Waiting on Biden to Announce His Vice-Presidential Candidate

Posted on 08/10/2020 4:30 AM

Aid negotiators looking for another chance as Trump issues executive orders


Washington Focus


A collapse in new aid talks resulted in President Trump issuing four executive orders (link) on Saturday, but there is still hope from both sides that negotiations could be resurrected. On the political front, presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is expected to unveil his selection for vice president this week via a text message. USDA on Wednesday releases the first survey-based estimates for corn and soybeans and some other major crops.


Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday launches “Farmers and Ranchers for Trump” at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines. The vice president also is scheduled to attend the Iowa Republican state dinner. With President Trump not attending at least at this stage, ethanol supporters are concerned this is not good news relative to waivers relative to the Renewable Fuel Standard.


Hearings and Events This Week


With lawmakers out subject to recall if there is renewed hope for new aid negotiations, hearings and other events are mostly from associations and focus on several topics, including foreign policy, trade and dietary guidelines.


Monday, Aug. 10

     • U.S. foreign policy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) holds a discussion via webcast on "America in the World: A History of US Diplomacy and Foreign Policy."

Tuesday, Aug. 11

     • U.S. court of Appeals in Washington reconsiders a ruling to dismiss a criminal case against former national security adviser Michael Flynn.
     • Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly delivers remarks.

     • Dietary guidelines. USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service meeting by webcast to receive oral comments on the 2020 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee's Draft Advisory Report.

     • Korea WTO candidate. Washington International Trade Association (WITA) webinar with Republic of Korea Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee, candidate for director general of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

     • China and developing countries. Center for Global Development (CGD) webinar on "Debates in Development: Is China Good for Developing Countries?"

     • Trade issues. American Association of Exporters and Importers (AAEI) 99th annual virtual Conference and Expo with the theme "The Many Faces of Trade: Braving a Transforming World,” including a session on "What is the Future of Trade? Multilateral or Bilateral?"

     • Dalai Lama. United States Institute of Peace webinar on "Conflict, Covid and Compassion," with the Dalai Lama and Generation Change fellows.

     • 2020 elections. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on "The 2020 Election: The Youth Vote."

     • Autonomous vehicles. Axios online discussion on "The Future of Autonomous Vehicles."

     • Global cooperation. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) online discussion on "global cooperation during Covid-19 and the geopolitical and humanitarian impacts of the pandemic."

Wednesday, Aug. 12

     • Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan to deliver remarks.

     • Hong Kong. Council on Foreign Relations webcast on "Hong Kong Update - Autonomy and National Security."

     • LNG. United States Energy Association virtual discussion on "Innovations in LNG (liquid natural gas) Contracting."

     • South China Sea. Center for Strategic and International Studies 10th annual South China Sea Conference via webcast focusing on "legal issues in the South China Sea, including pathways for dispute resolution and management."

     • U.S./North Korea. Heritage Foundation webinar on "What Is the Potential for North Korea Provocation or a US Summit?"

     • Migration. RAND Corporation webinar on "Mass Migration and Covid-19," as part of the series on "Trends in Mass Migration."

     • Trade issues. American Association of Exporters and Importers 99th annual virtual Conference and Expo.

     • Gulf of Mexico environment. National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS) webcast on "Long-Term Environmental Trends in the Gulf of Mexico."

     • Economy and climate. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) webinar on "Tackling Twin Crises: A Path Toward Economic Recovery and Climate Mitigation."

     • Digital infrastructure. Government Executive Media Group webcast on "The Ins and Outs of State and Local Digital Infrastructure," part of the Cybersmart 2020 series on state and local government efforts to protect digital infrastructure.

     • Supreme Court. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies virtual discussion on "Reviewing The Supreme Court's 2019/20 Term: A Panel Discussion."

     • China espionage. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) webcast on Countering Chinese Espionage."

Thursday, Aug. 13

     • Fresh produce hearing. U.S. Trade Representative hearing by teleconference on "Trade Distorting Policies That May Be Affecting Seasonal and Perishable Products in US Commerce," focusing on fresh fruits and vegetables.

     • USDA and food supply chain. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies Tyler Lawyers Chapter discussion via webinar on USDA’s response to keep the food supply chain operating during the pandemic, as well as implications of the Supreme Court decision in U.S. Forest Service vs. Cowpasture River Preservation Association for future large infrastructure projects.

     • CPSC and trade. American Association of Exporters and Importers 99th annual virtual Conference and Expo, including a session on "CPSC's import surveillance mission and notification messaging."

     • U.S. foreign policy. German Marshall Fund of the United States discussion via webcast on "America in the World: A History of US Diplomacy and Foreign Policy."

     • Farm Credit Administration teleconference including the Annual Report on Farm Credit System's Young, Beginning, and Small Farmer Mission Performance.

     • North and South Korea. Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast on North Korea and inter-Korean relations.

     • Carbon capture. Resources for the Future (RFF) holds a webinar on "The Future of Carbon Capture and Sequestration."

