USDA's WASDE on Tuesday is Major Ag Event This Week

Posted on 05/11/2020 4:54 AM

Senate in, House on recess, but Democrats continue to discuss next Covid-19 aid package


Washington Focus


USDA's Tuesday WASDE is the ag-sector highlight. China’s agriculture outlook committee will also publish its monthly supply and demand report. On the trade policy front, we could get some additional word regarding the Phase 1 deal assessment from the Trump administration — the president made some negative comments on the topic over the weekend. On the legislative front, the Senate is in and the House is on recess. However, House Democrats continue to discuss the next Covid-19 relief package (CARES 2/Phase 4), but at this stage it is a more partisan package than prior measures. On the economic front, reports on consumer prices, industrial production and retail sales will be the highlights. Meanwhile, word should break this week on the details of USDA's rule implementing the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP).



Hearings and Events This Week


The Senate this week will hold several committee hearings related to the pandemic, focusing on broadband access, liability protections and oversight. Anthony Fauci, a member of Trump’s task force and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, will testify on Tuesday. However, CDC Director Robert Redfield and Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, on Saturday evening disclosed plans to isolate over the next two weeks after ‘low-risk’ contact with an infected person. Also, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn began two weeks of self-quarantine after coming in contact with Vice President Mike Pence's press secretary Katie Miller, who tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday. All three are scheduled to testify at a Tuesday Senate hearing. Senate Health Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) said the White House will allow Redfield and Hahn to testify by videoconference. The statement was issued before Fauci's quarantine was announced.



     President Trump is set to go to Philadelphia late this week. Two governors are slated to come to meet with the president at the White House: North Dakota Republican Gov. Doug Burgum Colorado Democratic Gov. Jared Polis.


Monday, May 11


     — Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans scheduled to speak.

     — 2020 elections. Washington Post Live discussion webcast with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on "the state of American politics and the 2020 election process, his efforts to respond to the coronavirus spread and what he will do to help former Vice President Joe Biden get elected."

     — Iran nuclear deal. The Atlantic Council webinar on "United States' Withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal Two Years On: Assessing Policy Outcomes of 'Maximum Pressure' and a Look Ahead."

     — U.S. foreign policy. Hudson Institute webcast on "Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs: Discussing the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy and National Security."

     — Consumer protections & Covid-19. House Energy and Commerce Consumer Protection and Commerce Subcommittee forum via teleconference with Federal Trade Commission Chairman Joseph Simons about "critical consumer protection issues related to the Covid-19 pandemic."

     — Oil & gas emissions. Environmental Protection Agency meeting by teleconference of the Chartered Science Advisory Board to discuss workgroup reports on Oil and Natural Gas Sector Emissions Standards and Proposed Lead and Copper Rule Revisions.

     — FCC. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a conference call briefing on "The Restoring Internet Freedom Order on Remand: Next Steps for the Federal Communications Commission."

     — U.S. & French relations. Meridian International Center briefing via webcast on current relations between France and the United States amidst the Covid-19 global health crisis.


Tuesday, May 12


     — Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Randal Quarles to testify before the Senate Banking Committee; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester to speak.

     — Food summit. Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) food summit via webcast including former USDA Secretaries Dan Glickman and Ann Veneman.
     — Global trade. National Press Foundation webinar, “Global Trade: A Pandemic Primer: Where’s Our Food? Supply Chains and Food Insecurity.”

     — Covid-19 liability. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on "Examining Liability During the Covid-19 Pandemic."

     — WTO & Covid-19. Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) discussion via webcast on "The WTO (World Trade Organization) After Covid-19: The View from China."

     — Africa & Covid-19. Center for Global Development (CGD) discussion via webcast on "Supporting Africa in the Fight Against Covid-19 and Beyond."

     — Covid-19 & returning to work, school. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on "Covid-19: Safely Getting Back to Work and Back to School." Dr. Anthony Fauci & FDA Commissioner Stephan Hahn to testify.

     — Bank regulator oversight. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on "Oversight of Financial Regulators,” with Fed Governor Randal Quarles.
     — Borlaug CAST Communication winner. Council for Agricultural Science and Technology webinar to announce the 2020 Borlaug CAST Communication Award winner.
     — Covid-19. Food Institute webinar: “Covid-19: Regulatory Responses Affecting the Food & Agriculture Sector.”

     — Immigration. German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) discussion via webinar on "Trump's Migration Politics," part of the "Transatlantic Tuesdays" series.

     — Covid-19 impacts. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) briefing via webinar on "Impacts and consequences of the coronavirus pandemic: OECD's data, analysis and recommendations."

     — EU green deal. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) webcast on "A Green Recovery: Which World Do We Want After Covid-19?"

     — Biodiversity. Woodrow Wilson Center (WWC) discussion via webcast on "Cross-Sectoral Approaches to Biodiversity Conservation: Governance, Natural Resource Management, and 'Thinking and Working Politically."

     — Business in crisis. New America discussion via webcast on "Business in a Time of Crisis."

     — Covid-19 & U.S./China relations. Institute of World Politics (IWP) holds a webinar on "How Might the Coronavirus Pandemic Influence U.S./China Relations?"


Wednesday, May 13


     — Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak via webcast to the Peterson Institute for International Economics on current economic issues.

     — Broadband & Covid-19. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) webcast on "Understanding the Crucial Role of Standards for American Prosperity.".

     — Cybersecurity. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on "The State of Broadband Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic."

     — Europe & Covid-19. German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) discussion via webcast on "Europe's Response to the Coronavirus."

