Lots of Questions Hoping to be Answered in Hogs & Pigs Report

Posted on Tue, 12/22/2020 - 09:59

Lots of questions hoping to be answered by Hogs & Pigs Report… On average, analysts surveyed by Urner Barry expect USDA will report the Dec. 1 hog herd down 1% from year-ago. The breeding herd is expected to be down 1.8% from last year. The market hog inventory, on average, is expected to be down 1%. But there’s an unusually wide range of pre-report estimates, especially for the heavier weights. That’s partly due to slaughter numbers running far below what USDA’s September Hogs & Pigs Report implied. We believe USDA will downwardly revise its previous numbers on Wednesday, but based on the pre-report expectations, some analysts believe hog supplies remain backed up and slaughter numbers will trend heavier through winter.

Besides the market hog inventory and any potential revisions to past data, the other primary focal point of the report will be farrowings – fall levels along with projected farrowings through spring. All three categories are expected to be down from year-ago levels, suggesting the U.S. hog herd will continue to contract from levels traders anticipate as of Dec. 1.

The report will be released at 2:00 p.m. CT on Wednesday. Check back following the report for our analysis. 

 

 

Range of estimates
(% of year-ago)

Average estimate
(% of year-ago)

All hogs Dec. 1

97.2-100.2

99.0

Kept for breeding

97.2-98.5

98.2

Kept for marketing

97.1-100.3

99.0

 

 

 

Market hog inventory

 

 

  under 50 lbs.

95.8-98.9

97.6

  50 lbs.-119 lbs.

96.9-100.5

98.3

  120 lbs.-179 lbs.

97.6-104.1

100.4

  Over 180 lbs.

96.7-106.5

101.9

 

 

 

Pig crop (Sept.-Nov.)

95.5-98.4

96.6

Pigs per litter (Sept.-Nov.)

99.8-101.0

100.3

Farrowings (Sept.-Nov.)

95.5-97.4

98.2

Farrowing intentions (Dec.-Feb.)

96.6-99.3

95.5

Farrowing intentions (March-May)

96.9-99.5

98.6