Slow Emergence Worrisome with Mid-month Nearing

Posted on 06/10/2019 3:57 PM

Farmers took advantage of a recent window of warmer, drier weather to push corn planting to 83% complete as of June 9, which was right in line with expectations but still well behind the five-year average pace of 99% at this point in the season. Based on March intentions, that implies 15.775 million acres have yet to be seeded.

Progress is lagging across the Corn Belt, with the most severe delays occurring in the eastern states of the region and South Dakota. Planting is 93% complete in Iowa (100% on average), with Illinois at 73% complete (100%), Nebraska at 94% (99%), Minnesota at 92% (99%), South Dakota at 64% (99%), Kansas at 89% (97%), Indiana at 67% (98%) and Ohio at 50% complete (96% on average).

Also striking, just 62% of the corn crop had emerged as of Sunday, which is 31 percentage points behind the norm for this point in the season. The lagging development of the crop heightens the need for an extended growing season and raises concern about the crop’s yield potential.

Today’s report also included USDA’s initial crop condition update of the season, and the wide range of pre-report expectations spoke to uncertainty as to what statisticians would report. USDA said that 59% of the crop was in “good” to “excellent” condition, which was five points higher than the average trade guess but 18 points under last year at this time.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

2

NA

1

Poor

7

NA

3

Fair

32

NA

19

Good

52

NA

59

Excellent

7

NA

18

 

Soybean planting accelerates, but still a lot of ground to make up

Sixty percent of the U.S. soybean crop had been planted as of Sunday, a 21-point jump from last week and four points more advanced than the market anticipated. But while producers made big strides over the past week, progress is still well behind the five-year average pace of 88% complete with midmonth approaching. That implies 33.847 million acres have yet to be planted.

The state-by-state breakdown shows Illinois has planted 49% of its crop (91% on average), with Iowa at 70% complete (95%), Minnesota at 79% (96%), North Dakota at 88% (93%), Missouri at 37% (73%), Nebraska at 79% (94%), Indiana at 42% (89%), Ohio at 32% (89%) and South Dakota at 43% complete (93% on average).

Emergence lags the five-year average by an even wider margin, with 34% of the crop out of the ground as of Sunday, which is 39 percentage points behind the norm. There will not be a condition update next week, as emergence has yet to near the halfway mark.

 

Spring wheat rating a touch lower than expected

USDA reports 97% of the spring wheat crop had been planted as of Sunday, a four-point gain over the past week and right in line with expectations. Normally, 99% of the crop is seeded at this point. The department says that 85% of the crop has emerged, which is eight points behind the five-year average.

The amount of crop rated “good” to “excellent” edged down two percentage points to 81%, which was a point lower than the market anticipated. But ratings are still well ahead of year-ago when 70% of the crop garnered top marks.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

0

0

1

Poor

1

1

2

Fair

18

16

27

Good

73

75

61

Excellent

8

8

9

 

Cotton planting falls farther behind the norm

Rains slowed cotton planting over the past week, with USDA reporting progress advanced just four percentage points to 75% complete. That’s 12 points slower than the five-year average pace for this point in the season. The lag is fairly pronounced in Texas, where 67% of the crop had been seeded as of June 9 versus 82% on average. USDA also reported that 11% of the crop was squaring as of Sunday, which is right in line with the average pace.

Crop condition ratings slipped over the past week, with USDA now rating 44% of the crop “good” to “excellent,” a two-point decline from last week but two points ahead of year-ago.  

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

7

3

3

Poor

8

10

18

Fair

41

41

37

Good

37

38

38

Excellent

7

8

4

 

Winter wheat ratings hold steady… The amount of winter wheat USDA rates in “good” to “excellent” condition held steady at 64% the week ended June 9, whereas traders expected a slight decline as some areas have received too much rain. Last year at this time, just 38% of the crop received top marks.

Harvest of the crop is just getting started, with USDA reporting 4% of it had been cut as of Sunday, six points behind the five-year average.

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