Phosphates Fall, Possibly Signaling Opportunity

Posted on 07/09/2020 6:21 PM

 

Fertilizer prices were lower amid mixed price action.

Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) softened 3.03 points to 528.26.

With the calendar flip to July, we begin to measure expected new-crop corn revenue based on the December 2021 contract. By July 1, the majority of fertilizer applications are behind us with the exception of some late season sidedress or flown-on N. And so we look ahead to fall applications, and are looking for opportunities to book post-harvest product with an eye out for opportunities to lock in a deal for spring 2021.

At present, we feel no urgency to book fertilizer for fall or for spring, although wholesale phosphate is firming steadily. Phosphates and urea remain on our radar, but after firming against the grain last week, DAP and MAP are both moderately lower this week. Same story with urea. If we see phosphates firm next week we will likely advise booking a portion for fall application.

Fertilizer
6/22/20
6/29/20
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$493.21
$489.46
+$2.65
$492.11
Anhydrous
DAP
$422.39
$426.66
-$6.18
$420.48
DAP
MAP
$416.24
$422.29
-$7.46
$414.83
MAP
Potash
$356.01
$353.39
+$1.90
$355.29
Potash
UAN28
$240.13
$239.19
-$1.36
$237.83
UAN28
UAN32
$270.79
$264.91
+$2.51
$267.41
UAN32
Urea
$374.95
$374.61
-$7.83
$366.79
Urea
Composite
532.69
531.29
-3.03
528.26
Composite

Corn Futures

  • December 2021 corn futures closed Thursday July 2 at $3.74 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $617.73 per acre, up $89.73 on the annual switchover to the December 2021 contract.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 528.26 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 92.76 points and stands at -89.47.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Nitrogen prices were mixed on the week with our biggest price move coming from urea.
  • Urea softened $7.83 on the week led by a $25.28 cut in Iowa and a $2.74 price hike in Minnesota. Offsetting, Missouri dove $67.90 lower as South Dakota softened $16.30 and Michigan dropped $15.80.
  • UAN28% fell as Ohio softened $17.67 and Michigan fell $15.56. Iowa led gains, firming $24.86 and Illinois gained $2.55 per short ton.
  • Anhydrous ammonia led gains in the nitrogen segment with Iowa up $36.60 and South Dakota adding $14.68. Michigan fell $15.68 as Minnesota softened $17.60.
  • UAN32% was mildly higher with Missouri up $35.41 and Iowa firming $8.69. Michigan 32% fell $11.80 and Wisconsin and Minnesota each softened roughly $4.50.

Phosphate

  • Phosphates were lower on the week.
  • MAP fell $7.46 regionally with Illinois down $52 dollars even and Michigan off $26 dollars. Iowa led gains firming $12.60 as Indiana gained $4.65.p and k indices chart
  • DAP was lower as well with Ohio $33.10 lower and Michigan down $16.00. Indiana firmed $7.36 as Missouri gained $2.38.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale phosphates were mixed to mostly higher at U.S. terminals in the week ended July third.
  • Given wholesale phosphate price changes to the upside this week reported by various other sources, we are very close to pulling the trigger on phosphate for fall applications.

Potash

  • Potash prices gained nearly 2 bucks on the week.
  • Iowa led gains, firming $14.20 and North Dakota added $7.56. Meanwhile, Missouri softened $7.51 and Michigan fell $3.45.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale potash was sideways at NOLA and softened in the Corn Belt.
  • Our indexed potash figure remains at a steep premium to anhydrous ammonia and at a slight discount to our Nutrient Composite Index.

nutrient composite index chart

 

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