Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Posted on 08/16/2019 1:27 PM
advice

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  • Aug. 16: No changes. 

  • Aug. 15: No changes. 

  • Aug. 14: Extend corn-for-feed coverage. Details below. 

  • Aug. 13: No changes. 

  • Aug. 12: No changes. 

*Note: Check below daily to see if we recommend catch-up sales for individual markets. 

 
Corn
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 90% sold

2019 crop: 30% sold via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 90% sold

2019 crop: 30% sold via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

 

Hold the final 10% of 2018-crop as gambling stocks for now. We'll finish old-crop sales by the end of the marketing year on Aug. 31.  


Soybeans
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 85% sold
2019 crop: 30% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 85% sold
2019 crop: 40% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

Hold the final 15% of 2018-crop as gambling stocks for now. You should have a standing order to sell the final 15% of 2018-crop in the cash market if September soybean futures hit $9.30. We'll finish 2018-crop sales by the Aug. 31 end of the 2018-19 marketing year. 


Wheat
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 100% sold
2019 crop: 25% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 100% sold
2019 crop: 25% sold 

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions 

You should have a standing order to sell another 10% of 2019-crop in the cash market if September SRW wheat futures hit $5.65. Make sure you cancel the previous order that was in July SRW futures.  


Cotton
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 100% sold

2019 crop: 35% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 100% sold

2019 crop: 35% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

Wait on an extended price recovery for additional 2019-crop sales. 

Livestock
Cattle

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%
Fed cattle producers should continue to carry all risk in the cash market, as futures are below the cash market and should strengthen the second half of the year. 
Hogs

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

Continue to carry all risk in the cash market. 


Feed
Corn

3rd qtr. 2019

Cash and hedge coverage through October.

4th qtr. 2019

0% 

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%
You should have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through the end of September. You should maintain the long hedges at $4.58 in December corn futures; we'll now consider that our coverage through October. 
Meal

3rd qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash market through September.

4th qtr. 2019

0%

1st qtr. 2020

0%

2nd qtr. 2020

0%

You should have all soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through the end of September. Our next downside target for further extending soybean meal coverage is $290 in September futures. 

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