Lagging Development and Low Ratings Spell Trouble for Corn and Beans

Posted on 06/24/2019 3:55 PM

As expected, USDA reported 96% of the U.S. corn crop had been planted as of June 23, a four-point advance from last week and behind 100% planted at this time for the five-year average and last year. The report shows Ohio had planted 80% of its crop as of June 23, with Indiana and Michigan each at 91% planted, Illinois and Missouri both 92% planted, Wisconsin 93% planted and South Dakota and Colorado 95% finished. Typically planting is complete or just a point shy of done at this point in the season for all of these states. Other major producing states saw progress move to 99% to 100% complete.

The department reports 89% of the crop had emerged as of Sunday, which is 10 points behind the norm for this point in the season. Emergence is slowest in southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt.

Too much rain and a lack of sunshine over the past week led to a three-point decline in the amount of corn rated “good” to “excellent” to 56%. Traders had expected no change. 

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

2

1

Poor

9

8

4

Fair

32

31

18

Good

48

52

58

Excellent

8

7

19

 

Soybean planting progress and condition ratings fall short of expectations 

Soybean producers were only able to push soybean planting eight percentage points ahead over the past week to 85% complete, and some of that “progress” may have been in the form of prevent-plant acres. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected planting progress to advance to 88% complete. Progress remains well behind 97% complete for the five-year average.  

Planting progress is the slowest in Ohio (65% planted vs. 98% on average), Missouri (66% vs. 87%), Michigan (69% vs. 98%), Indiana (75% vs. 97%), Illinois (79% vs. 97%), Kentucky (80% vs. 87%), North Carolina 82% (85%), South Dakota (84% vs. 99%), Kansas (84% vs. 90%), Wisconsin (88% vs. 98%) and Arkansas (89% vs. 95%). Other major producing states are at least 90% planted.

Even more concerning, emergence lags the five-year average by 20 percentage points at 71% as of June 23. Emergence lags the five-year average in every major producing state except Louisiana, and delays are especially pronounced in Ohio (45% emerged), Michigan (48% emerged), Missouri (51% emerged) and South Dakota 57% emerged. Even some of the states where emergence is most advanced like Minnesota (87% emerged), Nebraska (85%) and Iowa (81%) lag the five-year average by double-digits.

In its initial crop condition rating of the season, USDA rated just 54% of the crop in “good” to “excellent” condition, which was five points lighter than anticipated, two points under the lowest guess in a Reuters poll of analysts and 19 points under year-ago levels.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

2

NA

1

Poor

8

NA

4

Fair

36

NA

22

Good

47

NA

58

Excellent

7

NA

15

 

Spring wheat development lags the norm by a wide margin

Just 7% of the spring wheat crop was headed as of June 23, which is well behind 29% for the five-year average. North Dakota has 2% of its crop headed (25% on average), with Minnesota at 14% (35%), South Dakota at 10% (57%) and Idaho at 18% (40%). None of the Montana crop is headed versus 13% on average.

Also of note, the amount of spring wheat rated “good” to “excellent” edged two percentage points lower to 75%. Analysts had expected no change. The amount of crop rated in the top two categories is down two points from year-ago.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

0

1

2

Poor

3

1

3

Fair

22

21

18

Good

67

69

63

Excellent

8

8

14

 

Cotton ratings edge higher… Ninety-six percent of the U.S. cotton crop had been planted as of Sunday, which is two points shy of the five-year average. Texas has seeded 95% of its crop, which is right in line with the average pace, while Georgia has seeded 98% of its crop, just a point behind the norm.

USDA reports 30% of the crop was squaring as of Sunday, which is actually two percentage points ahead of the five-year average. That includes 27% of the Texas crop versus 19% for the five-year average. Three percent of the crop is setting bolls versus 5% on average.

USDA now rates half of the cotton crop in “good” to “excellent” condition, up a percentage point from last week. Last year at this time, 42% of the crop garnered top marks.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

4

4

1

Poor

13

11

18

Fair

33

36

39

Good

45

42

35

Excellent

5

7

7

 

Rains stall winter wheat harvest… Winter wheat harvest advanced just seven percentage points to 15% complete as of Sunday, which is well behind 34% complete for the five-year average. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected an 11-point advance.

Kansas has harvested just 5% of its crop (36% for the five-year average), with Oklahoma at 43% (78%) and Texas at 58% (72%).

USDA pared the amount of winter wheat rated in “good” to “excellent” condition by three percentage points to 61%, whereas traders had expected a one-point dip. Heavy late-season rains are causing crop quality and yield concerns.

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