakout from the inverted head-and-shoulders formation earlier this week projects the contract to the $6.85 area. Near-term support starts at the 5-day moving average at $6.44 1/2.

SOYBEANS: May soybean futures initially pulled back during overnight trade but finished the session higher and near the highs, building off the “V” bottom reversal that started last Friday. Near-term resistance is in the $14.72 to $14.77 3/4 range, with the 20-day moving average around $14.84. The 10-day moving average at $14.59 3/4 is near-term support.

WHEAT: May SRW wheat futures posted an upside breakout from the short-term consolidation range overnight. Near-term resistance is the 40-day moving average near $7.26 1/2 and then the 50-day average at $7.31 1/2. Previous resistance at $7.12 1/2 is initial support.  

 

LIVESTOCK CALLS

CATTLE: Choppy/higher.

HOGS: Choppy/lower.

CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mixed to mostly firmer tone. Traders have just a slight premium to last week’s cash market built into April live cattle futures, but they will likely remain cautious buyers until there’s a better sense of cash cattle trade, which isn’t likely until late in the week. Cash sources expect the cash market to strengthen this week, though it’s unlikely there will be any serious trade until Thursday or Friday. Wholesale beef prices firmed on Wednesday with Choice up 27 cents and Select 64 cents higher. Movement totaled 103 loads.

HOGS: Lean hog futures are likely to open with a mixed to mostly weaker tone this morning amid pressure from weakening cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is down another 32 cents to $76.25 (as of March 27), marking the seventh consecutive daily decline. The index is down $3.76 during that span. The pork cutout value dropped $1.22 yesterday to $80.00 and is down $8.80 over the past two weeks. Cash fundamentals likely need to stabilize before buyers regain their confidence in lean hog futures.

 

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