Trade Guess Was Too Low on Corn Crop and Carryover

Posted on 07/11/2019 11:00 AM

2019 U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

USDA

13.875

166.0

Average est.

13.664

165.0

USDA June

13.68

166.0

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

USDA

3.845

48.5

Average est.

3.883

48.6

USDA June

4.150

49.5

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

USDA

22.00

845

Average est.*

21.86

NA

USDA June

22.00

842

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

2.340

2.010

Average est.

2.197

1.692

USDA June

2.195

1.675

 

Soybeans – billion bushels

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

1.050

0.795

Average est.

1.044

0.812

USDA June

1.070

1.045

 

Wheat – billion bushels

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

1.072

1.000

Average est.

NA

1.043

USDA June

1.102

1.072

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

5.00

6.70

Average est.*

NA

6.53

USDA June

4.65

6.40

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

328.75

298.92

Without China

118.92

107.10

Average est.

325.93

292.48

USDA June

325.38

290.52

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

112.98

104.53

Without China

91.78

83.15

Average est.

112.77

109.17

USDA June

112.80

112.66

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

275.15

286.46

Without China

135.45

140.57

Average est.

275.75

292.43

USDA June

276.57

294.34

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

2019-20

USDA

79.27

80.42

Without China

43.91

47.43

Average est. *

NA

77.38

USDA June

77.53

77.26

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

Global Production Highlights

Corn – MMT

 

2018-19

July (June)

2019-20

July (June)

 

U.S.

366.29 (366.29)

352.44 (347.49)

 

Argentina

51.00 (49.00)

50.00 (50.00)

 

Brazil

101.00 (101.00)

101.00 (101.00)

 

South Africa

11.50 (11.50)

14.00 (14.00)

 

Ukraine

35.81 (35.81)

34.00 (33.00)

 

China

257.33 (257.33)

254.00 (254.00)

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2018-19

July (June)

2019-20

July (June)

 

U.S.

123.66 (123.66)

104.64 (112.95)

 

Argentina

56.00 (56.00)

53.00 (53.00)

 

Brazil

117.00 (117.00)

123.00 (123.00)

 

Paraguay

9.00 (9.00)

10.20 (10.20)

 

China

15.90 (15.90)

17.00 (17.00)

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2018-19

July (June)

2019-20

July (June)

 

U.S.

51.29 (51.29)

51.78 (51.78)

 

Argentina

19.50 (19.50)

20.00 (20.00)

 

Australia

17.30 (17.30)

22.50 (22.50)

 

Canada

31.80 (31.80)

34.50 (34.50)

 

EU

137.22 (137.22)

153.80 (153.80)

 

Russia

71.69 (71.69)

78.00 (78.00)

 

Ukraine

25.06 (25.06)

30.00 (30.00)

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2018-19

July (June)

2019-20

July (June)

 

U.S.

18.37 (18.37)

22.00 (22.00)

 

Australia

2.40 (2.40)

1.90 (1.90)

 

Brazil

12.80 (12.80)

12.00 (12.00)

 

India

26.50 (26.00)

29.00 (28.50)

 

China

27.75 (27.75)

27.75 (27.75)

 

 

U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.921

Average est.

1.908

USDA June

1.903

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

USDA

1.291

Average est.

1.277

USDA June

1.274

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

804

Average est.

799

USDA June

794

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

USDA

259

Average est.

255

USDA June

258

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

USDA

227

Average est.

223

USDA June

222

Other spring wheat – million bu.

USDA

572

Average est.

569

USDA June

NA

Durum wheat – million bu.

USDA

58

Average est.

59

USDA June

NA

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