Corn Condition Ratings Slide

Posted on 07/22/2019 3:41 PM

Recent heat took a bit of a toll on the U.S. corn crop, dropping the amount of crop rated “good” to “excellent” (G/E) a percentage point to 57%. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had on average expected no change, but the spread of the guess range was pretty wide. The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” also climbed a percentage point to 13%.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

3

3

Poor

10

9

6

Fair

30

30

19

Good

47

48

50

Excellent

10

10

22

The development of the crop remains strikingly behind the norm for this time of the year. USDA reports 35% of the U.S. corn crop was silking as of July 21, a 31-point lag versus the five-year average. Just 36% of the Illinois crop is silking (84% on average), with Iowa at 41% (71%), Indiana at 23% (67%), Kansas at 54% (74%), Minnesota at 21% (56%), Nebraska at 40% (70%), and South Dakota at 9% silking (50% on average).

Five percent of the crop was in dough as of Sunday, which is half the average for this point in the season.              

 

Soybean rating holds steady, but conditions still well behind the norm

As expected, USDA continues to rate 54% of the U.S. soybean crop in “good” to “excellent” condition. That’s well behind the 70% G/E rating the crop had last year at this time.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

3

3

2

Poor

9

9

6

Fair

34

34

22

Good

46

46

52

Excellent

8

8

18

 

But again, the lagging development of the crop is the bigger concern. As of July 21, 40% of the crop was blooming (66% on average) and just 7% was setting pods (28%). Most top-producing states are running 20- and 30-plus points behind the norm for this point in the season. In Illinois, just 2% of the crop is setting pods (31% for the five-year average), with Indiana at 1% (32%) Iowa at 4% (28%), Minnesota at 2% (23%), Missouri at 2% (16%), Nebraska at 8% (25%), and North Dakota at 1% setting pods (25%).

 

Spring wheat crop improves a bit

USDA once again rated 76% of the crop in G/E condition, unchanged from week-ago levels. But the department did shift three percent of the crop from the “good” to the “excellent” category.  Traders had anticipated no change. Last year at this time, 79% of the crop got top marks.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

0

0

1

Poor

4

4

3

Fair

20

20

17

Good

63

66

65

Excellent

13

10

14

 

Nine-two percent of the crop was headed as of July 21, which is two percentage points behind the average. North Dakota has 93% of the crop headed (steady with the average), with Montana at 87% headed (91%) and Minnesota at 100% headed (96% on average).

 

Cotton ratings rise again

Recent moisture did the U.S. cotton crop some good as a whole, with the amount of crop in G/E condition climbing four percentage points to 60%. Last year at this time, just 39% of the crop fell in those categories.

 

This week

Last week

Year-ago

Very poor

2

3

14

Poor

8

12

19

Fair

30

29

28

Good

50

47

32

Excellent

10

9

7

 

USDA reported that as of July 21, 78% of the crop was squaring, two points behind the 2014 through 2018 average, and 33% of the crop was setting bolls, four percentage points behind the norm at this point in the season. Texas has 24% of the crop setting bolls, just two points behind the five-year average for this time.

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