Ohio Drives Anhydrous Price Higher

Posted on 09/16/2019 3:14 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were lower across the board with the exception of anhydrous ammonia, which firmed $8.47 on the week.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) softened 2.01 points to 581.65.

We advised growers book 50% of expected fall and spring phosphate needs last week. We suggested booking just a portion in case retail markets continue to fall despite higher wholesale prices. That has turned out to be the case this week with both DAP and MAP down a fair amount. We will wait for prices to turn around before we complete booking phosphate for fall and spring.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Anhydrous ammonia firmed $8.47 on the week but most states were unchanged or lower. Ohio posted a harsh $151.00 per short ton price increase this week, placing Ohio anhydrous prices well above neighboring states and, indeed, well above the other eleven states in our survey. Were it not for Ohio, price softness across the rest of the Midwest would have pressured our regional average NH3 price by a few bucks. I do not believe Ohio's sharp price increase this week necessarily means the other states in our survey will firm in kind. But it bears noting, and if other states begin to follow Ohio higher, we will finish booking fall NH3 in a big hurry.
  • UAN32% was lower on the week with Indiana off $13.50 and Nebraska down $6.67.
  • Urea was lower on a $4.71 price cut in Illinois and a $4.62 dip in Minnesota.
  • UAN28% fell slightly on the week led by a decline in Minnesota and price softness in Kansas.

You should be at least 30% filled on anhydrous for fall and for spring applications. We do recommend you fill fall needs before combines roll in your state, so keep a close watch on your local prices using the map on the profarmer.com homepage.

Phosphatep and k indices chart

  • Phosphates were lower on the week with MAP leading the way downward.
  • MAP fell $8.63 on the week with Iowa off $54.10, Minnesota down $22.00 and Ohio softening $11.60 per short ton.
  • DAP was lower as well with Indiana down $12.60 and Kansas off $10.60.
  • Wholesale phosphate prices were mixed with DAP and MAP each higher at NOLA but lower at other U.S. terminals in the week ended September 13.
  • Book 50% of expected fall and spring phosphate needs at current prices and be prepared to fill remaining needs on signs retail phosphates have bottomed.

Potash

  • Potash was lower on the week with Minnesota down $5.90 and Nebraska off $4.13.
  • No state posted a higher price on potash this week.
  • Our indexed potash figure remains at a premium to anhydrous ammonia. Our analysis would say that suggests upside risk for NH3. But since anhydrous would have been lower without Ohio's sharp reversal to the upside, we will wait for the market to sort itself out before we take action on either NH3 or potash.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday September 13 at $4.06 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $670.56 per acre -- higher 17.60 on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 581.65 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 19.61 points and now stands at -88.91.
Fertilizer
9/2/19
9/9/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$522.97
$521.66
+$8.47
$530.13
Anhydrous
DAP
$480.40
$475.51
-$2.87
$472.64
DAP
MAP
$475.65
$473.85
-$8.63
$465.22
MAP
Potash
$382.99
$382.75
-$1.44
$381.31
Potash
UAN28
$261.45
$261.41
-36 cents
$261.05
UAN28
UAN32
$296.04
$294.32
-$1.53
$292.78
UAN32
Urea
$411.34
$411.13
-$1.39
$409.74
Urea
Composite
585.66
583.66
-2.01
581.65
Composite

650

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