     • U.S. exports. The Hill webinar on "Breaking Through: U.S. Businesses Powered by Global Exports."

     • Political and economic crises. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and FixUs virtual discussion on "the status of American democracy, the effects of the current health and economic crises on our political system and institutions and what solutions could be adopted to strengthen our system of government."

     • November election impacts of primaries. CQ Roll Call and Fiscal Note webinar on "what the 2020 primaries told us about where the voters stand, and what it will mean for November."
     • Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday launches “Farmers and Ranchers for Trump” at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines. The vice president also is scheduled to attend the Iowa Republican state dinner.

With President Trump not attending at least at this stage, ethanol supporters are concerned this is not good news relative to waivers relative to the Renewable Fuel Standard.

Friday, Aug. 14

     • Pelosi remarks. League of United Latin American Citizens virtual summit with the theme, "All for One and One for All: United in Action to Transform America," with remarks from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

     • Hurricanes and Covid-19. Bipartisan Policy Center webinar on "Covid-19's Impact on Hurricane Evacuation and Sheltering."


Economic Reports for the Week


Economic data feature several inflation readings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the Producer Price Index for July on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index for July on Wednesday, and import and export prices on Thursday.


Monday, Aug. 10

     • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June. Consensus estimate is for 5.1 million job openings on the last business day of June, down from 5.4 million in May.
     • Federal Reserve: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks.
     • China’s consumer price index is expected to climb slightly as a recent rise of pork prices and the flooding in southern China have raised concerns about food inflation. Industrial deflation probably eased, reflecting rising demand for products such as steel and cement amid government stimulus and a rise in construction activities.

Tuesday, Aug. 11

     • National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for July. Economists forecast a 100.4 reading, just about even with June’s data.
     • BLS releases the Producer Price Index for July. The PPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month after falling 0.2% in June. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen edging up 0.1%, compared with a 0.3% decline previously.
     • Federal Reserve: President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly speaks.

Wednesday, Aug. 12

     • MBA Mortgage Applications.
     • BLS reports Consumer Price Index data for July. The consensus estimate is for the CPI to rise 0.7% year over year, and for the core CPI to jump 1.1%. This compares to gains of 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively, in June.
     • Treasury Department releases the monthly budget statement for July. Through the first nine months of fiscal 2020, which ends in September, the U.S. has run up a deficit of more than $2.7 trillion, far surpassing the previous record deficit of $1.4 trillion for all of fiscal 2009. If Congress passes another stimulus package, the final shortfall for 2020 could well eclipse $4 trillion.
     • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations.
     • Federal Reserve: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks; Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks.
     • The U.K. suffered a major hit from the coronavirus pandemic and government efforts to contain it. Economists estimate the economy shrank by one-fifth in the second quarter, a much steeper decline than the 12% fall in the neighboring eurozone or the 9.5% decline in the U.S.

Thursday, Aug. 13

     • Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Aug. 8. Jobless claims have now surpassed one million for 20 consecutive weeks.
     • Import and Export Prices.
     • Fed Balance Sheet
     • Money Supply

Friday, Aug. 14

     • University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for August. Expectations are for a 72 reading, roughly even with July’s figure, and well below this year’s peak of 101 set in February.
     • Census Bureau reports retail sales data for July. Economists forecast a 2%.
monthly rise in retail sales; excluding autos, the expected gain is 1.5%. This compares with jumps of 7.5% and 7.3%, respectively, in June.
     • BLS reports productivity and labor costs for the second quarter. Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9%, while labor costs are seen jumping 4%.
     • Industrial Production.
     • Business Inventories.
     • China provides economic data on July industrial production and retail sales. Economists are looking for signs of a rebound.


Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events


Traders will focus on Wednesday's USDA Crop Production Report, the first survey-based estimates of this year's corn and soybean crops. The WASDE report will be dissected for the latest on demand and carryover projections for U.S. crops, and supply and demand forecasts for international crops.


Monday, Aug. 10


     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • Feedgrains Database
  • Wheat data
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • ISO webinar on Covid-19/macro outlook for sugar
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board data on July end-stockpiles, production, exports
  • Malaysia palm oil export data for Aug. 1-10
  • Brazil Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • Holiday: Japan, Singapore

Tuesday, Aug. 11


     Ag reports and events:

  • Brazil Conab releases area, production and yield data for corn, soybeans
  • Earnings: Wilmar

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • EIA monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

Wednesday, Aug. 12


     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Cotton Ginnings
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Market and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • Season Average Price Forecasts
  • China CASDE monthly crop supply and demand report
  • Holiday: Thailand

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Thursday, Aug. 13


     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Feedgrains Database
  • Wheat data
  • Turkey Hatchery
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Earnings: JBS

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • IEA Oil Market Report

Friday, Aug. 14


     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • Dairy Monthly Tables & Dairy Quarterly Data
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook
  • Oil Crops Outlook
  • Feed Outlook
  • Rice Outlook
  • Wheat Outlook
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
  • Earnings: Golden Agri-Resources

     Energy reports and events:


  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts



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