Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Posted on 05/20/2019 2:03 PM
advice

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  • May 20: Old-crop corn and wheat sales orders triggered. Details below. 

  • May 17: Old- and new-crop corn sales orders triggered. New corn sales orders advised. Details below. 

  • May 16: No changes. 

  • May 15: Increase old-crop wheat sales. Lower standing orders for old- and new-crop soybean sales. Details below. 

  • May 14: No changes. 

*Note: Check below daily to see if we recommend catch-up sales for individual markets. 

 
Corn
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 65% sold

2019 crop: 10% sold via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 65% sold

2019 crop: 10% sold via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

 

On May 20, July corn futures hit our order at $3.89 to sell 15% of 2018-crop in the cash market. You should have standing orders to sell another 15% of 2018-crop in the cash market if July futures hit $3.99. You should also have standing orders to sell 10% of 2019-crop via hedge-to-arrive contracts if December futures hit $4.15 and another 10% at $4.30.


Soybeans
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 40% sold
2019 crop: 20% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 40% sold
2019 crop: 30% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

35% hedge in July soybean futures at $8.96.

You should have standing orders to sell 15% of 2018-crop in the cash market if July soybean futures hit $8.70. You should also have standing orders to sell 10% of expected 2019-crop via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery if November futures hit $9.00. Make sure you cancel all previous orders.  


Wheat
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 90% sold
2019 crop: 15% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 90% sold
2019 crop: 15% sold 

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions 

On May 20, July SRW wheat futures hit our order at $4.76 to sell another 10% of 2018-crop in the cash market. We are willing to be a little more patient for now on selling remaining old-crop inventories and increasing 2019-crop sales.  


Cotton
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 70% sold

2019 crop: 35% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 70% sold

2019 crop: 35% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

2018 crop: 15% hedge in July cotton futures at 75.91 cents

2019 crop: 15% hedge in December cotton futures at 74.78 cents 

You should maintain the hedges in July and December futures, but be ready to exit if the market confirms a short-term low. We are willing to wait on an extended rebound to advance old-crop cash sales. 

Livestock
Cattle

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%
Futures are undervalued. Wait on a strong price recovery before considering hedges. 
Hogs

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

Continue to carry all risk in the cash market until futures signal the upside is exhausted. 


Feed
Corn

2nd qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through the end of June.

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%
You should have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through the end of June. We are targeting a drop to $3.60 or lower in July corn futures for extending coverage. 
Meal

2nd qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through mid-July.

3rd qtr. 2019

0% 

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%

You should have all soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through mid-July. You should wait until July meal futures drop to $295 or lower to get current with advised meal coverage. 

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