Fertilizers Continue Downtrend

Posted on 07/12/2019 3:46 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were lower on the week with only DAP posting a higher price.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) softened 0.89 points to 628.98.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Nitrogen prices were lower across the board led by anhydrous ammonia which has softened roughly $2.10 per short ton for a few consecutive weeks. Nebraska led declines in NH3 with North Dakota and Indiana also lower on the week.
  • Urea fell on softness in Kansas and Ohio.
  • UAN solutions appear to be in something of a holding pattern with 32% priced very near the overpriced urea, and 28% more reflective of anhydrous pricing. Most states were unchanged on 32% as Ohio led declines in 28%.
  • Sidedress will continue on this late crop which will keep a floor under UAN solutions... the same will be true of urea, but to a lesser degree.
  • On an indexed basis, 28% is priced at parity with NH3. Urea is overpriced as i mentioned above, and 32% is priced at parity with urea. It is something of a tale of two nitrogens (see chart at right). Urea has been overpriced compared to NH3 for some time, and 32% is likely matching that price point as urea has set the upside price tolerance in the nitrogen segment in recent months. This week's decline in urea suggests 32% is due to fall back as well. That p&k indices chartmove is, however, likely to be very gradual.

Phosphate

  • Phosphates were mixed on the week with DAP posting the only price gain in our survey, up 58 cents per short ton on strength in Illinois. Most states were unchanged on DAP this week... other gains were less than 50 cents per short ton, and Missouri posted a 2 cents per ton decline.
  • MAP was $1.06 lower by the short ton this week with Declines in Wisconsin and Illinois nearly offset by a $21.79 rise in Indiana MAP prices.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale phosphate prices were lower at U.S. terminals in the week ended July 12.

Potashpotash indexed and NH3 chart

  • Potash was slightly lower on the week led by declines in Wisconsin and Indiana.
  • According to data from MosaicCo., wholesale potash was lower at U.S. terminals this week.
  • We continue to watch the relationship between our raw anhydrous price and our indexed potash price (see chart at right). The two tend to track together -- loosely -- and potash is priced well below anhydrous on that basis. That may suggest anhydrous is overpriced. If potash is right, anhydrous will head for $580 per short ton over the summer offseason months.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday July 5 at $4.18 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $691.68 per acre -- higher $5.28 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 629.98 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 6.17 points and now stands at -62.70.
Fertilizer
6/24/19
7/1/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$609.99
$607.92
-$2.24
$605.67
Anhydrous
DAP
$508.94
$505.38
+58 cents
$505.96
DAP
MAP
$525.64
$525.68
-$1.06
$524.62
MAP
Potash
$393.43
$393.48
-25 cents
$393.23
Potash
UAN28
$281.75
$281.61
-12 cents
$281.50
UAN28
UAN32
$317.23
$316.71
-3 cents
$316.68
UAN32
Urea
$431.63
$430.04
-$1.74
$428.29
Urea
Composite
631.33
629.87
-0.89
628.98
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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