     — Energy technology. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) discussion via webinar on "Mind the Gap: A Design for a New Energy Technology Commercialization Foundation."

     — Wind energy. American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) discussion via webinar on "The Grand Challenges in the Science of Wind Energy."

     — China & nuclear weapons. Institute of World Politics (IWP) webinar on "The Role of Nuclear Weapons in China's Strategy."


Thursday, May 14


     — Federal Reserve. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari scheduled to speak.

     — Farm Credit issues. Farm Credit Administration meeting by teleconference on several issues including the Paycheck Protection Program.

     — Covid-19 & South Asia. Woodrow Wilson Center's (WWC) Asia Program webcast on "Economic Implications of Covid-19 for South Asia."

     — Turkey & energy. Atlantic Council webinar on "Impact of Covid-19 on the Global Energy Sector and Reflections on Turkey."

     — Covid-19 response. House Energy & Commerce Health hearing on "Protecting Scientific Integrity in the Covid-19 Response."

     — Covid-19 treatments. Washington International Trade Association (WITA) webinar on "Covid-19 and Trade: The Path Toward a Cure — Drug Development and BioPharmaceutical Supply Chain."

     — 5G. Business Council for International Understanding (BCIU) discussion via webcast on "5G Development and Deployment."

     — State fiscal health. Heritage Foundation webinar on "State Fiscal Health in the Midst of the Crisis."


Friday, May 15


     — U.S. export financing. International Trade Administration meeting by teleconference of the Trade Finance Advisory Council to discuss possible recommendations on policies and programs that can increase awareness of, and expand access to, export financing resources for U.S. exporters.

     — Taxes. National Tax Association 50th annual spring symposium via webcast with the theme "New Thinking on Enduring Questions.”

     — Fed response to Covid-19. Heritage Foundation webinar on "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: The Federal Reserve's Attempt to Contain Covid-19 Economic Damage."


Economic Reports for the Week



     — National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for May. Economists forecast a 86.5 reading, down from March’s 96.4 figure. The 8.1-point drop in March was the steepest monthly decline in the survey’s history and ended a streak of 39 months above a 100 reading for the index.
     — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index for April. Consensus estimates are for a 0.4% year-over-year uptick, after a 1.5% gain in March. The core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is expected to rise 1.7% compared with a 2.1% jump in March.
     — China’s consumer inflation is expected to continue easing in April while producer-price deflation deepens, reflecting weaker external demand amid the pandemic.


     — BLS releases the Producer Price Index for April. Expectations are for a year-over-year fall of 0.2% while the core PPI is seen gaining 0.8%. This compares with rises of 0.7% and 1.5% in March, respectively.
     — U.K. gross domestic product is expected to contract in the first quarter after efforts to contain the coronavirus crushed consumer spending and curtailed broader activity during the final weeks of March.


     — Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 9. Jobless claims peaked at 6.9 million for the week ending on March 28, but continue to surpass levels unheard of until this year.
     — Fed Balance Sheet
     — Money Supply


     — Census Bureau reports Retail Sales data for April. Economists forecast sales plummeting by 10.6%, surpassing March’s 8.4% monthly decline as the steepest on record.
     — Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May. Economists forecast a minus 70 reading, better than April’s minus 78.2 figure. April’s reading was the lowest level in the survey’s history by a wide margin.
     — University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Consensus estimates are for a 68 reading, below April’s 71.8. The index was last below 70 in 2011.
     — BLS releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March. Expectations are for 5.9 million job openings on the last business day of March, down from 6.9 million in February.
     — China’s industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment data for March are expected to show the worst of the country’s downturn has passed.
     — Figures from Germany’s statistics agency are anticipated to show that the eurozone’s largest economy contracted, though less sharply than Italy, Spain and France during the first quarter.


Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events


Monday, May 11

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • County Estimates: Cattle & Sheep
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • AmSpec releases Malaysia’s palm oil export data for May 1-10
  • Brazil 2020-21 orange crop estimate, Sao Paulo
  • Earnings: BRF, Wilmar
  • Holiday: Malaysia

     Energy reports and events:

  • Earnings: Thai Oil, Continental Resources

Tuesday, May 12


     Ag reports and events:

  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Cotton Ginnings, Annual
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Market and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • Season Average Price Forecasts
  • County Estimates: Cotton
  • China agriculture ministry’s (CASDE) monthly supply and demand report
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s data on end-April palm oil stockpiles, production, exports
  • Brazil crop agency Conab report on soybean, corn production, area and yield
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Council’s webinar on coronavirus impact on palm oil trade
  • French agriculture ministry releases crop estimates
  • Intertek palm oil export data for May 1-10

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
  • Earnings: Saudi Aramco

Wednesday, May 13


Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Feedgrains Database
  • Wheat data
  • FranceAgriMer monthly cereals balance sheet
  • Vietnam Customs’ data on April coffee, rice, rubber exports

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles
  • OPEC monthly report

Thursday, May 14


     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook
  • Oil Crops Outlook
  • Dairy Monthly Tables & Dairy Quarterly Data
  • Feed Outlook
  • Rice Outlook
  • Wheat Outlook
  • Turkey Hatchery
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Earnings: JBS, Suedzucker, GrainCorp

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • IEA monthly report
  • Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data
  • Russia refining maintenance schedule
  • Earnings: Japex, Petrobas

Friday, May 15


     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables
  • North American Flour Milling Products Summary
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia’s palm oil export data for May 1-15
  • Malaysia CPO export tax rate for June (tentative)

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts
  • China output data (April)



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